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Water Bottle

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51 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

This is madness. Ive followed this situation for weeks now and was personally convinced that an invasion would happen after the olympics but to see it now actually happening in the beginning stages ...

 

This will change the security architecture of Europe and the world. It will have serious consequences for the EU, NATO. Taiwan and Communist China will look very closely how this unfolds.

 

Btw as a history student i must say that Putin is following the formula of a certain austrian madmen very closely ... if it wasnt so unfunny, id call it ironic considering the Soviet Union was the country (along with Poland) that suffered the most in WW2.

 

So who becomes Kaiser Wilhelm and declares war on everyone just for fun.

 

😁😁

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Since historical analogies are all the rage in this thread today...

 

I don't know when the next great European War will start, but I do know it'll be because of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans Baltics.

Spoiler

Am I memeing?

Spoiler

Yes

Spoiler

Am I making a multi-faceted point about how there is next to no appetite for a full scale war (or even a small scale war for that matter) right now but that if a NATO-ally state like Estonia or Latvia gets embroiled, every last bet is off?

Spoiler

Again yes.

Spoiler

Is the other facet of my original meme is that if one worries about WWIII, it's not developments in the Ukraine which will lead to it, but that various pro-Russia movements in the Baltics could be much much much more dicey?

Spoiler

DING DING DING DING DING DING DING

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

 

"WW3" kinda requires a second major multinational bloc to start shooting back, and there is exactly zero indication that is happening any time soon.

 

The only way WW3 breaks out is if Putin gets aggressive and bold enough to attack a NATO ally. 

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4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Since historical analogies are all the rage in this thread today...

 

I don't know when the next great European War will start, but I do know it'll be because of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans Baltics.

  Hide contents

Am I memeing?

  Hide contents

Yes

  Hide contents

Am I making a multi-faceted point about how there is next to no appetite for a full scale war (or even a small scale war for that matter) right now but that if a NATO-ally state like Estonia or Latvia gets embroiled, every last bet is off?

  Hide contents

Again yes.

  Hide contents

Is the other facet of my original meme is that if one worries about WWIII, it's not developments in the Ukraine which will lead to it, but that various pro-Russia movements in the Baltics could be much much much more dicey?

  Hide contents

DING DING DING DING DING DING DING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basically, there's a lot we don't know about what the endgame is, but there is certainly a lot of ways this can play out

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7 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

The only way WW3 breaks out is if Putin gets aggressive and bold enough to attack a NATO ally. 

 

Even then it's dicey depending on just how it plays out.  I riffed on a famous saying from Bismark (which is more or less disputed, but it's too appropriate not to use).  If a Baltic State, like say Latvia, were to fall into civil war/have a full scale separatist movement arise?  Well, it's not quite as simple as "bold enough to attack a NATO ally".

 

Becomes a hell of a lot more complicated though.  Which is where the WW ONE analogies get stronger.

 

As it is, we're a long long way off from that point.  If ever, for that matter (I am in the camp of "if ever" for the record).  But I suppose I am saying that the lead up to WWII has very limited value here (Putin is absolutely no Hitler.  Or Stalin. Or Mussolini, for that matter).  Even WWI ones are still limited, though that does have the value of alliances at play.

 

No, as Numbers just said/implied, this really is its own thing with its own playbook and one that is taking far longer to play out with lots and lots and lots of different permutations.

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1 hour ago, Eric Drake said:

TIL that to the youths today, Judd Apatow's a nobody who only makes cult films. I think this is the first time I truly feel ancient and out of touch with today's generation.

hey when I was 16 I didn't know what Krang from Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was and it caused someone to feel old then too.

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Just found out there are some absolute morons who are conspiracy theorists who are also anti-vaxxers because they, and I am not kidding, think that the Covid vaccine is giving people AIDS.

 

Literally too dumb to live, I hope they don't look up with their mouth open when it rains.

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On 2/21/2022 at 3:35 PM, grim22 said:

 

Here you go

 

"Peacekeeping" for sure.

 

Officially putting more troops in regions where they've already unofficially been for the past 8 years is quite different than all the talk these past 3 weeks of 150,000-200,000 Ivans charging towards Kiev through the ashes of a bombed out Ukrainian army.  With that said, recognizing these regions as independent and reinforcing them seems like a dumb move strategically and is undeniably a provocation and escalation by Russia and significantly raises the possibility of all that.  Russia is now the clear aggressor, but that doesn't absolve us of any fault as to how we got here.   A major war in Europe is now very possible, maybe even likely, for the first time in 70 years, hopefully all the hard heads involved are satisfied...Raytheon and oil execs certainly are.

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