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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted

My local Cinemark FINALLY set its WEDNESDAY schedule just 10 minutes ago...nothing like last minute!

 

Anyway, for that day, Mary Poppins is ONLY getting 7 showings on about 1.5 screens (2 1st showings and 2 prime 7pm showings...single screen for rest of shows).  REALLY low set, since they could switch lower Friday like my Regal local is likely doing...all these movies are gonna smoosh each other...gonna check to see if Friday sets done now...

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Ezen Baklattan Global Phenomenon

Ezen Baklattan

Posted
Posted

Here are the movies leaving my theaters with the holiday onslaught:

 

THEATER 1 (20-PLEX):

Bhajjo Vero Ve

Odiyan

Vox Lux

Widows

Once Upon a Deadpool

Instant Family

Green Book

The Grinch

Bohemian Rhapsody

Creed II

 

THEATER 2 (16-PLEX):

The Wife

A Star is Born

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Nutcracker and the 4 Realms

Widows

Instant Family

Boy Erased

Green Book

 

THEATER 4 (16-PLEX):

Possession of Hannah Grace

Widows

Robin Hood

Once Upon a Deadpool

Instant Family

Fantastic Beasts II

 

THEATER 5 (14-PLEX):

Instant Family

Nutcracker and the 4 Realms

Once Upon a Deadpool

Bohemian Rhapsody

A Star is Born

Widows

Fantastic Beasts II

Possession of Hannah Grace

Robin Hood

Creed II

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)

My local Cinemark also set its Friday/weekend schedule...bloodbath of holdovers as expected...here's the set, and it's low for everything (but somehow, Spidey kept its 2nd screen - wow!)

 

NEW

Aquaman (almost 2 - 9 showings - 2 3d, 7 2d) - very small set for a superhero movie, but when almost 4 screens are supers, how many more can it get?

Bumblebee (1 - 6 showings - 2 3d, 4 2d)

2 foreign films (.4 - 1 single 10pm showing each)

 

RETURNING

Mary Poppins (1.5 - 7 showings - same set as Wed)

Mortal Engines (1)

Spidey (now 2 full screens and 10 showings)

The Mule (1)

Deadpool (.5 - 2 showings - shares with MP2)

Ralph (.8 - no late show - foreign film #1 has it)

Grinch (.8 - no late show - foreign film #2 has it)

 

There is one screen open.  So, this theater won't be booking both Marwen and Second Act...heck, it may not book either, and save the screen for adding showings...we'll see...

 

And for holdovers, it was Dec 12 (Deadpool) and Dec 14 openers (all 3)...and then the 2 animated movies...and every other movie is gone.  Grinch and Deadpool will be gone on Dec 25...not sure if anything else will follow, or if that will be enough to fit whatever the theater plans to open then...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, filmlover said:

My theater is getting 9 new movies across 20 screens between tomorrow through Christmas Day. Jesus. Theater drops about to be ugly. 

 

Thus answers the oft asked question of why studios don't want to open anything notable the first two weeks of December.  They lose those screens way too fast and miss out on all the holidays (before and after)

 

Edited by TalismanRing
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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted (edited)

My local AMC is doing this:

 

Aquaman x2

Poppins x1.5

Bumblebee

Holmes

Marwen

Second Act

Vice

Spider-Verse

The Mule

Grinch x0.5

Ralph x0.5

Mortal Engines x0.5

 

Before Vice and Holmes open, Deadpool is on half a screen, and ME still has a full screen. Also, Second Act and Marwen are getting pushed into the smaller auditoriums when the Christmas Day openers release.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted

Other 12's set for Friday (Dec 21)

 

NEW

Aquaman (1.4 - 2 3d/ 5 2d) - so light for this theater and a supers movie...

Bumblebee (1 - 3 3d / 2 2d) - strange set to have more 3d than 2d...

Second Act (1 - 5)

Marwen (1 - 5)

 

RETURNING

MP2 (1.2 - 6 showings - drops from 13 Wed - 1 full screen and 1 extra 7pm show)

Mortal Engines (1)

Spidey (1 - already dropped additional screen)

The Mule (1)

Grinch (1)

Ralph (.6 - 3 showings - all matinee)

Beasts (.2 - 1st showing)

Creed (.2 - last showing)

 

This theater has also held about a screen - since they don't do foreign films, it's almost certain they held it to give showings around.  They either pulled the MP 2nd full screen or Spidey's 2nd to do it last minute...I'm thinking MP2, b/c it's quite a drop from the Wed set...

 

So, Dec 14s are on, still with full screens, although Spidey lost his 2nd...both animateds survive...and Beasts and Creed keep a pity showing for now...maybe they get more if the new crappy releases crash and burn...

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted

With the low sets at both of my theaters for MP2 and Aquaman, both of these are not gonna open gigantic...they are gonna display the Christmas week slow burn b/c they just don't have enough showings to get anywhere...I always say that every screen these two 12 screen theaters give a movie gives that movie a $50M max ceiling for an OW.  With Aquaman getting almost 2 and 1.4, that seems to indicate $80Mish is the absolute max for the 3 day opening (plus its $2.9M from before)...with MP2 with even less (1.5 and 1.2), I'd say $60-$65M is gonna be the weekend 3 day max for the film...

 

PS - Now, both 12s saved a screen, so if either one of these movies gets it, maybe I'll rethink the max:)...

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Daenys Cult Classic

Daenys

Posted
Posted

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_past24hours.txt

  

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2018-12-18 01:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	18.804%	12727	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
2	14.960%	10125	Aquaman
3	14.001%	9476	Mary Poppins Returns (2018)
4	10.159%	6876	The Mule (2018)
5	04.503%	3048	Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)
6	03.271%	2214	Ralph Breaks the Internet
7	03.072%	2079	Mortal Engines
8	02.841%	1923	Bumblebee
18	00.954%	646	Second Act
21	00.659%	446	Vice (2018)
22	00.626%	424	Welcome to Marwen
27	00.545%	369	Holmes & Watson
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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 12/18/2018 at 2:06 AM, TalismanRing said:

Fandango chart under cut

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday
Mary Poppins Returns (Wed) 7,713      
Aquaman 8,502      
Bumblebee 1,553      

 

Second Act 353      
Welcome To Marwen 299      

 

 

Early comps - taking in mind this is December and Sunday should also have a low drop so not ideal

 

MPR :7,713 (Mon) - Wed openers - not a lot of good comps 

211% of CRA  = $74.785m  5 Day (summer)
110% of WIR = $93.225  5 Day (Thanksgiving)


AQM: 8.502 (Mon) 

62% of Venom = $50m  
36.7% of Deadpool 2: $46.12m
62% of Solo: = $52.43m (MD w/e)

 

Bumblebee - not sure how walk up heavy Transformers is.  More or less than Jurassic? 

If the same then ~ $24.8m.  About the same if using Mortal Engines as a comp. 
 

With Tues numbers-

 

MPR pace falls sharply vs WIR2 (now 75%) and  CRA (now 159%) for a $37.5-42.17m 3 day and a $63.38m & $56.76m 5 Day

 

EDIT:  MPR did not have Tues night previews unlike WIR2 and CRA so invalid Tues comps

 

AQM's % rises slightly against Venom and falls slightly against DP2 and Solo - between a $42.53m and $56m 3 Day (not including $2.9m early Amazon previews)

 

Bumbleebee falls off pace of  JW2 - now 14% for a $21m w/e and ME for a $17.5m w/e

         
Mary Poppins Returns (Wed) 7,713 9,137    
Aquaman 8,502 9,671    
Bumblebee 1,553 1,817    
Second Act 353 611    
Welcome To Marwen 299 403    

 

 

Edited by TalismanRing
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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted 
http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_report.txt

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-12-19 05:00:28 Central
TICKETS	SHOW DATE	DAY	MOVIE
13	2018-12-17	MON	Mary Poppins Returns
585	2018-12-18	TUE	Mary Poppins Returns
11953	2018-12-19	WED	Mary Poppins Returns
4440	2018-12-20	THU	Mary Poppins Returns
5757	2018-12-21	FRI	Mary Poppins Returns
5783	2018-12-22	SAT	Mary Poppins Returns
3846	2018-12-23	SUN	Mary Poppins Returns
686	2018-12-19	WED	Aquaman
14772	2018-12-20	THU	Aquaman
14694	2018-12-21	FRI	Aquaman
10562	2018-12-22	SAT	Aquaman
4606	2018-12-23	SUN	Aquaman
337	2018-12-17	MON	Bumblebee
489	2018-12-18	TUE	Bumblebee
63	2018-12-19	WED	Bumblebee
1989	2018-12-20	THU	Bumblebee
2162	2018-12-21	FRI	Bumblebee
1564	2018-12-22	SAT	Bumblebee
773	2018-12-23	SUN	Bumblebee
246	2018-12-20	THU	Second Act
498	2018-12-21	FRI	Second Act
211	2018-12-22	SAT	Second Act
120	2018-12-23	SUN	Second Act
132	2018-12-20	THU	Welcome to Marwen
231	2018-12-21	FRI	Welcome to Marwen
152	2018-12-22	SAT	Welcome to Marwen
58	2018-12-23	SUN	Welcome to Marwen

 

 

 

 

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Stewart Box Office Gold

Stewart

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_report.txt

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-12-19 05:00:28 Central
TICKETS	SHOW DATE	DAY	MOVIE

13	2018-12-17	MON	Mary Poppins Returns
585	2018-12-18	TUE	Mary Poppins Returns
11953	2018-12-19	WED	Mary Poppins Returns
4440	2018-12-20	THU	Mary Poppins Returns
5757	2018-12-21	FRI	Mary Poppins Returns
5783	2018-12-22	SAT	Mary Poppins Returns
3846	2018-12-23	SUN	Mary Poppins Returns

686	2018-12-19	WED	Aquaman
14772	2018-12-20	THU	Aquaman
14694	2018-12-21	FRI	Aquaman
10562	2018-12-22	SAT	Aquaman
4606	2018-12-23	SUN	Aquaman

337	2018-12-17	MON	Bumblebee
489	2018-12-18	TUE	Bumblebee
63	2018-12-19	WED	Bumblebee
1989	2018-12-20	THU	Bumblebee
2162	2018-12-21	FRI	Bumblebee
1564	2018-12-22	SAT	Bumblebee
773	2018-12-23	SUN	Bumblebee

246	2018-12-20	THU	Second Act
498	2018-12-21	FRI	Second Act
211	2018-12-22	SAT	Second Act
120	2018-12-23	SUN	Second Act

132	2018-12-20	THU	Welcome to Marwen
231	2018-12-21	FRI	Welcome to Marwen
152	2018-12-22	SAT	Welcome to Marwen
58	2018-12-23	SUN	Welcome to Marwen

 

 

 

 

As expected I think. Mary Poppins looks very backloaded and spread out. Aquaman a lot more frontloaded at the moment (could easily change if and when WOM kicks in)

 

Wtf is going on with Bumblebee Monday-Wednesday?

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

As expected I think. Mary Poppins looks very backloaded and spread out. Aquaman a lot more frontloaded at the moment (could easily change if and when WOM kicks in)

 

Wtf is going on with Bumblebee Monday-Wednesday?

My guess is early corporate or event showings. MPR and AQM also have tickets sold before previews (and after early previews)

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Eric the Fall Guy Global Phenomenon

Eric the Fall Guy

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

With Tues numbers-

 

MPR pace falls sharply vs WIR2 (now 75%) and  CRA (now 159%) for a $37.5-42.17m 3 day and a $63.38m & $56.76m 5 Day

 

EDIT:  MPR did not have Tues night previews unlike WIR2 and CRA so invalid Tues comps

 

 

 

CRA didn't have Tuesday previews either

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Eric the Fall Guy Global Phenomenon

Eric the Fall Guy

Posted
Posted

Mary Poppins (3-Day) 455 1366 33.31%
Mary Poppins (5-Day) 631 2278 27.70%

 

I'm using the 5-Day for all comparisons:

 

163% of Bad Moms 2 (34.6M)

87% of Coco (63.3M)

219% of Jumanji (111.6M)

356% of Greatest Showman (47.8M)

387% of Crazy Rich Asians (136.6M)

86% of Ralph Breaks the Internet (72.8M)

 

The Disney comparisons seem the most sound and reasonable, but the mediocre sales from Pulse on Tuesday do give me pause in believing it could turn out more like the Greatest Showman comp. Let's just be optimistic and it hits around the Ralph comp.

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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Spagspiria said:

Here are the movies leaving my theaters with the holiday onslaught:

 

THEATER 1 (20-PLEX):

Bhajjo Vero Ve

Odiyan

Vox Lux

Widows

Once Upon a Deadpool

Instant Family

Green Book

The Grinch

Bohemian Rhapsody

Creed II

 

THEATER 2 (16-PLEX):

The Wife

A Star is Born

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Nutcracker and the 4 Realms

Widows

Instant Family

Boy Erased

Green Book

 

THEATER 4 (16-PLEX):

Possession of Hannah Grace

Widows

Robin Hood

Once Upon a Deadpool

Instant Family

Fantastic Beasts II

 

THEATER 5 (14-PLEX):

Instant Family

Nutcracker and the 4 Realms

Once Upon a Deadpool

Bohemian Rhapsody

A Star is Born

Widows

Fantastic Beasts II

Possession of Hannah Grace

Robin Hood

Creed II

Okay for fun:

 

Theater 1 (18 Screens):

The Grinch

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Widows

Robin Hood

Once Upon a Deadpool

Vox Lux

 

Theater 2 (12 screens):

Creed II

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Bohemian Rhapsody

2.0

Default

 

Theater 3 (14 screens):

The Favourite

Vox Lux

Anna and the Apocalypse

Once Upon a Deadpool

Bohemian Rhapsody

 

Theater 4 (12 screens):

Creed II

Green Book

Once Upon a Deadpool

 

 

Hometown Theater 1 (16 screens):

The Possession of Hannah Grace

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Instant Family

Creed II

Bohemian Rhapsody

 

Hometown Theater 2 (14 screens):

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Robin Hood

The Possession of Hannah Grace

Widows

A Star is Born

Once Upon a Deadpool

 

insert joke about Thanos snapping his fingers and half the movies disappearing here

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