grey ghost Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 (edited) I say this will be frontloaded over the weekend for two main reasons: 1) Fanboy property/franchise 2) Mixed WOM (due to pacing and legnth) Edited October 6, 2017 by grey ghost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 If MLP follows Boss Baby: 3M 3.9M 2.8M 9.7M Weekend Storks: 3.8M 6.2M 4M 14M Weekend There's a lot of ways MLP can go, but it'll probably hit 10M at least. If MBU follows Home Again: 4.1M 4.7M 2.6M 11.4M Weekend Girl on the Train: 3.1M 3.2M 1.9M 8.2M Weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCKillswitch123 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, Damianport1 said: meh Someone's insecure of Nolan's place in the hearts of everyone due to Villeneuve's arrival, it seems 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lestranger Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 27 minutes ago, raegr said: I think this has a solid shot at $50M and here's why... Let's look at the target demographic for Blade Runner, the GA, older audiences and Ryan Gosling fans + cinephiles who loved the original. The older audiences will most likely not see until later in the weekend. It's mostly the cinephiles and nerds who are seeing this on preview night, that's why I think this will be much more backloaded than expected... $56.4M It is also super long. That doesn't play well for Thursday night movies. I don't think there is a good comp for this. I expect it to overperform these preview numbers pretty massively. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dxmatrixdt Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Ghost in the Shell and Valerian each did about 10x previews. This sets up 40M. I'd say 10P + P = 44 million 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 I agree that the long run-time may turn people off a bit for Thursday night viewing, hopefully it'll continue to do solid business over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 16 minutes ago, grey ghost said: I say this will be frontloaded over the weekend for two main reasons: 1) Fanboy property/franchise 2) Mixed WOM (due to pacing and legnth) Eh you'd be surprised. Most people I've talked to who have no interest in it is BECAUSE they love the original movie. They don't want to see it "ruined'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Runtimes without credits and attachments for next week: Marshall: 1:53. Attachments unknown. The Foreigner: 1:47. Attachments are Den of Thieves and Molly's Game. Happy Death Day: 1:30. Attachments are Insidious, Pitch Perfect, and Thoroughbreds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 I didn't realize how short HDD is. That'll be a BIG help for the number of showtimes next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Runtimes without credits and attachments for next week: Marshall: 1:53. Attachments unknown. The Foreigner: 1:47. Attachments are Den of Thieves and Molly's Game. Happy Death Day: 1:30. Attachments are Insidious, Pitch Perfect, and Thoroughbreds. That's the Anya Taylor-Joy/Olivia Cooke/Anton Yelchin (his last) movie from Sundance. Still doesn't have a release date. Possibly a first quarter 2018 release? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxmoser3 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Decent for Blade Runner. Not too grand for Pony or Mountain, both films will likely debut between $8-$9 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Anyway @WrathOfHan: 11x: Geostorm: Kong: Skull Island, Life, Wonder Woman, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, Spider-Man: Homecoming, War for the Planet of the Apes 4K, Transformers: The Last Knight, 47 Meters Down, The Big Sick Round 2, Megan Leavey, Blade Runner 8x: Pitch Perfect 3: Baby Driver, Despicable Me 3, Spider-Man: Homecoming, War for the Planet of the Apes 4K, The Big Sick, Spider-Man: Homecoming Round 2, The Big Sick Round 2, Girls TripBlade Runner 2049: Wonder Woman, Dunkirk IMAX, The Glass Castle, War for the Planet of the Apes Round 2, Good Time, Terminator 2: Judgment Day 3D, Dunkirk Round 2, mother! Coco: Beauty and the Beast, Beauty and the Beast Round 2, Cars 3, Despicable Me 3, The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast 1991, Mulan, The LEGO Ninjago Movie, Tangled Justice League: Dunkirk IMAX, Wonder Woman Round 3, Spider-Man: Homecoming Round 2, Detroit, Dunkirk Round 2, It, The Hitman’s Bodyguard, Blade Runner 6x: Ferdinand: The Boss Baby, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul, Captain Underpants, Cars 3, Despicable Me 3, The Emoji MovieThe Mountain Between Us: Wonder Woman Round 3, The Glass Castle, Detroit, Annabelle: Creation, Brigsby Bear, Girls Trip 5x: The Foreigner: Baby Driver, Detroit, Terminator 2: Judgment Day 3D, Dunkirk Round 2, The Dark Tower A Bad Moms Christmas: The Big Sick, Atomic Blonde, Annabelle: Creation, Girls Trip, It Daddy’s Home 2: Transformers: The Last Knight, War for the Planet of the Apes Round 2, The Big Sick Round 2, Girls Trip, The LEGO Ninjago Movie 4x: Star Wars: The Last Jedi: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Round 2, Dunkirk IMAX Thor: Ragnarok: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Round 2, Wonder Woman Round 3, Terminator 2: Judgment Day 3D Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: Free Fire, A Ghost Story, Good Time, Wind River Murder on the Orient Express: Wonder Woman, It Comes At Night, War for the Planet of the Apes Round 2, It The Snowman: Atomic Blonde, Dunkirk Round 2, Wind River, mother!My Little Pony: Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul, Captain Underpants, The Emoji Movie, The LEGO Ninjago Movie 3x: Death Wish: Detroit, Annabelle: Creation, Terminator 2: Judgment Day 3D Thank You for Your Service: A Ghost Story, The Glass Castle, The Dark Tower Happy Death Day: Annabelle: Creation, 47 Meters Down, It Suburbicon: Good Time, Wind River, mother! Olaf’s Frozen Adventure: The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast 1991, Mulan Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle: Spider-Man: Homecoming, Spider-Man: Homecoming Round 2, The LEGO Ninjago Movie 2x: Deadpool 2: Logan, Logan Round 2The Florida Project: Brigsby Bear, Good Time Professor Marston and the Wonder Women: Wonder Woman, The Dark Tower The Shape of Water: War for the Planet of the Apes Round 2, mother! Molly’s Game: Logan Lucky, mother! Black Panther: The Hitman’s Bodyguard, mother! 1x: The Greatest Showman: Despicable Me 3 Marshall: War for the Planet of the Apes 4K The Star: The Emoji Movie A Wrinkle in Time: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets Darkest Hour: Atomic Blonde Wonder: The Glass Castle Only the Brave: Detroit Call Me by Your Name: Brigsby Bear Novitiate: Brigsby Bear Breathe: Logan Lucky The Killing of a Sacred Deer: Good Time Same Kind of Different as Me: Megan Leavey Forever My Girl: Megan Leavey Alpha: Dunkirk Round 2 Proud Mary: Girls Trip The Current War: Wind River Polaroid: Wind River Ready Player One: It Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: The Hitman’s Bodyguard Downsizing: mother! Paddington 2: The LEGO Ninjago Movie Isle of Dogs: The LEGO Ninjago Movie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 (edited) Nut Job 2 did 330k previews and 8.34m ow but that was a sequel. So My Little Pony one could do 8.5-9.5m even with smaller previews (290k). Would't be surprised if it legs it to 3.5x+ (like The Emoji Movie) with that ow for 30-35m dom. Nut Job 2 itself did 3.4x. Anyone know the prod budget? Edited October 6, 2017 by a2knet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 (edited) 8 hours ago, Krissykins said: Hmm this sounds like a strange deal. Why would WB pay for 4,000 locations to get 10%? Plus why would WB be interested? Anymore info on this anywhere? With digital release being more and more the norm, does you have to pay for 4,000 locations more than for 3,500, or the more theater that accept to play your movie the better without adding necessarily much to the cost ? I would also be interest to a 10% (and not the 20 or 30) type of deal info, same for Paramount 8-9% on those marvel distribution, at those price I imagine the producer pay for all the P&A ? Because 10% of 53% of the box office is not a lot, even on a 150m gross, around 7.95m and a movie like this had a 30m+ domestic P&A. Edited October 6, 2017 by Barnack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, a2knet said: Nut Job 2 did 330k previews and 8.34m ow but that was a sequel. So My Little Pony one could do 8.5-9.5m even with smaller previews (290k). Would't be surprised if it legs it to 3.5x+ (like The Emoji Movie) with that ow for 30-35m dom. Anyone know the prod budget? School was also out in many areas for Nut Job as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Outrageous! Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 29 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: If MLP follows Boss Baby: 3M 3.9M 2.8M 9.7M Weekend Storks: 3.8M 6.2M 4M 14M Weekend There's a lot of ways MLP can go, but it'll probably hit 10M at least. I'm skeptical MLP can get to $10 million. Its opening days are fan driven, and when compared to most animated movies, MLP skews much more heavily towards a girl audience, and mostly excludes a boy audience. Most other animated films would try to bring in an equal amount of boys and girls if possible. That means quick drop offs in its opening days and in its second weekend are likely for MLP, when compared to the box office numbers of recent animated films. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 My Little Pony is looking to land in the $8-10M range for the weekend, which is where I always thought it would land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: School was also out in many areas for Nut Job as well. 1 minute ago, filmlover said: My Little Pony is looking to land in the $8-10M range for the weekend, which is where I always thought it would land. AUDIENCE SCORE 92% liked it Average Rating: 4.5/5 User Ratings: 2,458 Telling you, 10m, 4x, 40m dom incoming. If it beats Smurfs3, SPA should shoot themselves in the face. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, a2knet said: Nut Job 2 did 330k previews and 8.34m ow but that was a sequel. So My Little Pony one could do 8.5-9.5m even with smaller previews (290k). Would't be surprised if it legs it to 3.5x+ (like The Emoji Movie) with that ow for 30-35m dom. Nut Job 2 itself did 3.4x. Anyone know the prod budget? 4chan posted rumors of $65M...but that seems high (although I haven't seen the movie) - that might also be a gross number before tax credits... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 I don't think MLP is going to be as frontloaded as some of you think it will be, nor do I think it'll have stellar legs. 12/34 is probably fair. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
