THE LAST JEDI (and Ferdinand) WEEKEND THREAD | JEDI 220m, FERDINAND 13.3m, COCO 10m (official estimates) | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SALE ON GOLD & PREMIUM ACCOUNTS IN FIRST POST

[YM!]

39 minutes ago, mredman said:

Must be your biased hate speaking. Because if you don't know JL is already on 634 now. And it will certainly do more than 16 million WW in entire run

It’s not bias. Mathematically speaking $700M isn’t happening.

[RichWS]

I love Star Wars movies like children. Even if they fuck up, the love is still there. Some more than others, though.

 

If I'm Lucille Bluth, Attack of the Clones is GOB. 

 

[MCKillswitch123]

36 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Wait, why are the fanboys hating TLJ? Good movie!

Without any spoilers, but I'll still put this in a spoiler box in case someone doesn't want to read even a hint at what it might be:

 

Spoiler

From my understanding, it's mostly - a kinda reaccionary mostly - because it resolved questions they spent a lot of time pondering about in ways that disappointed them. As well as it made some choices that they find disrespectful of the franchise and lore. The pacing, particularly with the 2nd act, and Marvel-like humor also seem general issues most have.

 

Some of their complaints I have to agree with, others I simply think that they're no big deals.

Edited December 17, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[JB33]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

You know, i often shit on the prequels (and sometimes on the Ewoks), but:

 

Thank you George Lucas for giving us Star Wars.

A-fucking-men! This is totally how I think as well. Sometimes the man can be a bit odd, and TPM and AoTC truly are not great films, but the man is still one of my heroes. The basis for all of this, the good and the bad, all comes from his mind and I'll forever be truly grateful.

[dxmatrixdt]

I am here for BMC numbers.  it played in 1,000 locations this weekend but has no estimate.  Anyone have a number?  It is sad this will loose about 500 theaters on Wednesday and the other 500 next weekend.  LOL.  If it somehow keeps 1000 locations for the next 3 weeks, it should plow past 80M

[Brainbug]

We shoudnt be surprised by a much harder Monday drop for TLJ, shoud we? With TFA, the first Monday was already deeper into the holidays if i remember correctly.

[a2k]

imdb drops below 8, is 7.9/10.

after 3-days tfa was 8.8 (8.0 currently) and ro was at 8.3 (7.4 currently).

looking at where tfa and ro 'ended' looks like tlj could settle around 7.0.

[JonathanLB]

I found this interesting from the New York Times: “The 3-D format accounted for 30 percent of ticket sales for “The Last Jedi,” according to Disney, down from 47 percent for “The Force Awakens.”

 

So inflation actually didn’t help TLJ at all because losing that many 3D tickets easily cost it more money than the average ticket price inflation. Certainly makes the opening even more impressive. It may continue to make it tougher to beat that $248M... which usually OW records don’t historically last long (I would love to know what the average reign is! Lol).

[Jonwo]

31 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I agree...it becomes the easy "Christmas present/family get-together" that appeals to everyone...

 

I would push out or pull forward Mary Poppins to make room for this movie for Christmas...I think Aquaman would move forward if Solo moves and I don't think anything else really would affect this movie...

I get the feeling Solo won't move to December, Poppins will be Disney's big Christmas film and given how troubled Solo was, I think Disney will move to August.

[Jonwo]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Next year will be interesting for sure, the holiday season especially I have a hard time finding out which film will be the highest grosser in December.

My gut feeling it'll be Mary Poppins followed by Aquaman with Spidey a respectable third.

[JB33]

5 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

I found this interesting from the New York Times: “The 3-D format accounted for 30 percent of ticket sales for “The Last Jedi,” according to Disney, down from 47 percent for “The Force Awakens.”

 

So inflation actually didn’t help TLJ at all because losing that many 3D tickets easily cost it more money than the average ticket price inflation. Certainly makes the opening even more impressive. It may continue to make it tougher to beat that $248M... which usually OW records don’t historically last long (I would love to know what the average reign is! Lol).

That IS impressive. Makes me happy too. It means admissions are even higher than it seems.

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

We shoudnt be surprised by a much harder Monday drop for TLJ, shoud we? With TFA, the first Monday was already deeper into the holidays if i remember correctly.

It will certainly be a harder drop...I mean with no changes, my locals are dropping from 28 and 20 showings on Sunday to 21 and 14 showings on Monday...so 33% is probably impossible...I'd say they should be looking for something in the low 40s as a really, really, good hold...

[JB33]

11 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

We shoudnt be surprised by a much harder Monday drop for TLJ, shoud we? With TFA, the first Monday was already deeper into the holidays if i remember correctly.

Nope, but I would think we will see a better drop than ROGUE ONE (53.3%). Halfway between the two would be a 43.55% drop. 

 

Does that sound about right to you guys?

[redfirebird2008]

16 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

We shoudnt be surprised by a much harder Monday drop for TLJ, shoud we? With TFA, the first Monday was already deeper into the holidays if i remember correctly.

 

Would think so. We can expect to start seeing more of the holiday effect around Wednesday or Thursday. I'm working this whole week, but I'm off from Saturday the 23rd through Monday the 1st. Only had to use 3 days of vacation time for 10 days off. Pretty badass. 

[JonathanLB]

To me this was fascinating as I admit I didn’t know how movie exit polling works. Deadline explains why not to trust RT user reviews:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/deadline.com/2017/12/star-wars-the-last-jedi-rotten-tomatoes-metacritic-imdb-users-cinemascore-posttrak-1202228837/amp/

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Nope, but I would think we will see a better drop than ROGUE ONE (53.3%). Halfway between the two would be a 43.55% drop. 

 

Does that sound about right to you guys?

I think it will be over 50%. It is an extra day earlier than holidays compared to Rogue One and 3 extra days earlier than Force Awakens. In 2006 when the 15th was a Friday, everything dropped way over 50% on Monday. 

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2006-12-18&p=.htm

[JB33]

If Sunday's gross goes up a few million from estimates, I would say there's a shot at $30M on Monday. $30,483,000, for instance, is a 43.55% drop from a $54M Sunday.

Edited December 17, 2017 by JB33

[RichWS]

I'm expecting a Rogue One 50-55% drop tomorrow.

[Johnny Tran]

My theories didn't pan out I'll go cry now.  

 

Fuck that.  The Last Jedi was epic. 

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

I think it will be over 50%. It is an extra day earlier than holidays compared to Rogue One and 3 extra days earlier than Force Awakens. In 2006 when the 15th was a Friday, everything dropped way over 50% on Monday. 

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2006-12-18&p=.htm

looking at that and accounting for how tue/wed behaves now thinking,

-55%

+20%

-10%

+10%

over the weekdays

Edited December 17, 2017 by a2knet