Jurassic World II OS Thread

[pepsa]

Just now, baumer said:

 

Yes, it's doing really well.  

 

I don't see why this should "only" make a billion.  It's opened strongly so far.  Shouldn't it be on it's way to about 700 internationally?

Well we don't know about china, it will stay flat I think, maybe a small increase. So $240m China. That would mean OS-China only needs $460m, and I think JW2 will do quite a bit more than $460m. I would guess $900m OS, with $800m as a pretty sure number. 

[baumer]

Just now, pepsa said:

Well we don't know about china, it will stay flat I think, maybe a small increase. So $240m China. That would mean OS-China only needs $460m, and I think JW2 will do quite a bit more than $460m. I would guess $900m OS, with $800m as a pretty sure number. 

 

So why are so many people trying to belittle this one?  Even if it drops to 400 in North America (which I doubt it drops that low), with the low number of 700 internationally, this is going to do at leaxst 1.2 billion WW.  So a drop of 30% seems reasonable.

 

However, a more reasonable number, at least the way I see it, is about 1.3-1.35 billion.  

 

Just seems like some people want to criticize films without any kind of perspective.

[Krissykins]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

So why are so many people trying to belittle this one?  Even if it drops to 400 in North America (which I doubt it drops that low), with the low number of 700 internationally, this is going to do at leaxst 1.2 billion WW.  So a drop of 30% seems reasonable.

 

However, a more reasonable number, at least the way I see it, is about 1.3-1.35 billion.  

 

Just seems like some people want to criticize films without any kind of perspective.

Thanks for the common sense Baumer.

 

This thread needed it. 

[Andreas]

13 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

So why are so many people trying to belittle this one?  Even if it drops to 400 in North America (which I doubt it drops that low), with the low number of 700 internationally, this is going to do at leaxst 1.2 billion WW.  So a drop of 30% seems reasonable.

 

However, a more reasonable number, at least the way I see it, is about 1.3-1.35 billion.  

 

Just seems like some people want to criticize films without any kind of perspective.

Finally something that makes sense.

[pepsa]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

So why are so many people trying to belittle this one?  Even if it drops to 400 in North America (which I doubt it drops that low), with the low number of 700 internationally, this is going to do at leaxst 1.2 billion WW.  So a drop of 30% seems reasonable.

  

However, a more reasonable number, at least the way I see it, is about 1.3-1.35 billion.  

 

Just seems like some people want to criticize films without any kind of perspective.

Because early numbers from Wed, Thu and Friday were not great (still decent, stellar, but not great). For example germany Wed+Thu was 140k total and early proj was  500k to 550k if the weekend went well. Now it's looking atleast 600k. So the Sat and Sun, made an extra 75k over the normal Sat and Sun jump. But even then with 'only' $1.15B it seemed it would do with Wed - Fri numbers would still have been massive. 

I think after we get the WE est nobody will say it's doing poorly or underpeforming. Maybe some trolls. 

 

What we have and what I am thinking:

 

Wed: $20.2m

Thu: $19.1m

Fri: $26.8m

 

Proj:

 

Sat: $53m

Sun: $41m

 

So OS weekend would be: $160m +/-

 

[Stewart]

14 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

So why are so many people trying to belittle this one?  Even if it drops to 400 in North America (which I doubt it drops that low), with the low number of 700 internationally, this is going to do at leaxst 1.2 billion WW.  So a drop of 30% seems reasonable.

 

However, a more reasonable number, at least the way I see it, is about 1.3-1.35 billion.  

 

Just seems like some people want to criticize films without any kind of perspective.

Just 3 people from my count. All of which are on the ignore list of many many people.

 

I would say 400 in NA is okay, but kind of the low end. That would be an OW of 130-135 and around a 3x, with summer coming up, it should be much easier to get longer legs. 

 

Realistically it's looking at:

 

425-450 NA

225-250 CN

450 from Current OS (long legs due to lack of comps + OW of 150)

150 from remaining OS (think these did 220 or so for JW1, iirc)

 

gives a total of 1250-1300.

 

I feel like Current OS could very easily gross more, and China could go higher. I'd say 1.2b is looking like a reasonable low, as you mention, and 1.4b is likely a reasonable high, unless some markets surprise.

[Sam]

2 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Because early numbers from Wed, Thu and Friday were not great (still decent, stellar, but not great). For example germany Wed+Thu was 140k total and early proj was  500k to 550k if the weekend went well. Now it's looking atleast 600k. So the Sat and Sun, made an extra 75k over the normal Sat and Sun jump. But even then with 'only' $1.15B it seemed it would do with Wed - Fri numbers would still have been massive. 

I think after we get the WE est nobody will say it's doing poorly or underpeforming. Maybe some trolls. 

 

What we have and what I am thinking:

 

Wed: $20.2m

Thu: $19.1m

Fri: $26.8m

 

Proj:

 

Sat: $53m

Sun: $41m

 

So OS weekend would be: $160m +/-

 

Rth I indicated that the estimated $145.9 seems about right 

 

4 hours ago, Rthanos said:

GER it should end up around lc7.5-7.7 so  about $us9 is correct (weekend + previews), The OS  weekend + previews est safe bet

I think it’ll go just over/under $150M though. But not quite enough for $160M

[Taruseth]

2 hours ago, baumer said:

 

Yes, it's doing really well.  

 

I don't see why this should "only" make a billion.  It's opened strongly so far.  Shouldn't it be on it's way to about 700 internationally?

Yeah, it should 150M OW from these markets should lead to something like 350+M total from these markets.

And China (200M) and Japan etc. should be good for 200+M too, that would be 750M OS-China.

I guess OS-Ch could perform better tough.

[Taruseth]

2 hours ago, feasby007 said:

Just 3 people from my count. All of which are on the ignore list of many many people.

 

I would say 400 in NA is okay, but kind of the low end. That would be an OW of 130-135 and around a 3x, with summer coming up, it should be much easier to get longer legs. 

 

Realistically it's looking at:

 

425-450 NA

225-250 CN

450 from Current OS (long legs due to lack of comps + OW of 150)

150 from remaining OS (think these did 220 or so for JW1, iirc)

 

gives a total of 1250-1300.

 

I feel like Current OS could very easily gross more, and China could go higher. I'd say 1.2b is looking like a reasonable low, as you mention, and 1.4b is likely a reasonable high, unless some markets surprise.

Those legs won't be easy to accomplish, considering a five day start in some major markets and the fact that SK probably won't get further than 2x.

[pepsa]

1 minute ago, Taruseth said:

Those legs won't be easy to accomplish, considering a five day start in some major markets and the fact that SK probably won't get further than 2x.

Well France always has a 5day start, germany a 4day, but 5day isn't that uncommon right? 

[titanic2187]

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	n/a	0.0%
+ Foreign:	$151,100,000	100.0%
= Worldwide:	$151,100,000

[ZeeSoh]

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom debuted with an estimated $151.1M internationally.#JurassicWorldFallenKingdom #BoxOffice @UniversalPics @JurassicWorld

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) June 10, 2018

[Sam]

Good OS opening.

 

Should be able to get at least 400M from these markets (2.6x 151M opening)

 

China and the rest for another 400M.

 

At least 800M OS is what I see.

[Not really]

That's a bit more optimistic compared to yesterday's estimates. Saturday's jump must've been incredible in most countries.

[ZeeSoh]

International debuts for Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom include:

S. Korea - $27.2M
U.K. - $20.0M
France - $10.0M
Spain - $9.4M
Germany - $9.1M
Taiwan - $8.4M
Russia - $8.0M
India - $7.9M
Indonesia - $5.2M
Thailand - $4.7M
Italy - $4.5M#JurassicWorldFallenKingdom #BoxOffice

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) June 10, 2018

[Purple Minion]

From Deadline: The previous film opened to $158.6M in like-for-like markets and at today’s exchange rates. JWFK’s bow is just 5% below that.

[Krissykins]

5 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

From Deadline: The previous film opened to $158.6M in like-for-like markets and at today’s exchange rates. JWFK’s bow is just 5% below that.

Quite impressive retention at that level. 

 

It has no direct competition here in the U.K. until Skyscraper and Incredibles 2 open July 13th so hopefully it can make up some of the difference here. Maybe the weather will cool down again. 

[Sam]

8 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Decrease in all European countries except for Spain.

 

Increase in all Asian territories, with notably huge jumps in OW in SK (+125%) and Taiwan (+55%). 

[fabiopazzo2]

Expected increase in Asia

Expected decrease in Europe 

Will pass easily 1B , lol for Grace and co. 

 

 

but now Universal give me a fucking good film !! 😡😡 

 

 

Edited June 10, 2018 by fabiopazzo2

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Expected increase in Asia

Expected decrease in Europe 

Will pass easily 1B , lol for Grace and co. 

 

 

but now Universal give me a fucking good film !! 😡😡 

 

 

 

It was awesome though