The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Avengers: Endgame: AMC Orange 30 - Thursday Night Report

 

IMAX 2D

 

7:00 PM - 448/456

11:00 PM - 423/456

3:00 AM - 222/456

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 193/197

10:00 PM - 190/197

2:00 AM - 184/197

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 123/161

6:45 PM - 121/161

7:15 PM - 130/178

7:45 PM - 105/161

8:15 PM - 101/159

8:45 PM - 64/97

9:15 PM - 89/139

9:45 PM - 53/97

10:15 PM - 93/161

10:45 PM - 48/161

11:15 PM - 41/178

11:45 PM - 12/161

12:15 AM - 2/159

 

Standard 2D

 

6:00 PM - 156/190

6:30 PM - 216/275

7:00 PM - 213/275

7:15 PM - 131/161

7:30 PM - 183/235

8:00 PM - 330/405

8:15 PM - 128/178

8:30 PM - 331/405

9:00 PM - 174/235

9:30 PM - 137/190

10:00 PM - 129/190

10:30 PM - 200/275

11:00 PM - 107/159

11:30 PM - 159/275

12:00 AM - 216/405

12:30 AM - 101/405

 

Total

 

5553/8190 (67.8%)

Just those show times should be able to notch at least 1500 more tickets sold by this time on 4/25. I wonder how many more they will add. By the looks of it, they're currently using 20 of the 30 screens. 

 

 

[stfletch]

I also checked the two big IMAX screens around Boston, in Reading and Natick. I saw AIW at Natick last year and have tickets for 3pm Saturday for AEG in Reading. They're both single screen and attached  to Jordan's Furniture stores?!? Unfortunately neither have reserved seating so I can only track sell-outs.

 

Reading is 4k Laser IMAX and has 500 seats!: 

T: 1/2 SO (1 LA)  F: 1/4 SO  Sa: 3/4 SO  Su: 0/4 SO

 

Natick is Digital IMAX and has 279 seats: 

T: 2/2 SO  F: 1/4 SO  Sa: 1/4 SO (1 LA )  Su: 0/4 SO

 

SO=Sell Out

LA=Limited Availability - from past experience I know this generally mean only a handful of seats left and you you often can't buy online anymore and have to ring-up to check.

 

And here I can at least compare with AIW because I was checking up until opening day last year and only the 7pm Thursday and Friday 7pm showings sold out prior to the final day at both locations. There were no sell-outs on Saturday until presumably the final day walk-ups.

 

Full details in Spoiler-Tag

 

Spoiler   Reading         Natick       Thursday 6.00pm 3D Low Avail.   Thursday 6.00pm 3D Sold Out Thursday 10.00pm 2D Sold Out   Thursday 10.00pm 2D Sold Out                   Friday 11.00am 3D Availability   Friday 11.00am 3D Availability Friday 7.00pm 3D Sold Out   Friday 7.00pm 3D Sold Out Friday 3.00pm 2D Availability   Friday 3.00pm 2D Availability Friday 11.00pm 2D Availability   Friday 11.00pm 2D Availability                   Saturday 11.00am 3D Sold Out   Saturday 11.00am 3D Availability Saturday 7.00pm 3D Sold Out   Saturday 7.00pm 3D Sold Out Saturday 3.00pm 2D Sold Out   Saturday 3.00pm 2D Low Avail. Saturday 11.00pm 2D Availability   Saturday 11.00pm 2D Availability                   Sunday 11.00am 3D Availability   Sunday 11.00am 3D Availability Sunday 7.00pm 3D Availability   Sunday 7.00pm 3D Availability Sunday 3.00pm 2D Availability   Sunday 3.00pm 2D Availability Sunday 11.00pm 2D Availability   Sunday 11.00pm 2D Availability

 

[XXR vs XXR]

 

Avengers: Endgame Current Status -- April 6, 2019 @ 3:00pm -- 19 Days Remaining 

 

AMC Prime

6:00pm -- 205/205 -- SOLD OUT  
10:00pm -- 189/205

2:00am -- 59/205

 

 

IMAX 3D

6:30pm -- 146/151

10:30pm -- 128/151 

2:30am -- 28/151 

 

 

Real 3D

6:15pm -- 42/60

6:45pm -- 60/60 -- SOLD OUT 

7:30pm -- 95/125

8:00pm -- 53/76

8:45pm --60/60 -- SOLD OUT  

9:45pm -- 17/44

10:25pm -- 23/60

10:45pm -- 18/60 

11:30pm -- 35/125 

12:00am -- 5/76 
12:45am -- 2/60

1:50am -- 2/44

2:20am -- NEW -- 0/60

 

 

Digital
6:00pm -- 69/76

6:10pm -- 38/44

7:00pm -- 128/147

7:10pm -- 30/44 

7:15pm -- 57/76

7:45pm -- 45/60

7:50pm -- 31/44 

8:15pm -- 35/44

8:30pm -- 54/76

9:00pm -- 111/147

9:30pm -- 28/44 

10:10pm -- 24/44

10:15pm -- 55/76

11:00pm -- 103/147

11:10pm -- 20/44 

11:15pm -- 56/76

11:45pm -- 37/60

11:50pm -- 16/44

12:15am -- 12/44

12:30am -- 29/76

1:00am -- 0/147

1:45am -- 4/44

2:10am -- NEW -- 0/76

 

 

Fan Event

5:00pm -- 147/147 -- SOLD OUT 

 

 

 

TOTALS: 43 show times, 2149 tickets sold out of 3805 available (56.48%)

 

Captain Marvel -- 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold out of 2734 available (41.7%) -- final tracking
Infinity War -- 37 show times, 2449 tickets sold out of 3312 available (73.95%) -- final tracking  

 

Tickets sold represents 188.5% of the tickets sold for Captain Marvel through 6:30pm on Wednesday before opening & 87.8% of the tickets sold for Infinity War through 8:30pm on the Wednesday before opening.

 

 

 

[FlashMaster659]

4 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Avengers: Endgame: AMC Orange 30 - Thursday Night Report

 

IMAX 2D

 

7:00 PM - 448/456

11:00 PM - 423/456

3:00 AM - 222/456

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 193/197

10:00 PM - 190/197

2:00 AM - 184/197

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 123/161

6:45 PM - 121/161

7:15 PM - 130/178

7:45 PM - 105/161

8:15 PM - 101/159

8:45 PM - 64/97

9:15 PM - 89/139

9:45 PM - 53/97

10:15 PM - 93/161

10:45 PM - 48/161

11:15 PM - 41/178

11:45 PM - 12/161

12:15 AM - 2/159

 

Standard 2D

 

6:00 PM - 156/190

6:30 PM - 216/275

7:00 PM - 213/275

7:15 PM - 131/161

7:30 PM - 183/235

8:00 PM - 330/405

8:15 PM - 128/178

8:30 PM - 331/405

9:00 PM - 174/235

9:30 PM - 137/190

10:00 PM - 129/190

10:30 PM - 200/275

11:00 PM - 107/159

11:30 PM - 159/275

12:00 AM - 216/405

12:30 AM - 101/405

 

Total

 

5553/8190 (67.8%)

Aaaaand I forgot the Fan Event again. 231/235 which brings the total to 5784/8425 (68.7%).

[FlashMaster659]

Avengers: Endgame: Universal City AMC at CityWalk Hollywood - Thursday Night

 

Opening Night Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 169/173

 

IMAX 2D

 

6:00 PM - 371/376

10:10 PM - 370/376

2:15 AM - 295/376

 

Dolby Atmos RealD 3D

 

6:50 PM - 57/62

7:15 PM - 76/86

7:45 PM - 73/86

8:30 PM - 79/86

11:10 PM - 41/62

11:30 PM - 57/86

12:00 AM - 48/86

12:45 AM - 34/86

 

Dolby Atmos 2D

 

6:10 PM - 111/118

6:20 PM - 59/64

6:30 PM - 105/116

6:40 PM - 73/86

7:00 PM - 159/173

7:30 PM - 77/86

8:00 PM - 82/86

8:15 PM - 52/63

8:45 PM - 48/62

9:00 PM - 153/173

10:15 PM - 51/64

10:20 PM - 99/118

10:30 PM - 94/116

10:40 PM - 66/86

11:00 PM - 147/173

11:45 PM - 64/86

11:50 PM - 37/55

12:15 AM - 55/86

12:30 AM - 39/63

1:00 AM - 31/62

1:15 AM - 105/173

2:10 AM - 24/64

2:20 AM - 27/118

 

Total

 

3438/4232 (81.2%)

[Ledmonkey96]

Just the 3 theaters on this page alone equal out to well over 10k tickets for Thursday..... And since these showings are all after Matinee it's a safe bet thee average ticket prices is over 10$

[Legion Again]

On 4/5/2019 at 5:24 PM, Thanos Legion said:

And today, AEG has held onto a top 2 slot:  

 

1	27.8%	Shazam   (33.2 adj)
2	16.2%	Avengers: Endgame  
3	13.8%	Pet Sematary     (16.5 adj)
4	11.7%	Dumbo (14.0 adj)
5	8.3%	Us         (9.9 adj)

 

Shazam’s % of non-Endgame tickets is actually down a bit, mostly due to Pet Sematary rising up. I’m sort of hoping to see CM hanging out at 5 again sometime Sun/Mon.

Think I’ll just jot down their end of day updates for posterity from now til AEG comes out. Not as useful as Fandango, but why not? There was some movement today that I didn’t expect, with CM rising all the way to 4th, but Endgame stayed above Us and is hanging in there for now. Expect Endgame will drop out tomorrow morning, back for good by Mon. Also AEG is small enough now that I’m dropping the adjusted calculation for the other movies.

17:00 Pacific Time

1	30.1%	Shazam!
2	13.9%	Dumbo
3	12.9%	Pet Sematary
4	9.1%	Captain Marvel
5	8.8%	Avengers: Endgame

Edited April 9, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[XXR vs XXR]

23 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Just the 3 theaters on this page alone equal out to well over 10k tickets for Thursday..... And since these showings are all after Matinee it's a safe bet thee average ticket prices is over 10$

For my theater it's $30,429 for the night, so far. 

Let's extrapolate some data. There are approximately 40800 screens in the country. Endgame will be in most of the theaters in the country, but lets take off a few hundred for theaters that they aren't in. So let's call it 40500 total screens at all of the locations EG will be in.

So far, my cursory glance of about 50 different theaters tells me that on average, their total show count for Thursday is about 40% higher than their screen count. That puts us at 56,700 show times as of tonight. If we say that my theater is "average" right now (its clearly lower than in places like LA or NYC, but higher than Midwest / Northwest cities), each show time is currently at around $710 in ticket sales. 

 

So by my back of the napkin number crunching, I'd say Endgame is already at around $41 million for Thursday night (US only). Add in Canada to get the domestic number, and you're probably at $44m or so. 

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Think I’ll just jot down their end of day updates for posterity from now til AEG comes out. Not as useful as Fandango, but why not? There was some movement today that I didn’t expect, with CM rising all the way to 4th, but Endgame stayed above Us and is hanging in there for now. Expect Endgame will drop out tomorrow morning, back for good by Mon. Also AEG is small enough now that I’m dropping the adjusted calculation for the other movies.

 

1	30.1%	Shazam!
2	13.9%	Dumbo
3	12.9%	Pet Sematary
4	9.1%	Captain Marvel
5	8.8%	Avengers: Endgame

#Crumbling

#OWRecordRIP

#FireRussoBros

#ReleaseTheWhedonCut

#NotMyAvengers

 

---

 

300m OW Dream is dead.  Nobody let CJohn know. 

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

For my theater it's $30,429 for the night, so far. 

Let's extrapolate some data. There are approximately 40800 screens in the country. Endgame will be in most of the theaters in the country, but lets take off a few hundred for theaters that they aren't in. So let's call it 40500 total screens at all of the locations EG will be in.

So far, my cursory glance of about 50 different theaters tells me that on average, their total show count for Thursday is about 40% higher than their screen count. That puts us at 56,700 show times as of tonight. If we say that my theater is "average" right now (its clearly lower than in places like LA or NYC, but higher than Midwest / Northwest cities), each show time is currently at around $710 in ticket sales. 

 

So by my back of the napkin number crunching, I'd say Endgame is already at around $41 million for Thursday night (US only). Add in Canada to get the domestic number, and you're probably at $44m or so. 

 

@Porthos To help this number crunch, can you tell me how many screens the theaters you're tracking have total? I know for the ones I'm tracking in Houston, showtimes vs total screen count is just over 41%. 

 

[FlashMaster659]

Avengers: Endgame: AMC Century City 15 - Thursday Night

 

Opening Night Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - SOLD OUT: 299/299

 

IMAX 2D

 

6:00 PM - 199/204

10:30 PM - 195/204

2:30 AM - 128/204

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:45 PM - 167/169

11:00 PM - 163/169

3:30 AM - 116/169

 

PRIME 3D at AMC

 

8:00 PM - 132/138

1:00 AM - 87/138

5:00 AM - 29/138

 

2D

 

6:30 PM - 60/132

7:00 PM - 224/241

9:00 PM - 243/299

10:00 PM - 81/117

11:30 PM - 153/241

11:45 PM - 84/207

12:15 AM - 45/141

12:30 AM - 15/173

1:30 AM - 7/299

 

Total

 

2227/3482 (64.0%)

Edited April 7, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Opening Night Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - SOLD OUT (?/?)

Looking at your showtime lineup, I'd guess it's the 299 seat auditorium. 

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

For my theater it's $30,429 for the night, so far. 

Let's extrapolate some data. There are approximately 40800 screens in the country. Endgame will be in most of the theaters in the country, but lets take off a few hundred for theaters that they aren't in. So let's call it 40500 total screens at all of the locations EG will be in.

I think you're way over-estimating how many screens it'll be on.  Can't find the data for Canada, but in the US alone there are a little over 5,800 movie theaters in the US.  Infinity War was in 4,474 theaters in the domestic market (US + Canada).   That puts it at a little over 75% if NATO was including Canada in its data (which I doubt).

 

Looked around for an unofficial screen count for IW but BOM didn't have it.  It did have TFA listed at 14,400 screens for its OW, at 4,134 theaters.

 

I don't want to go too far down this rabbit hole, as it came up a lot in the run up to IW and an argument for why IW might come up short of TFA, and IW famously did happen to beat it by a decent margin.  Just saying that I think some of the presumptions of the model might be off.

 

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I think you're way over-estimating how many screens it'll be on.  Can't find the data for Canada, but in the US alone there are a little over 5,800 movie theaters in the US.  Infinity War was in 4,474 theaters in the domestic market (US + Canada).   That puts it at a little over 75% if NATO was including Canada in its data (which I doubt).

 

Looked around for an unofficial screen count for IW but BOM didn't have it.  It did have TFA listed at 14,400 screens for its OW, at 4,134 theaters.

 

I don't want to go too far down this rabbit hole, as it came up a lot in the run up to IW and an argument for why IW might come up short of TFA, and IW famously did happen to beat it by a decent margin.  Just saying that I think some of the presumptions of the model might be off.

 

Well damn. My whole model is blown to hell 

 

But you've provided me with new data and ways to make my estimations! I'll come back with a more resolute estimate in a bit.

[TalismanRing]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I think you're way over-estimating how many screens it'll be on.  Can't find the data for Canada, but in the US alone there are a little over 5,800 movie theaters in the US.  Infinity War was in 4,474 theaters in the domestic market (US + Canada).   That puts it at a little over 75% if NATO was including Canada in its data (which I doubt).

 

Looked around for an unofficial screen count for IW but BOM didn't have it.  It did have TFA listed at 14,400 screens for its OW, at 4,134 theaters.

 

I don't want to go too far down this rabbit hole, as it came up a lot in the run up to IW and an argument for why IW might come up short of TFA, and IW famously did happen to beat it by a decent margin.  Just saying that I think some of the presumptions of the model might be off.

 

I think the Deadline article on predictions said a $300m o/w would require about 70% saturation on 12,000 screens (though how that calculate considering the disparity of screen size and ticket prices is beyond me but they have the nationwide numbers)

 

[Ledmonkey96]

I mean if Endgame just ups it's PTA to TFA levels that gets it almost to 270mil right there. Of course going any farther than TFA's PTA breaks a new record for highest OW PTA in wide release

Edited April 7, 2019 by Ledmonkey96

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

@Porthos To help this number crunch, can you tell me how many screens the theaters you're tracking have total? I know for the ones I'm tracking in Houston, showtimes vs total screen count is just over 41%. 

 

 

4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Well damn. My whole model is blown to hell 

 

But you've provided me with new data and ways to make my estimations! I'll come back with a more resolute estimate in a bit.

Soowwwwy.

 

Anywho, about the screen count EG is at currently in Sacto, I don't have that handy.  I do have the raw data scattered about, but it'd take me time to assemble it.  It'd just be easier for me to try to keep an eye out when I'm making my report tonight and make a side note for the percentage of screens it's on locally.   If it isn't too time consuming, I'll try to note it for you.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I think the Deadline article on predictions said a $300m o/w would require about 70% saturation on 12,000 screens (though how that calculate considering the disparity of screen size and ticket prices is beyond me but they have the nationwide numbers)

 

Same way they calculate their early projections, presumably. 

[XXR vs XXR]

54 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Same way they calculate their early projections, presumably. 

I had a whole, long analysis laid out that started to not make sense because the numbers in my head weren't translating properly to paper.

 

In any case, I'd say we need at least 225k show times for Endgame to hit $300 million. If you figure roughly 13-14 shows per screen for the weekend, then it would need somewhere between 16500 - 17500 screens. IW was in 4474 theaters. I imagine EG beats it slightly, so let's say 4480. This would mean EG needs about 3 more shows per theater for the weekend than TFA got per theater for its weekend, at the same approximate saturation rate. 

 

I think it's doable, for sure. 

 

Edited April 7, 2019 by VenomXXR
Spelling.

[Ledmonkey96]

10 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I had a whole, long analysis laid out that started to not make sense because the numbers in my head weren't translating properly to paper.

  

 In any case, I'd say we need at least 225k show times for Endgame to hit $300 million. If you figure roughly 13-14 shows per screen for the weekend, then it would need somewhere between 16500 - 17500 screens. IW was in 4474 theaters. I imagine EG beats it slightly, so let's say 4480. This would mean EG needs about 3 more shows per theater for the weekend than TFA got per theater for its weekend, at the same approximate saturation rate. 

  

I think it's doable, for sure. 

 

It also assumes that TFA sold out of basically every showtime all weekend which while not impossible is unlikely.