THE LAST JEDI (and Ferdinand) WEEKEND THREAD | JEDI 220m, FERDINAND 13.3m, COCO 10m (official estimates) | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SALE ON GOLD & PREMIUM ACCOUNTS IN FIRST POST

[B D Joe]

27 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

I found this interesting from the New York Times: “The 3-D format accounted for 30 percent of ticket sales for “The Last Jedi,” according to Disney, down from 47 percent for “The Force Awakens.”

 

So inflation actually didn’t help TLJ at all because losing that many 3D tickets easily cost it more money than the average ticket price inflation. Certainly makes the opening even more impressive. It may continue to make it tougher to beat that $248M... which usually OW records don’t historically last long (I would love to know what the average reign is! Lol).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_openings_for_films%23Biggest_opening_weekends_in_the_U.S._and_Canada&ved=2ahUKEwiN-Ju08ZHYAhVW0GMKHSyfAmIQygQwAHoECAoQAg&usg=AOvVaw2t28wSQyjlwhI25LeGIi79

 

In this century it seems to be about three years.

Edited December 17, 2017 by B D Joe

[JB33]

6 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

I think it will be over 50%. It is an extra day earlier than holidays compared to Rogue One and 3 extra days earlier than Force Awakens. In 2006 when the 15th was a Friday, everything dropped way over 50% on Monday. 

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2006-12-18&p=.htm

Interesting, however nothing that year compares to the size and popularity of Star Wars, which I think compensates a bit. There's an extra willingness to go see Star Wars on a non-holiday weekday compared to most other movies. Yes, ROGUE ONE dropped over 50%, but we all know there's a difference between that and saga films.

 

That all being said, it's not like I'd be shocked or disappointed by a 50% drop. I could just see it being sub-50% for the reasons I mentioned.

[Maxmoser3]

Star Wars debut is really not that bad... it’s actually pretty good since expectations were $200-$210 million pre weekend. Holds should be interesting since Star Wars  has its reign to itself for a possible month. 

 

Ferdinand well, that film looked ok. Definitely will be one with hopeful international markets and holiday legs could save some face. But for right now, ouch. 

 

[That One Girl]

Just now, Maxmoser3 said:

Star Wars debut is really not that bad

 

Is anyone claiming it is?

[RandomCat]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Is anyone claiming it is?

That one guy who thinks Disney is embezzling money from it.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Star Wars debut is really not that bad... it’s actually pretty good since expectations were $200-$210 million pre weekend. Holds should be interesting since Star Wars  has its reign to itself for a possible month. 

 

Ferdinand well, that film looked ok. Definitely will be one with hopeful international markets and holiday legs could save some face. But for right now, ouch. 

 

 

This is an odd thing to say when a movie just openend to 220M+ dollars.

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Interesting, however nothing that year compares to the size and popularity of Star Wars, which I think compensates a bit. There's an extra willingness to go see Star Wars on a non-holiday weekday compared to most other movies. Yes, ROGUE ONE dropped over 50%, but we all know there's a difference between that and saga films.

 

That all being said, it's not like I'd be shocked or disappointed by a 50% drop. I could just see it being sub-50% for the reasons I mentioned.

 

Yes, well under 50% Monday drop would be a great result if it happens. But I'm not expecting it. Keep expectations reasonable and then if it overperforms, that is just a nice surprise. 

[mredman]

50 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

It’s not bias. Mathematically speaking $700M isn’t happening.

he said it wouldnt make it to $650M

Edited December 17, 2017 by mredman

[aabattery]

220 million.

 

It's okay, I guess.

[Noctis]

5 minutes ago, mredman said:

he said it wouldnt make it to $650M

NO.

 

ONE.

 

CARES.

 

You're talking about a Justice League movie that's gonna end up passing $650m by not much and will definitely not pass $700m. So who cares whether someone thought it wouldn't pass $650m (and it'll only pass it barely) when it should have hit over $1b handily. 

 

 

[DAR]

It's not that bad for a 200 million dollar opening 

[RandomCat]

1 minute ago, DARth DAR said:

It's not that bad for a 200 million dollar opening 

#NotAnEvent

[Jonwo]

Next weekend will be interesting with the other big Christmas releases, I think Jumanji will do strong numbers for its opening five-six days. PP3 and The Greatest Showman are likely DOA. I'm more interested how Downsizing fares and how The Post and Molly's Game do in limited release, I suspect The Post will have a strong PTA.

[Brainbug]

@Valonqar didnt you think that the reception to Rogue One would limit the potential for The Last Jedi? If so, that wasnt the case it seems

[RamblinRed]

First on the JL discussion. I am expecting it to end up close to 235 DOM and 675 WW. Hard to see much more than that. It lost alot of screens (over 800) this weekend and will lose alot more over the next week. Jumanji could be the final nail in the coffin. Coco will end up beating it out WW pretty easily imo, it will be interesting to see if Coco has enough legs to beat it out DOM - could be pretty close.

 

Fantastic number for TLJ. To me anything over 210 I would consider great. If you take out the previews it is running only 8.5% behind TFA FRI-SUN so far and if the Monday actual is higher (which seems more likely given the estimates) than lower, than that could be even less.

 

Really nice number for Coco as well who lost alot more screens than Moana did last year. 

 

Right now imo the range for TLJ is about 660 (3.0) to 825 (3.75) - though those are the extremes of the range. With the likely scenario in the 748-770 range (3.4-3.5). 

 

Finally, TLJ's opening weekend WW all but guarantees that Disney is going to go over $6B WW for the second time in 3 years (the third year it was $5.885B). What truly amazes me about that is that they are going to do that with 8 films released in 2017 - one of which was a documentary which grossed 24M WW.

 

After 3 days TLJ is the 10th highest grossing film DOM and 18th highest grossing WW for 2017.

 

How close can TLJ get to TFA's December record. It gets 3 more days in December than TFA got including and extra weekend?

 

 

 

[dxmatrixdt]

220 seems to be in line with what forecaster were giving TDKR and Ultron when analzying how high can this go?  It looks like 5-10 million was left on the table Saturday and maybe the previews could have added 5m more.  I blame reserved seating.  People can become more picky and therefore patient.  Gone of the days of massive lines for the same showing with a give and go atmosphere for payment / reciept.

[EmpireCity]

51 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

To me this was fascinating as I admit I didn’t know how movie exit polling works. Deadline explains why not to trust RT user reviews:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/deadline.com/2017/12/star-wars-the-last-jedi-rotten-tomatoes-metacritic-imdb-users-cinemascore-posttrak-1202228837/amp/

 

So, basically what I was trying to tell everyone on Friday morning.  The "pros" all came to the exact same conclusion I was giving everyone here.  Fuckers likely even stole it right from me!  =)

[Amrwael22]

26 minutes ago, mredman said:

he said it wouldnt make it to $650M

can't u stop ruining TLJ epic numbers talk with the JL makin' 650M or 670M   

[EmpireCity]

22 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Next weekend will be interesting with the other big Christmas releases, I think Jumanji will do strong numbers for its opening five-six days. PP3 and The Greatest Showman are likely DOA. I'm more interested how Downsizing fares and how The Post and Molly's Game do in limited release, I suspect The Post will have a strong PTA.

 

I was down on Pitch Perfect 3, but pre-sales are pretty strong.  

[That One Girl]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

 

I was down on Pitch Perfect 3, but pre-sales are pretty strong.  

 

How much do you think it makes?