STEPHEN KING'S IT WEEKEND THREAD | 117.15 Mill!....NO SPOILERS..NOT EVEN IN TAGS!

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, a2knet said:

never thought cars 3 ww would be below doms of io, slop and just ahead of zootopia dom. very surprising. though merchandising will be strong.

 

Not sure about that TBH. Cars 3 merchandise was put up on clearance in the targets i was at recently, and even then the rows were full. It will do great in merchanising, but I don't think it will scale the heights it used to be at.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

The Last Knight underperformed but it'll probably still profit.  Same with Baywatch which should likely have a healthy run on the ancillary market.  xXx did well enough in China for it to be saved from being a flop.  Rings made more than 3x its budget overseas so that's an easy profit for them.  An Inconvenient Sequel has made 4x its budget worldwide.  Really their only flops/money-losers are Ghost in the Shell (which was co-funded by Dreamworks) and Monster Trucks (which they took a write off on).

Baywatch was saved by OS but the budget was too high. Had it been $40-50m, it would made a profit from the WW total. 

[YM!]

22 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

oh, Wrathofhan did make it too the movie after all.

[That One Girl]

GITS lost about 60M (with half of the loss probably being shared with Dreamworks, so it evens out to about 30M) and Monster Trucks lost 115M.  Shouldn't that mean just 145M in profit for the rest of the year for them to be in the clear?

[Eevin]

26 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

oh, Wrathofhan did make it too the movie after all.

the epic feud that no one cares about

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

Paramount has had no film crack $150m and there's nothing on the horizon that will either. mother! will be profitable but it's probably going to $50-60m at best. Daddy's Home 2 probably will do $100-120m domestic but no more and Downsizing I think at best it'll crack $100m but it really depends on how audiences receive it as Alexander Payne isn't exactly blockbuster material. 

 

Apart from Spider-Man, Sony hasn't had a great year either although Jumanji should be successful and hopefully Blade Runner which they have OS distribution

Depending on that China deal, Resident Evil did extremelly well.

 

Baby Driver is a massive success, Emoji movie is also a nice one

 

From a studio point of view, specially one that tend to heavily co-finance the big budget movie and maybe less the smaller one, small budget success are not necessarily in a different all together type of profit.

 

Sony did a bigger profit (88.5m) on a movie like Superbad:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=superbad.htm

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$121,463,226	71.5%
+ Foreign:	$48,408,493	28.5%
= Worldwide:	$169,871,719

 

Than on Hancock (78.5m)

Domestic:	$227,946,274	36.5%
+ Foreign:	$396,440,472	63.5%
= Worldwide:	$624,386,746

 

Grown Up (71.4m) did more than Amazing Spider Man (69.8)

 

They still need the giant worldsuccess with a giant revenue/giant cost from time to time to justify paying that world infrastructure that distribute them and make the overhead by title to not be a giant one.

 

But a Superbad + bad teacher + Underwold awakening profit > The Davinci Code or Spider Man 3 profits

[vc2002]

51m???

 

[Cochofles]

1 hour ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

So how long do we have to wait until a new Scary Movie,wh8ch will be a parody of It is announced?

American Horror Story: Cult just debuted with a heavily creepy-clown-centric aesthetic and plot, so I can totally see a new Scary Movie jumping on the clown "fad"...maybe it can also lean on the Purge mini-phenom, the success of The Shallows and 47 Meters Down, Wonder Woman and the hoped-for avalanche of female superhero movies, the ascent of Trump and the empowerment of neo-Nazism/White Nationalism, snowflakes, safe spaces, and all that fun stuff. 

1 billion WW guaranteed. 

 

Edited September 10, 2017 by Cochofles

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Not sure about that TBH. Cars 3 merchandise was put up on clearance in the targets i was at recently, and even then the rows were full. It will do great in merchanising, but I don't think it will scale the heights it used to be at.

yeah. i mean they won't loose money on the production and could even make a healthy profit. don't know what the numbers will be though. but didn't cars1 do 200m merchandising? after all these years of inflation i would expect cars3 to do that too.

 

so if it's prod budget is 200 and global marketing is 150 for a combined budget of 350, then 151 dom + 200 os gives the studio 83 + 66 = ~150 and merchandizing gives 200. so 150 + 200 pays for the budget and they have dvd/bluray/streaming etc as profits.

[YM!]

14 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Paramount has had no film crack $150m and there's nothing on the horizon that will either. mother! will be profitable but it's probably going to $50-60m at best. Daddy's Home 2 probably will do $100-120m domestic but no more and Downsizing I think at best it'll crack $100m but it really depends on how audiences receive it as Alexander Payne isn't exactly blockbuster material. 

 

Apart from Spider-Man, Sony hasn't had a great year either although Jumanji should be successful and hopefully Blade Runner which they have OS distribution

Jumanji has the potential to be the Sing of 2017 for the holidays. Thinking Alvin 2 numbers for it. The Star should make a nice small profit too, but it'd be unremarkable. I understand why Sony is so gung-ho about the Spider-Man spinoffs, outside of Homecoming and Baby Driver, Sony has had a bad year especially their animation arm. Wouldn't be surprised one of its 4 films for 2018 gets pushed back.

Edited September 10, 2017 by YourMother

[DlAMONDZ]

54 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Only one? (Live by Night is a 2016 film but made the majority of its money this year so I'm adding it in don't @ me)

 

Scrolling down I thought this was a Kevin post

Edited September 10, 2017 by DlAMONDZ

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Baby Driver is a massive success, Emoji movie is also a nice one

I forgot about Baby Driver! That was a nice success for TriStar although MRC put up half the budget so Sony had little risk. 

 

Emoji did well but I doubt it'll get a sequel.

[Barnack]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Paramount will have a good fall unless the budget on Suburbicon is like 50M. 

25.5m in California qualifed expenditures:

http://film.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/CFC-Approved-Projects-List.pdf

 

No out of state listed filming location:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0491175/locations

[YM!]

What does Paramount have that can do $150M+ domestic outside of MI6? Bumblebee and Spongebob 3 have chances but competition can hurt both of them badly. Top Gun 2 has the best chance but it could easily be an unwanted or unappealing sequel.

Edited September 10, 2017 by YourMother

[grim22]

Just now, YourMother said:

What does Paramount have that can do $150M+ outside of MI6? Bumblebee and Spongebob 3 have chances but competition can hurt both of them badly. Top Gun 2 has the best chance but it could easily be an unwanted or unappealing sequel.

 

Their 2018-2019 slate may be a case where no movie gets to 200M, and only one (MI6) gets to 150M. The smaller movies might make profits, but this is one sad looking slate in terms of box office potential

 

2017 Cloverfield Movie	2/2/18
Annihilation	2/23/18
Action Point	3/23/18
Sherlock Gnomes	3/23/18
A Quiet Place	4/6/18
Mission: Impossible 6	7/27/18
Overlord	10/26/18
Untitled Paramount Event Film	11/2/18
Bumblebee	12/21/18
Amusement Park	3/15/19
Transformers 7	6/28/19
Top Gun (2019)	7/12/19
The SpongeBob Movie	8/2/19
Gemini Man	10/4/19

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Jumanji has the potential to be the Sing of 2017 for the holidays. Thinking Alvin 2 numbers for it. The Star should make a nice small profit too, but it'd be unremarkable. I understand why Sony is so gung-ho about the Spider-Man spinoffs, outside of Homecoming and Baby Driver, Sony has had a bad year especially their animation arm. Wouldn't be surprised one of its 4 films for 2018 gets pushed back.

Emoji was lucky August was so dire but The Star won't be so lucky. They have to do better next year or SPA are in trouble. To have no animated film crack $100m domestic or over $300m WW is not good at all regardless of budget.

 

I'd delay Goosebumps 2 to MLK weekend 2019, if Smallfoot does okay, it's going to hurt Goosebumps 2.

[YM!]

Just now, Jonwo said:

Emoji was lucky August was so dire but The Star won't be so lucky. They have to do better next year or SPA are in trouble. To have no animated film crack $100m domestic or over $300m WW is not good at all regardless of budget.

 

I'd delay Goosebumps 2 to MLK weekend 2019, if Smallfoot does okay, it's going to hurt Goosebumps 2.

The budget for The Star is so small even if it does Smurfs numbers DOM ($45M), it makes a profit. 

 

They should just just stick to animation. Give Columbia Peter Rabbit and Goosebumps 2, and other hybrids, and focus on animation. SPA although trying has no clear concept on what to do. Even Angry Birds 2 is a SPA joint now. Paramount Animation even looks better in terms of box office potential tbh.

 

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, YourMother said:

What does Paramount have that can do $150M+  domestic outside of MI6? Bumblebee and Spongebob 3 

Untitled Paramount Event Film

11/2/18

 

Seem like the best candidate.

 

Top Gun 2 I guess, such an hard franchise to imagine what they will do with it too.

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Their 2018-2019 slate may be a case where no movie gets to 200M, and only one (MI6) gets to 150M. The smaller movies might make profits, but this is one sad looking slate in terms of box office potential

 

2017 Cloverfield Movie	2/2/18
Annihilation	2/23/18
Action Point	3/23/18
Sherlock Gnomes	3/23/18
A Quiet Place	4/6/18
Mission: Impossible 6	7/27/18
Overlord	10/26/18
Untitled Paramount Event Film	11/2/18
Bumblebee	12/21/18
Amusement Park	3/15/19
Transformers 7	6/28/19
Top Gun (2019)	7/12/19
The SpongeBob Movie	8/2/19
Gemini Man	10/4/19

 

Top Gun has a chance if it's marketed right, the first one adjusts to 423M.  I really think the only money losers will be Amusement Park/Sherlock Gnomes (unless they keep the budget low) and the Transformers movies and even then that's debatable since we don't know how they'll do OS.  They'll get out of their slump eventually.

[DAJK]

I'd imagine IT's success could help some of the other horror movies this fall.

 

For example, Happy Death Day trailernis playing in front of every showing of It all week at my theatre (and I imagine it's entire run). That's probably the case at a lot of theatres, and that's going to be millions of people exposed to the trailer.