Weekend thread | IT Floats again in its 4th weekend: 17.3M...Cruise and Kingsman fight it out for 2nd: 17.016 and 17.0

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

I'm going with Rockwell over Dafoe right now just because Three Billboards has a legit shot at winning BP while I don't think Florida Project will go anywhere outside of Dafoe.

I actually do agree Three Billboards is a sleeper BP winner. I'm not sold that Dunkirk/Shape is a lock for it and Billboards won People's Choice for a reason, apparently it is just playing unbelievably well with crowds. But I do think that Florida Project gets in - its an important examination, people like Sean Baker, and reviews are terrific. And Dafoe just seems like the kind of guy people want to reward over either Hammer (Justin or Armie).

[Cmasterclay]

I would say the only thing that can stop Oldman is his big anti-Jews in Hollywood rant the other year, but this is the same Academy that nominated Mel fucking Gibson last year, so he'll be fine. The only thing stopping him is DDL being a complete mind blower in Phantom Thread, which we know nothing about even if it does release.

[grim22]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

I would say the only thing that can stop Oldman is his big anti-Jews in Hollywood rant the other year, but this is the same Academy that nominated Mel fucking Gibson last year, so he'll be fine. The only thing stopping him is DDL being a complete mind blower in Phantom Thread, which we know nothing about even if it does release.

 

As long as he doesn't go on a rant again this year, he should be fine.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I would say the only thing that can stop Oldman is his big anti-Jews in Hollywood rant the other year, but this is the same Academy that nominated Mel fucking Gibson last year, so he'll be fine. The only thing stopping him is DDL being a complete mind blower in Phantom Thread, which we know nothing about even if it does release.

If Oldman fell and DDL isn't coming this year, could we be looking at a James Franco win?  (I think Chalamet is too young for this category to win)

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

If Oldman fell and DDL isn't coming this year, could we be looking at a James Franco win?  (I think Chalamet is too young for this category to win)

If that happened, I would go Hanks - the role is showy and it's about damn fucking time for him to win his third. In the span of Hollywood history and putting it in weird relative terms, I think it's just as much "time" for a legit GOAT contender and icon like Hanks or Denzel to win their third than respected veteran respected actor X (i.e. Oldman) to win their first.

[Rumpot]

17 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But what Moviepass does is change the "value" of movies to folks.  It doesn't matter if it goes under in 12 months - it's caused people to revalue how much they'll pay for tickets.  Once folks get a year of movies at $10/month, are they gonna go back to paying $11 ever for just one movie?  You've now maxed out the 2d movie ticket to all these folks who both have it and know about it to $10.

 

At the time, in 1997, no one knew if Netflix would take off, but it changed the game...only 5 years later, in 2002, Redbox also came along b/c they saw the reprice strategy and charged $1/video for what Blockbuster was charging $5 for...attacks at the previous $5/price came at all sides (by both monthly fee and per video fee), and consumers bailed for the much cheaper alternatives...

 

So whether Moviepass stays or goes, its concept will continue to be tested, probably in multiple ways...and that concept is repricing the value of the seats...right now, it's gonna be hard to break the price mindset that got so public at the end of August...

That makes sense and I do think creative discounting/subscription is coming.  AMC said so recently but of course they will need studios on board or they may take a heavy loss on Star Wars type mega openings.  

 

In the meantime promos with points, raffles, concession deals etc are increasing and can be catchy.  Unlike moviepass you can book from home and in advance, get the deal/points on several tickets at once, and do IMAX/PLFs.  

 

As for moviepass I doubt 12 months as they only had 20-30M.  Between ramping up staff and the surge of tickets they are paying full price for they need to raise some money fast or I can't imagine they last through 2017.  I think they will start trying to sneak in some price raises and/or limitations by November

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

If Oldman fell and DDL isn't coming this year, could we be looking at a James Franco win?  (I think Chalamet is too young for this category to win)

I don't think James Franco is coming near an Oscar nomination. I mean, come on. He's playing Tommy Wiseau, of all people. 

[Cmasterclay]

If they really go for Blade Runner I can see Gosling sneaking in, even. I think his movie looks god-fucking-awful, but maybe they go Garfield. And I'm not ruling Franco or even Renner out. With Stronger disappointing at the BO, Call Me By Your Name making me question how much the Academy will go for it everytime I read about it, and nothing from the Post or Phantom Thread, this field is a clusterfuck. I think that Oldman is a lock, but a remaining field of Denzel/DDL/Bale/Hanks (starpower!!) is just as likely as Gyllenhaal/Franco/Garfield/Gosling. Mix and match it. Exciting!

[filmlover]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

If they really go for Blade Runner I can see Gosling sneaking in, even. I think his movie looks god-fucking-awful, but maybe they go Garfield. And I'm not ruling Franco or even Renner out. With Stronger disappointing at the BO, Call Me By Your Name making me question how much the Academy will go for it everytime I read about it, and nothing from the Post or Phantom Thread, this field is a clusterfuck. I think that Oldman is a lock, but a remaining field of Denzel/DDL/Bale/Hanks (starpower!!) is just as likely as Gyllenhaal/Franco/Garfield/Gosling. Mix and match it. Exciting!

Bale isn't happening. Hostiles didn't get picked up at any of the festivals, so I'm guessing it'll eventually emerge under one of these random independent distributors someday. Also, I'm pretty sure Denzel's film is moving to next year considering Sony hasn't even begun marketing it yet.

 

If Theron couldn't break through for Mad Max in a weak year for Best Actress, I don't see why Gosling would even in a similarly weak year for Best Actor.

[Maxmoser3]

For this weekend September 21-23 2012 says hi. 

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Bale isn't happening. Hostiles didn't get picked up at any of the festivals, so I'm guessing it'll eventually emerge under one of these random independent distributors someday. Also, I'm pretty sure Denzel's film is moving to next year considering Sony hasn't even begun marketing it yet.

 

If Theron couldn't break through for Mad Max in a weak year for Best Actress, I don't see why Gosling would even in a similarly weak year for Best Actor.

Because Theron was in a pure, fast-paced action movie with limited dialogue where the movie was named after another character. Blade Runner is a talky 3 hour movie where Gosling is probably in every scene. I don't think it happens, but that's the logic.

 

I think Roman Israel moves to Xmas.

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

For this weekend September 21-23 2012 says hi. 

 

How so?

[Damianport1]

Gosling is not happening.

 

Oldman

Chalamet

Gyllenhaal

DDL

Hanks

 

thats my 5.

other options:

 

Garfield

Franco

Renner

Jackman

 

[Zakiyyah6]

I don't see it happening but I hope IT goes back to the top of the charts. 

[HesAPooka]

MT

AM 17.5

ninjagi 16.2

it 15.4

kingman 13.1

 

AM still on top bodes well for it.

[Barnack]

9 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

Jesus people don't understand pulse of the audience. Gone are the days that a sequel to a good movie will increase over the first one unless it was a phenomena or something. Even then there is no guarantee because you have to also see whether the first one peaked at the BO or not.

 

When were those days ? Sequel always more often than not decreased, it was more true in the past than now imo, 30% decrease was the norm back in the days.

[baumer]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

American Made will probably stay flat from Friday with previews included, at least. Have to imagine it's skewing older for the most part.

 

I think that's reasonable.  A 10-15% jump from it's true Friday.

[Zakiyyah6]

I was late to the party but there were people long ago that thought Kingsman 2 was going to decrease domestically. Most of us ignored the signs. Yanking the film out of the summer and dumping it in September was a sign even though we pretended that it wasn't. Yes films can make money in September but why put this sequel in September?

 

Personally I think they are lucky it is doing as well as it is. It's going to be interesting to see how it holds up under another R-rated adult movie that is probably a lock for a 40-plus million opening.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Barnack said:

When were those days ? Sequel always more often than not decreased, it was more true in the past than now imo, 30% decrease was the norm back in the days.

 

Not true at all.  Sequels to films that hit the zeitgeist usually decreased.  But films that were moderate hits more times than not increased.  It's debatable as to whether or not Kingsman fell into that category.  I think it had room to grow, but not much.  I personally didn't expect an increase for it domestically but there are a litany of examples of films that increased substantially for the sequel.  The one kind of odd one that bucked the trend when it came to zeitgeist stuff is Lord of the Rings.  Each sequel inexplicably increased.

[HesAPooka]

 

http://deadline.com/2017/09/tom-cruise-emma-stone-american-made-battle-of-the-sexes-flatliners-weekend-box-office-1202179279/

 

Quote

Universal

 

Saturday AM writethru after Friday 11:57 PM post: Tom Cruise’s American Made is looking to plant its flag at No. 1 with a $16.55M start, but the Doug Liman-directed 1980s-era CIA thriller is still in a dead heat with 20th Century Fox/MARV’s Kingsman: The Golden Circle ($16.5M), with New Line/Warner Bros’ It not too far behind at $16.2M; a very different B.O. landscape from what we saw at Friday midday. Tonight’s surge factor will likely dictate who comes out on top and rivals are divided on whether that’s Kingsman or American Made.

 

I suspect it'll finish above 16.55 as the movie has been trending up and over projections all weekend.

Edited September 30, 2017 by HesAPooka