5-Day Weekend Thread | Saturday #s (Asgard p.109) - Coco 17.7, Justice League 15.7, Wonder 8.3, Thor: Ragnarok 6.4, Daddy's Home 2 5.3

[cannastop]

According to BOM, Coco made $18.4m on Saturday, but according to Rth, it made $17.7m. Whom to trust?

[AniNate]

I don't think "princess fans" vs. "adults, Pixar fans, and the Latino audience in general" is a zero sum issue. Clearly the buzz on the Frozen short is not good and Disney would benefit in the PR and audience morale department by pulling it.

[FantasticBeasts]

6 minutes ago, cannastop said:

According to BOM, Coco made $18.4m on Saturday, but according to Rth, it made $17.7m. Whom to trust?

BOM since Rth's update came earlier.

[RamblinRed]

So will JL stay above 40M for the 3-day once actuals are released tomorrow? They were off by over $2MM last week.

If it follows FB it would end up with about $240, but even that starts to seem a stretch as it is running 10% behind daily since Wednesday and has 2 long leg issues of running behind another film means less time in theaters than that film and TLJ is a much bigger monster to contend with than R1, so $235 might be a more likely number. it amazes and disappoints me to think JL may need 21 days to get to $200M.

 

Coco is off to a very good (not great) start. $200M should be relatively easy. Thinking closer to $225. Disney usually is the closest to the estimates of the studios and tends to under estimate more than over estimate. Will be interested to see Coco's final number tomorrow. 

 

Thor and Wonder both had good weekends.

 

 

 

 

 

[RamblinRed]

BOM are the official studio estimates so those are the ones to go by.

 

[ZeeSoh]

25 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

JL gross breakdown this week

 

Dom - 77.66 (estimated)

China -  31.97 (16.37 weekend (-68.6%) and 15.6 weekdays)

OS-Ch - 92.83 (55.83 weekend and 37 weekdays) (estimates)

Total - 481.3m

 

Dom - It's currently at 171m total and with FB/MJ2 legs it will get to a final total of 240m. Since legs on average so far have been worse than either of these movies I doubt it can get to 240m. I would say a total of 230-235 is more likely. 

 

China - Total stands at 83m after the weekend. Thor for reference was at 95.3m or so after its second weekend and it has thus far made about 16m more. Since JL's legs have been worse than Thor's so far (68.6% vs 60.5% drops for the weekend) I would expect JL to make less than 16m in its remaining run. However Thor faced JL in its 3rd weekend and lost lots of its screens. JL is lucky and will not face any big or medium sized openers so should hold on to a good chunk of its screens. So I would say it can make 16-17m more from China and get to 100m at least

 

OS - Total OS-China stands at 226 right now after making 92.83 for the week.  50% week on week fall will get JL another 90 million or so from OS territories. This leads to a total OS-Ch of 316 and total OS with China of 416m. However I doubt JL will manage 50% week on week fall, at least for the next week, given that even Thor did not manage that. I think a fall of 55-60% is more likely with an OS-Ch gross of 75 million more. That would give a total overseas with China of around 400 million

 

Total - Using the numbers above I would give it a range of 630 to 670 million (realistic projection). A more optimistic projection would be 660 to 700 million. Right now I am gonna go with my realistic projection.s 

 

My analysis and projections for JL in the OS thread

[Rumpot]

The next 14 days of box office calm will determine how 2017 stacks vs 2016.  If Wonder and Coco hold well and the limiteds expand well then that will go a long way.  The biggest advantage the 2017 box office has is it will contain 3 full weekends of Star Wars unlike 2015 and 2016 did thanks to the way the days fall in December.

[FantasticBeasts]

This is definetely the best period to follow BO.

God bless us through January...

[KJsooner]

Hilarious drop for JL, I wonder how brainiac and mredman will spin it.

[EmpireCity]

3 hours ago, YourMother said:

To be honest, I’m not going to lie JL’s performance has me kind of leery at IW’s performance domestically.

Why?  That doesn't make any sense.  

[Rebeccas]

6 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Why?  That doesn't make any sense.  

I guess they’re assuming that people can’t tell one superhero team from another? But that doesn’t exactly explain why JL is doing so much worse than any MCU film this year and way worse than WW from its own universe. Audiences seem pretty discerning and savy these days. 

Edited November 26, 2017 by Rebeccas

[YM!]

22 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Why?  That doesn't make any sense.  

The fact that audiences are going for solo movies (or smaller teamups) rather than the big ensemble team-ups (however JL was faced with a plethora of problems) and that the ceiling for Avengers movies domestically seem to be shrinking.

 

I am still thinking $210M/$450M but I can see a very small chance (5%) it goes under $400M. 

[MCKillswitch123]

A little disappointed that Coco or Wonder didn't see better holds through the 5-day given how promising they were looking, but alas, both still having very good weekends and all. Wonder is looking at 130-140M, while Coco will get to 200-220M imo. Both excellent totals for the movies given the predictions before their debuts.

 

JL not the pits, but still, a 56% drop on a holiday weekend isn't great either. SteveJaros' JL > Thor and Coco prediction gets more hilarious by the day. JL will barely outgross Coco alone, and Thor will get a 70-80M distance over it. Hell, both of them - including Coco - might outgross it WW, which sounds insane but seems very likely now.

 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

A little disappointed that Coco or Wonder didn't see better holds through the 5-day given how promising they were looking, but alas, both still having very good weekends and all. Wonder is looking at 130-140M, while Coco will get to 200-220M imo. Both excellent totals for the movies given the predictions before their debuts.

 

JL not the pits, but still, a 56% drop on a holiday weekend isn't great either. SteveJaros' JL > Thor and Coco prediction gets more hilarious by the day. JL will barely outgross Coco alone, and Thor will get a 70-80M distance over it. Hell, both of them - including Coco - might outgross it WW, which sounds insane but seems very likely now.

 

Goes to show that the Kevin curse is weaker than the Jaros curse.

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

The fact that audiences are going for solo movies (or smaller teamups) rather than the big ensemble team-ups (however JL was faced with a plethora of problems) and that the ceiling for Avengers movies domestically seem to be shrinking.

 

I am still thinking $210M/$450M but I can see a very small chance (5%) it goes under $400M. 

Literally nothing suggests that. Justice League flopped because of its quality and predecessors

Edited November 26, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Literally nothing suggests that. Justice League flopped because of its quality and predecessors

I agree with this about JL flopping but the fact that the GA will need to know a large surplus of MCU movies make the Avengers movies less accessible.

[HenryjRhetorics]

AoU 460M, GOTG2 390M

IW below 400M.

 

JL less than 250M.

Aquaman +300M.

Flashpoint +300M.

WW2 +400M.

---

What kind of reverse arithmetic prediction model is this? 

There's no way in hell IW misses 400M DOM. Not a chance even if the reviews are as horrible as that of JL. 😏 

 

[Warmaster506]

Coco is doing pretty good which is some good news. 

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, HenryjRhetorics said:

AoU 460M, GOTG2 390M

IW below 400M.

Look I’m sticking with my $210M/$450M/$1.3B prediction but CW which was marketed as Avengers 2.5. barely doing $400M and having to know 8 films in advance might make accessibility hard. I’m not saying it’ll happen or is even likely, I’m saying there’s a small chance. A very small chance.

[HenryjRhetorics]

16 minutes ago, YourMother said:

The fact that audiences are going for solo movies (or smaller teamups) rather than the big ensemble team-ups (however JL was faced with a plethora of problems) and that the ceiling for Avengers movies domestically seem to be shrinking.

 

I am still thinking $210M/$450M but I can see a very small chance (5%) it goes under $400M. 

If it wasn't for GV2's 389M, I would've considered below 400M a possibility, a remote one. 

 

But with an OW that could be close to or higher than the final dom of JL, no way!