The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[ChipDerby]

So if Shazam hits $60 mil OW, would that be "very embarrassing" for the tracking here? Or just "mildly embarrassing"?

[HouseOfTheSun]

10 minutes ago, ChipMunky said:

So if Shazam hits $60 mil OW, would that be "very embarrassing" for the tracking here? Or just "mildly embarrassing"?

Why is 60m now your prediction. That’s a top end multiplier for a superhero movie and certainly a surprising multiplier for a movie with Thursday’s starting at 4pm

[Premium George]

13 minutes ago, ChipMunky said:

So if Shazam hits $60 mil OW, would that be "very embarrassing" for the tracking here? Or just "mildly embarrassing"?

Industry tracking, mildly embarrassing.

Our tracking, on point. Or talisman tracking, tbe.

9 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

There will probably be a bump of couple of hundred here or there but as of Midnight CST

 

Avengers: 30,022
Shazam: 17,013
PS: 8,556
US: 4,236
CM: 3,784
Dumbo: 3,342
The Best of Enemies: 1,027

 

Shazam!

 

53.89% of Venom $10m in previews with a 5pm start - $5.389m.  Maybe a 10% knock for an hour earlier which would bring it down to around $4.85m

67.5% of AQM which did $9m with a 7pm start  =  $6.075 previews.  But a 4pm start probably knock that down at least 20-30% so $4.25  -$ 4.85m

 

Edit: Both well off Deadline's $4.1-4.4 but maybe they know the % of tickets bought for the FSS w/e and not just previews, or the %s aren't working or they're Deadline.

 

 

 

[ChipDerby]

1 minute ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Why is 60m now your prediction. That’s a top end multiplier for a superhero movie and certainly a surprising multiplier for a movie with Thursday’s starting at 4pm

 

Comparables that made similar preview amounts:

 

Dead Men Tell No Tales - would lead to a $67.6 mil OW

22 Jump Street - would lead to a $61.2 mil OW

Star Trek Beyond - would lead to a $63.6 mil OW

Fallout - would lead to a $60.2 mil OW

Ant-Man - would lead to a $52.8 mil OW

 

 

[HouseOfTheSun]

Just now, ChipMunky said:

 

Comparables that made similar preview amounts:

 

Dead Men Tell No Tales - would lead to a $67.6 mil OW

22 Jump Street - would lead to a $61.2 mil OW

Star Trek Beyond - would lead to a $63.6 mil OW

Fallout - would lead to a $60.2 mil OW

Ant-Man - would lead to a $52.8 mil OW

 

 

Only antman is close to a relevant comparison and a lot has changed for superhero movies between 2015 and now in terms of front loading. And antman did not have 4pm screenings on Thursday. Even wonderwoman which turned into a cultural storm over its weekend did not get to 10x. No Mcu or dceu has gotten that in a while. 

[ChipDerby]

4 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Only antman is close to a relevant comparison and a lot has changed for superhero movies between 2015 and now in terms of front loading. And antman did not have 4pm screenings on Thursday. Even wonderwoman which turned into a cultural storm over its weekend did not get to 10x. No Mcu or dceu has gotten that in a while. 

 

Well we'll know in about 48 hours

[HouseOfTheSun]

2 minutes ago, ChipMunky said:

 

Well we'll know in about 48 hours

Well if there is one to break the mold...I hope it is this one 

[MCKillswitch123]

12 minutes ago, ChipMunky said:

 

Comparables that made similar preview amounts:

 

Dead Men Tell No Tales - would lead to a $67.6 mil OW

22 Jump Street - would lead to a $61.2 mil OW

Star Trek Beyond - would lead to a $63.6 mil OW

Fallout - would lead to a $60.2 mil OW

Ant-Man - would lead to a $52.8 mil OW

 

 

Did any of those have 4PM Thursday previews, though? And was any of those not a Summer opener where Sunday might've been inflated even if the Friday/Saturday bump is smaller?

[ChipDerby]

6 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Did any of those have 4PM Thursday previews, though? And was any of those not a Summer opener where Sunday might've been inflated even if the Friday/Saturday bump is smaller?

 

I think with the apparent backloading of the previews, the 4pm shows didn't matter much.

[raulbalarezo]

21 minutes ago, ChipMunky said:

 

Comparables that made similar preview amounts:

 

Dead Men Tell No Tales - would lead to a $67.6 mil OW

22 Jump Street - would lead to a $61.2 mil OW

Star Trek Beyond - would lead to a $63.6 mil OW

Fallout - would lead to a $60.2 mil OW

Ant-Man - would lead to a $52.8 mil OW

 

 

Weird comparisons 

[ChipDerby]

5 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

Weird comparisons 

 

Ahh yes:

 

family film with action

ehh probably not, but targeted teens

franchise action film

franchise action film

franchise action film, with comedy (but marketed poorly)

 

Clearly Ant-Man is the best comparison. But I think Shazam has been marketed as far more family friendly.

[TwoMisfits]

53 minutes ago, ChipMunky said:

So if Shazam hits $60 mil OW, would that be "very embarrassing" for the tracking here? Or just "mildly embarrassing"?

Depends - which poster's tracking are you using...some of us track, but then use our experience and our gut to actually decide if the "precise" tracking will be on the mark, or this movie will run a little above or below...sometimes that extra gut/experience makes us seem like geniuses (and sometimes, it lets us down and makes us look like idiots)...I'm hoping for a 2 for 2 run, but my gut could be a little off, but I'm sticking with my weeks ago call of $60M+, but with this week's theater sets and not quite late breaking presales, this being $5-$10M below Aquaman (with $60M being held either way by the early previews being added in, which it looks like WB is leaning towards doing, probably b/c they think having the bigger opener is more important than the longer legs, b/c they suspect the legs are not the "in doubt" part here:)...

[Ledmonkey96]

Completely forgot that my theater had a rented out show that wasn't posted on Fandango, so for Endgame Thursday we are at 672/832 (80.8%)

[Legion Again]

Shazam finally claims the MT throne. Pet Sematary still < half AEG.

[narniadis]

2 hours ago, ChipMunky said:

 

Comparables that made similar preview amounts:

 

Dead Men Tell No Tales - would lead to a $67.6 mil OW

22 Jump Street - would lead to a $61.2 mil OW

Star Trek Beyond - would lead to a $63.6 mil OW

Fallout - would lead to a $60.2 mil OW

Ant-Man - would lead to a $52.8 mil OW

 

 

All of those were summer films and Dead Men was a holiday opener so all of those are invalid when considering Shazam. 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, ChipMunky said:

So if Shazam hits $60 mil OW, would that be "very embarrassing" for the tracking here? Or just "mildly embarrassing"?

 I dunno, ChipMunky.  Which of us were closer to the preview number, this thread or Deadline?  Gotta think when it comes to tracking someone should be embarrassed, but it ain't us.

 

On 4/3/2019 at 3:06 PM, Porthos said:

Now this would still be missing about six to seven hours of sales, so even more of an imperfect comp.  But 297/537 = 55.31% = 5.5m Thr, which is more or less what some of the comps were pointing to before Pulse crashed.

 

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

Venom gained a showing during that timespan while Shazam! didn't.  It's also dropped a bit on percentage as it was at 55.31% (297/537) at around this time yesterday while now it is at 51.71 % (453/876).  That points to around 5.2m Thr previews.  Which is at the high end of some of the comps we saw earlier in the week.

 

Don't know if the slight drop (55.31 to 51.71) is a sign of anything other than random variation though.

5.5 and 5.2 is pretty good stab at 5.9, I think, considering one check was missing a quarter of a days sales.

 

Maybe not great, but certainly better than some outfits that are supposed to know what they are doing. 

 

====

 

As it is, I'm just happy it came in much higher than expected. That a partial admittedly extremely half assed projection beat Deadline is just icing on the cake.

 

[ChipDerby]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 I dunno, ChipMunky.  Which of us were closer to the preview number, this thread or Deadline?  Gotta think when it comes to tracking someone should be embarrassed, but it ain't us.

 

 

5.5 and 5.2 is pretty good stab at 5.9, I think, considering one check was missing a quarter of a days sales.

 

Maybe not great, but certainly better than some outfits that are supposed to know what they are doing. 

 

====

 

As it is, I'm just happy it came in much higher than expected. That a partial admittedly extremely half assed projection beat Deadline is just icing on the cake.

 

 

Oh, Deadline has been embarrassing. And I'm only specifically talking about the weekend number.

[Brinatico]

2 hours ago, ChipMunky said:

So if Shazam hits $60 mil OW, would that be "very embarrassing" for the tracking here? Or just "mildly embarrassing"?

I think will be very much much.

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

@Porthos

 

I’ll be very curious to see if you market can hit 25k tickets available, and a 90% sold rate. 

If that new theater opens up in two weeks has it?  25k is a cinch.  If not, might be a little closer.

 

90% sold rate will probably be pushing it, I think. Especially since I'll stop tracking around 5:30pm or so. 

 

Those scattered 2am showings will also depress the percentage.  Plus hitting 90% sold is really really hard when multiple chains are taken into account. 

 

IW finished around at stop of tracking 86%, for the record. We'll see how close EG comes to that when all is said and done.

[JB33]

Avengers: Endgame ticket sales at my theatre for Thursday April 25:

 

Cineplex Scotiabank Theatre Chinook - Calgary AB

Avengers: Endgame

Thursday April 25, 2019

 

UltraAVX (3D) Atmos

7:00 - 317/363 seats sold (87%)

11:00 - 183/363 seats sold (50%)

 

UltraAVX (3D)

10:00PM - 220/406 seats sold (54%)

 

UltraAVX

6:00PM - 301/406 seats sold (74%)

 

IMAX (3D)

6:30PM - 269/279 seats sold (96%)

 

IMAX

10:30PM - 259/279 seats sold (93%)

 

3D

8:00PM - 236/330 seats sold (72%)

 

Regular

9:00PM - 172/234 seats sold (74%)

 

 

These non-IMAX showings look even more sold than the numbers show because, naturally, the only seats remaining are the front rows and maybe a couple stray seats in the central area.