The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Something else that's interesting / fun to consider. 

The weekend before Infinity War, the total box office was $125m. 

Looking at what's coming and the Box Office Pro forecasts, we could very well be looking at a weekend before Endgame of under $65 million. 

Holdovers 30M, EG 280... >90% of BO for a single weekend incoming 

Edited April 6, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Matthew said:

I was thinking about it.. I know people want Endgame to beat TFA previews but I don't think it's likely. 

 

Offcourse it can reach 300M OW without beating TFA Thursday figure. So everything is good, I think. 👍👍

 

Definitely disagree on that one. It has to beat the previews record to have a shot at $300m. 

Lets say it "only" does $55m. That means it has to do $245m FSS. The record, which IW set last year is under $219m. It's not going to beat that by 11% after IW beat the previous record by 14%. 

IMO, for $300m to actually happen, we're going to need at least $66-67m from previews, and probably more like $70m. 

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Looking at my local the three sold out shows that seemingly have never went on sale are still there days later.  I think they might be group sellouts. I'll give numbers with & without

Same thing happened at one of my local theaters.  Still sitting there greyed out.  I reckon it had to have been a group sale established ahead of time.

 

I'm actually fairly certain I know which screens they are too [by checking later screens that suddenly popped up late at night]. Which means I could theoretically add them to the seat count. But I'll leave them as non-reserved, if only because I don't feel like messing with the comps.  And there's enough uncertainty that I might as well leave well enough alone.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

 

While it may be slowing down, it's still running almost double the pace of IW with 20 days left (if I'm reading your numbers right - 116 tickets sold for IW on day 20 vs 220 for EG exact). Now, it won't remain at double of course, but even if it could just sell the exact same amount of seats more at the same theaters over the next 20 days, we'd be looking at almost 19k at those places. If it runs 25% ahead, nearly 21k. 

Crazy stuff either way. 

It was IW: 195 v EG: 220.

 

 

IW (day 4):          195 tickets sold that day [1 sellout/106 showings  | 4838/10500 seats left  | 53.92% sold]

EG (adj*) (day 4):  254 tickets sold that day [7 sellouts/221 showings | 4123/18581 seats left  | 77.81% sold]

EG (exact**)(day 4): 220 tickets sold that day [7 sellouts/195 showings | 3558/16368 seats left  | 78.26% sold]

 

EDIT::::

 

I see what you're saying.  You were using the T-20 day for IW.  Yeah, that was 116 tickets sold.  But that was a radically different metric as it had 20 days of pre-sales before it.

 

Right now we're at the tail end of the initial expansion that most movies see when they start pre-sales, so I think the Day 4 IW comp makes a bit more sense here than the T-20 comp.  

 

The initial spike of pre-sales usually lasts around 4 to 8 days or so, but that's kinda messed up by the truncated pre-sale window.

 

Ideally I'd like to keep the initial pre-sale comps for IW and CM for around six to eight days total days, but we're gonna be running into the actual run up to premiere day where things tend to ramp up.  That's why you're seeing a coincidental amount at T-20 for IW, for instance. So I'll probably cut it short.

 

Anyway as I said, I see what you're saying but I think in this case the x days of pre-sales is the superior metric to compare when it comes to day-to-day comparison with IW.

 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

It was IW: 195 v EG: 220.

 

 

IW (day 4):          195 tickets sold that day [1 sellout/106 showings  | 4838/10500 seats left  | 53.92% sold]

EG (adj*) (day 4):  254 tickets sold that day [7 sellouts/221 showings | 4123/18581 seats left  | 77.81% sold]

EG (exact**)(day 4): 220 tickets sold that day [7 sellouts/195 showings | 3558/16368 seats left  | 78.26% sold]

 

I think he was talking about IW T-20?

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Definitely disagree on that one. It has to beat the previews record to have a shot at $300m. 

Lets say it "only" does $55m. That means it has to do $245m FSS. The record, which IW set last year is under $219m. It's not going to beat that by 11% after IW beat the previous record by 14%. 

IMO, for $300m to actually happen, we're going to need at least $66-67m from previews, and probably more like $70m. 

AIW had a 6.6 multi  - far and beyond any recent  SW multi.  ROTJ did just $6m more in previews for  a 4.88 multi

 

In order to need $70m to hit $300m it would have to have  multi at below TFA at 4.28

 

You think the previews could go up 79.48% but the rest of the w/e just 5.16%?

 

The multi will go down, probably sub 6 but sub 5? I don't think so with the way I see seat saturation already for  Fri and Sat

 

AOU comp to AIW -   27.6 -> 39 =  41.3%   FFS   163.5 -> 218.7 = 33.7%   

 

I think it's more probable that previews raise another 41% while FSS raises another 12% than that 79.48%/5.16% split.   

 

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I think he was talking about IW T-20?

See my edited post.

[TalismanRing]

Friday  numbers at my local - probably won't do these for another week

 

RPX (4 shows, 1 is 3D) - 928/1280 = 72.5%

2D (17 shows) -  2079/4537 = 45.82%  (after 4::30pm - 1651/2419- 68.2%)

3D (8 shows) - 634/2218 = 28.5% (after 4::30pm - 477/1114 = 42.8%)

 

Total = 3641/8,035 = 45.3% [RPX +  after 4:30pm - 3056/4813 - 63.49%]

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Porthos]

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Right now we're at the tail end of the initial expansion that most movies see when they start pre-sales, so I think the Day 4 IW comp makes a bit more sense here than the T-20 comp.  

 

The initial spike of pre-sales usually lasts around 4 to 8 days or so, but that's kinda messed up by the truncated pre-sale window.

 

I should probably expand a little bit on this.

 

Yes the vast amount of the initial surge for most movies does tend to happen in the first couple of days.  But even then it tends to reach a second plateau before settling into the long tail.  Part of this might be added showings, either from theaters late to the party, or not realizing initial demand.

 

For the movies that have low pre-sales, there's a lot less of this.  But it's still something like a curve on a graph, just with higher or lower values.

For instance, here's Captain Marvel's first fourteen days:

T-58:	1498
T-57	195
T-56	160
T-55	64
T-54	98
T-53	71
T-52	62
T-51	59
T-50	74
T-49	50
T-48	37
T-47	36
T-46	43
T-45	27

First day is one number range, next two another.  Then there's something of a drop off but still a distinct range for about the next six days before it drops another tier (I didn't include Day 15 coz it had a random spike).  

 

CM also had something of a steeper drop simply due to it being out so long.  But IW saw something similar:

 

T-41	4662
T-40	541
T-39	264
T-38	195
T-37	99
T-36	102
T-35	116
T-34	124
T-33	53
T-32	40
T-31	49
T-30	52
T-29	66

First day, one distinct number.  Then another on the next day and then a different tier the next two days after that. 

 

IW finally entered its "long tail" on the ninth day  of pre-sales.  The main difference with IW and other films is... it's long tail still had higher pre-sales per day than most other films did at the time. 

 

The are exceptions to this.  JW2 had a drop of as well, but 'recovered' much quicker and had a fairly strong mid-run sales. DP2 also had a really strong mid-run.  I have my theories on both, but this really isn't the post for them.

 

Anyway, this'll become much less of an issue next week, which is most of the reason why I'll switch over to all T-minus/final comps then.  But for right now it's probably fairer to compare IW Day 4 and EG Day 4 when it comes to relative strength immediately after tickets went on sale.

 

===

Went on for a bit there.  Sorry.  

Edited April 6, 2019 by Porthos

[TalismanRing]

2 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Friday  numbers at my local - probably won't do these for another week

 

RPX (4 shows, 1 is 3D) - 928/1280 = 72.5%

2D (17 shows) -  2079/4537 = 45.82%  (after 4::30pm - 1651/2419- 68.2%)

3D (8 shows) - 634/2218 = 28.5% (after 4::30pm - 477/1114 = 42.8%)

 

Total = 3641/8,035 = 45.3% [RPX +  after 4:30pm - 3056/4813 - 63.49%]

Saturday (morning and afternoon shows doing better than Friday, evening shows less & 3D even more of a drag)

 

RPX (4 shows, 1 is 3D) - 808/1280 = 63.12%

2D (17 shows) - 1991/4537 - 43.88%  (only 88 seats off from Friday)

3D (8 shows) - 341/2218 = 15.3%

 

Total = 3140/8,035 = 39%

[XXR vs XXR]

4 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

AIW had a 6.6 multi  - far and beyond any recent  SW multi.  ROTJ did just $6m more in previews for  a 4.88 multi

 

In order to need $70m to hit $300m it would have to have  multi at below TFA at 4.28

 

You think the previews could go up 79.48% but the rest of the w/e just 5.16%?

 

The multi will go down, probably sub 6 but sub 5? I don't think so with the way I see seat saturation already for  Fri and Sat

 

AOU comp to AIW -   27.6 -> 39 =  41.3%   FFS   163.5 -> 218.7 = 33.7%   

 

I think it's more probable that previews raise another 41% while FSS raises another 12% than that 79.48%/5.16% split.   

 

 

 

I’ll defer to your grandeur, oh great Talisman 🥳

 

My main reason for that particular analysis is I felt that eventually you run into a law of large numbers problem. IW destroyed the FSS record, but wasn’t close to the previews record. I feel like there is a lot less room to grow on FSS but plenty for previews. I’m just not sure I can see a 12% increase on the record after a 14% increase. 

 

Hopefully it works out in both our favor, and we get the best of both worlds with a 70/75/92/78 kind of opening 🥳

[Matthew]

20 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I’ll defer to your grandeur, oh great Talisman 🥳

 

My main reason for that particular analysis is I felt that eventually you run into a law of large numbers problem. IW destroyed the FSS record, but wasn’t close to the previews record. I feel like there is a lot less room to grow on FSS but plenty for previews. I’m just not sure I can see a 12% increase on the record after a 14% increase. 

 

Hopefully it works out in both our favor, and we get the best of both worlds with a 70/75/92/78 kind of opening 🥳

325M OW 😋😋😋

[Eric Duncan]

Movie/Time

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Avengers: Endgame		N/A	***10,258	30,292	17,422
		24 days	23 days	22 days	21 days

***7pm-12am

 

Days 22-21

2001% of Captain Marvel (3.1B)

 

Third and fourth day of presales

854% of Captain Marvel (1.3B)

 

Cumulative

105% of Captain Marvel (161.3M)

 

Well...it's come down to Earth a bit, but we probably have to wait a while longer before we have anything valuable to work with.

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Movie/Time

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Avengers: Endgame		N/A	***10,258	30,292	17,422
		24 days	23 days	22 days	21 days

***7pm-12am

 

Days 22-21

2001% of Captain Marvel (3.1B)

 

Third and fourth day of presales

854% of Captain Marvel (1.3B)

 

Cumulative

105% of Captain Marvel (161.3M)

 

Well...it's come down to Earth a bit, but we probably have to wait a while longer before we have anything valuable to work with.

i wouldnt say down to earth its still crazy plus it will probably skyrocket again next week

[gfb]

8 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

Lincoln Center - 4/5/2019 - Opening Weekend

	Sold	Available	Percentage
Thursday	3983	4887	81.50%

 

 

 

AIW was at 3196 seats sold of 4885 total seats for a %65.4 percentage on 11/04/2018, 15 days before previews. Endgame obviously is 20 days away from previews here.

23 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Movie/Time

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Avengers: Endgame		N/A	***10,258	30,292	17,422
		24 days	23 days	22 days	21 days

***7pm-12am

 

AIW comps for Friday Endgame number.

 

Closest "days left" comp with AIW is on 9/4/2018 where AIW sold 10,677 tickets with 18 days left. (%61.2)

A Friday comp with AIW is on 13/4/2018 where AIW sold 7614 tickets with 14 days left. (%43.7)

Another Friday comp with AIW is on 20/4/2018 where AIW sold 14,318 tickets with 7 days left. (%82.1) 

 

Last number is courtesy of:

 

On 4/21/2018 at 7:33 AM, TalismanRing said:

FANDANGO TRACKER

 

4-20-18  Daily Total  (EST)
Avengers Infinity War	14,318
Super Troopers 2	14,083
I Feel Pretty	9,249
A Quiet Place	8,098
Rampage	5,252
Deadpool 2	3,705
Blockers	2,865
Ready Player	2,810
Traffik	2,275
Truth or Dare	1,665

 as I stopped tracking myself on 18/4/2018.

 

Even if we cannot say Endgame's early buzz is gone yet, these numbers are still bonkers.

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, gfb said:

 

AIW was at 3196 seats sold of 4885 total seats for a %65.4 percentage on 11/04/2018, 15 days before previews. Endgame obviously is 20 days away from previews here.

AIW comps for Friday Endgame number.

 

Closest "days left" comp with AIW is on 9/4/2018 where AIW sold 10,677 tickets with 18 days left. (%61.2)

A Friday comp with AIW is on 13/4/2018 where AIW sold 7614 tickets with 14 days left. (%43.7)

Another Friday comp with AIW is on 20/4/2018 where AIW sold 14,318 tickets with 7 days left. (%82.1) 

 

 

I know it's still early in the process, and we will know a lot more in 10 more days; but I feel like $50m previews is locked at this point. 

[Legion Again]

AEG only 37.5% above Us on MT now with 9 more updates today to survive. I think it will actually spend a couple hours out, but at least it would be CM that takes its place.

[stfletch]

I don't post much, but I've been an avid reader of this forum for many years. However, the hype around AEG has motivated me to check a couple of theatres in my area. Don't have any comparisons so not super useful, main take aways are this Complex is really trying to push on 3D, and they really should start adding extra screens - only using 4/10 on Friday.

 

Local 10 Screen Multiplex (Braintree Mall, MA)

Thursday 3D: 606/695 = 87.2%

Thursday 2D: 704/725 = 97.1%

Thursday Total: 1310/1420 = 92.3%

Friday 3D: 509/1328 = 38.3%

Friday 2D: 860/1156 = 74.4%

Friday Total: 1369/2484 = 55.1%

 

Full breakout in Spoiler-tag below

Spoiler

 

Thursday
3D
6.00pm		163	172	94.8%
7.00pm		116	117	99.1%
10.00pm		155	172	90.1%
10.45pm		88	117	75.2%
11.00pm		84	117	71.8%
Total		606	695	87.2%
2D
6.30pm		171	172	99.4%
6.45pm		87	88	98.9%
7.30pm		84	88	95.5%
9.00pm		117	117	100.0%
10.30pm		164	172	95.3%
11.30pm		81	88	92.0%
Total		704	725	97.1%
G.Total		1310	1420	92.3%
Friday
3D
8.00am		27	172	15.7%
10.00am		32	117	27.4%
12.00pm		10	172	5.8%
2.00pm		14	117	12.0%
4.00pm		87	172	50.6%
6.00pm		91	117	77.8%
8.00pm		146	172	84.9%
10.00pm		75	117	64.1%
12.00am		27	172	15.7%
Total		509	1328	38.3%
2D
9.00am		72	117	61.5%
11.00am		69	172	40.1%
1.00pm		59	117	50.4%
3.00pm		127	172	73.8%
5.00pm		111	117	94.9%
7.00pm		167	172	97.1%
9.00pm		109	117	93.2%
11.00pm		146	172	84.9%
Total		860	1156	74.4%
G.Total		1369	2484	55.1%

 

 

[MrGlass2]

25 minutes ago, stfletch said:

I don't post much, but I've been an avid reader of this forum for many years. However, the hype around AEG has motivated me to check a couple of theatres in my area.

Unfortunately I am out of 'Like' but these reports are always appreciated.

[FlashMaster659]

Avengers: Endgame: AMC Orange 30 - Thursday Night Report

 

IMAX 2D

 

7:00 PM - 448/456

11:00 PM - 423/456

3:00 AM - 222/456

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 193/197

10:00 PM - 190/197

2:00 AM - 184/197

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 123/161

6:45 PM - 121/161

7:15 PM - 130/178

7:45 PM - 105/161

8:15 PM - 101/159

8:45 PM - 64/97

9:15 PM - 89/139

9:45 PM - 53/97

10:15 PM - 93/161

10:45 PM - 48/161

11:15 PM - 41/178

11:45 PM - 12/161

12:15 AM - 2/159

 

Standard 2D

 

6:00 PM - 156/190

6:30 PM - 216/275

7:00 PM - 213/275

7:15 PM - 131/161

7:30 PM - 183/235

8:00 PM - 330/405

8:15 PM - 128/178

8:30 PM - 331/405

9:00 PM - 174/235

9:30 PM - 137/190

10:00 PM - 129/190

10:30 PM - 200/275

11:00 PM - 107/159

11:30 PM - 159/275

12:00 AM - 216/405

12:30 AM - 101/405

 

Total

 

5784/8425 (68.7%)

Edited October 22, 2019 by FlashMaster659