THE LAST JEDI (and Ferdinand) WEEKEND THREAD | JEDI 220m, FERDINAND 13.3m, COCO 10m (official estimates) | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SALE ON GOLD & PREMIUM ACCOUNTS IN FIRST POST

[SLAM!]

I have quite a few thoughts about this weekend's results and what it could mean for many of the films.

 

I wanna get the elephant in the room out of the way first; Star Wars (unsurprisingly to me) did north of two hundred million, and I'm happy about that. Two hundred million is good for any film. It's something the filmmakers should be happy with, and I would argue that they deserve the success they've received even if the success was guaranteed either way.

 

Moving on to Ferdinand... yeesh. For a film with a $111 million budget, a $13 million OW isn't good at all. I think the biggest reason for this failure is the bevy of poor marketing decisions that made the already-proven Coco and Wonder seem like better-quality family choices right off the bat. It's a shame because, from what I've heard, Ferdinand is not an Emoji Movie type of egregious wrong at all, but this film will certainly gross less than that wolf in celluloid's clothing. Unfortunately, Ferdinand will likely fall below Coco (at least) on the weekend charts pretty soon.

 

Speaking of chart movement: two weeks ago, I predicted that Wonder would eventually overtake Justice League on the weekend chart by Star Wars weekend, and I'm really happy to see that my prediction was correct. I am very happy that a small film of excellent quality has overtaken a big film of poor quality.

 

I was disappointed by the big drop The Disaster Artist received. That was always going to be a film with limited appeal outside of film enthusiasts and die-hard fans of 'Seth Rogen comedies' that thought the film would be that type of a comedy. In fact, I think the disappointment some of those fans of films like Neighbors and This Is The End felt might be skewering the word of mouth a bit. Theaters might cut the film out to make way for the many forthcoming comedies of the holiday season and keep a level of adequate film variety.

 

I surmise that Daddy's Home 2 is able to keep as many theaters as it did because it does have christmas-y overtones in it. It might lose more theaters, but be on the lookout for a good hold next weekend.

 

I'm personally disappointed that The Star was booted out of the top ten. I mean, a smaller film like that is gonna drop pretty hard if it all of a sudden loses 1,000+ theaters. My prayer is that enough theaters choose keep it just one more week so that it can capitalize on the holiday and double its budget.

 

And I think Lady Bird has a better chance at keeping theaters than Three Billboards. They've both been doing fine in their releases, but Three Billboards is undeniably weaker. To be honest, I think theaters across the country will be replacing both films with two expanding prestige films: The Shape of Water and Darkest Hour. The Shape of Water should absolutely be a bit of a commodity nabbing the title of 'the most-nominated film at the Golden Globes'.

 

Lastly, I want to commemorate how strong of a hold I, Tonya had, at least as a film that went from 4 theaters to 5.

[JonathanLB]

Wow I wish you guys knew what my theater is usually like. Holy fuck! The OVERFLOW lot is full! I have never seen this happen. Not even on TFA’s opening weekend. I had to drive around forever - and this is the burbs - to find one open spot. I’ve never seen anything like this. I was here yesterday at the same time and it was nowhere near as busy.

 

I know more friends and family seeing the movie today than yesterday too. Anecdotal of course but wow it’s busy!

[baumer]

3 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

Wow I wish you guys knew what my theater is usually like. Holy fuck! The OVERFLOW lot is full! I have never seen this happen. Not even on TFA’s opening weekend. I had to drive around forever - and this is the burbs - to find one open spot. I’ve never seen anything like this. I was here yesterday at the same time and it was nowhere near as busy.

 

I know more friends and family seeing the movie today than yesterday too. Anecdotal of course but wow it’s busy!

 

Yep, I think this is going to have a very soft drop today.  My 10AM show was 90% full.  

[FlashMaster659]

Got Sunday numbers for us @Rth Ragnarok?

[baumer]

I need to get this off my chest.

 

I know those of you who are saying that the gross for TLJ is fine, or that the studio should be happy with it or that the gross is acceptable, are you guys really that forgetful?  Or have you lost all perspective because one film in the history of movies grossed more?  Do you have any idea how big of a gross 220 million is the an opening weekend?  There have been only three films before this one to hit 200 million OW.

 

Tent poles like Justice League were out grossed by TLJ in three days.

 

A 220 million weekend is insane and just because SW did it 2 years ago, this is not "okay" or "acceptable" or "not bad at all".  This is ridiculously awesome.  It's a sequel that has basically held on to all but 10% of it's audience from one film to the ext and this is coming off a record grossing film.  It's fucking crazy how well this one did and it looks like the wom is going to carry it over 750 and it will have a shot at 800.  To drop 15-17% (if it hits around 800) off a record breaking first film, is pretty unprecedented.  

 

Think about this before you say it's just okay. 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Got Sunday numbers for us @Rth Ragnarok?

 

It's 4 pm on the west coast.  He won't have anything for us for a long time.....if he chooses to update us it won't be until about 5 or 6 hours from now.

[Blankments]

220M makes me think 720M is the floor. 3.46x beats Avatar and I think that's pretty likely too. 800M will be a bit more of challenge; don't see the hardcore rewatches going as much as it did for TFA. Still hoping it can take the #2 DOM spot though.

[Maxmoser3]

3 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

Is anyone claiming it is?

No Im just ready for the people to start saying “Star Wars” what went wrong threads. Or Star Wars: The Flop Jedi. But honestly it’s a really good debut when you consider its the 2nd best debut of all time! And it could be the 2nd grossing film of all time! 

 

[Random2]

 

I was so close!

[Killimano3]

Damn this is going to outgross ESB adjusted isn't it?

[DeeCee]

Down 23% in Australia from TFA

 

 

[vc2002]

$220m ????

 

 

[Rman823]

Just got out and I loved the movie. Need to see it again but it’s in my top 3 of the series. I understand why some long time fans would have a problem with it but as a newer fan (watched the series for the first time after seeing TFA in theaters) I didn’t mind the creative choices. 

[FlashMaster659]

IMO, Sunday will be $52M-$54M.

[WrathOfHan]

Forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 102M (322M Total)

Dec 22: 81M (113.7M weekdays, 516.7M Total)

Dec 29: 82M (88M weekdays, 686.7M Total)

Jan 5: 75M (16.6M weekdays, 778.3M Total)

Jan 12: 25M (11.9M weekdays, 815.2M Total)

Jan 19: 12M (4.1M weekdays, 831.3M Total)

Jan 26: 6.5M (2.2M weekdays, 840M Total)

Feb 2: 3.6M (1.6M weekdays, 845.2M Total)

Feb 9: 2M (900k weekdays, 848.1M Total)

Feb 16: 1M (500k weekdays, 849.6M Total)

 

Final Total: 853M (3.88x)

 

This multi is about .1x higher than TFA's, but given the structure of this holiday season, it's not impossible.

 

Edited December 18, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[JB33]

18 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 102M (322M Total)

Dec 22: 81M (113.7M weekdays, 516.7M Total)

Dec 29: 82M (88M weekdays, 686.7M Total)

Jan 5: 75M (16.6M weekdays, 778.3M Total)

Jan 12: 25M (11.9M weekdays, 815.2M Total)

Jan 19: 12M (4.1M weekdays, 831.3M Total)

Jan 26: 6.5M (2.2M weekdays, 840M Total)

Feb 2: 3.6M (1.6M weekdays, 845.2M Total)

Feb 9: 2M (900k weekdays, 848.1M Total)

Feb 16: 1M (500k weekdays, 849.6M Total)

 

Final Total: 853M (3.88x)

 

This multi is about .1x higher than TFA's, but given the structure of this holiday season, it's not impossible.

 

This would be amazing!

[a2k]

Just to refresh memories (though I don't think anyone has forgotten ), the 1st 17 days/3 weekends of SW7, from Christmas to New Years:

 

Spoiler

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
2015/12/18	1	$119,119,282		4,134	$28,815	$119,119,282	1
2015/12/19	1	$68,294,204	-43%	4,134	$16,520	$187,413,486	2
2015/12/20	1	$60,553,189	-11%	4,134	$14,648	$247,966,675	3
2015/12/21	1	$40,109,742	-34%	4,134	$9,702	$288,076,417	4
2015/12/22	1	$37,361,729	-7%	4,134	$9,038	$325,438,146	5
2015/12/23	1	$38,022,183	+2%	4,134	$9,197	$363,460,329	6
2015/12/24	1	$27,395,725	-28%	4,134	$6,627	$390,856,054	7
2015/12/25	1	$49,325,663	+80%	4,134	$11,932	$440,181,717	8
2015/12/26	1	$56,731,532	+15%	4,134	$13,723	$496,913,249	9
2015/12/27	1	$43,145,665	-24%	4,134	$10,437	$540,058,914	10
2015/12/28	1	$31,362,029	-27%	4,134	$7,586	$571,420,943	11
2015/12/29	1	$29,528,583	-6%	4,134	$7,143	$600,949,526	12
2015/12/30	1	$28,085,057	-5%	4,134	$6,794	$629,034,583	13
2015/12/31	1	$22,932,686	-18%	4,134	$5,547	$651,967,269	14
2016/01/01	1	$34,394,152	+50%	4,134	$8,320	$686,361,421	15
2016/01/02	1	$34,368,250	n/c	4,134	$8,314	$720,729,671	16
2016/01/03	1	$21,479,271	-38%	4,134	$5,196	$742,208,942	17

 

2015/12/18	1	$247,966,675		4,134	$59,982	$247,966,675	1
2015/12/25	1	$149,202,860	-40%	4,134	$36,092	$540,058,914	2
2016/01/01	1	$90,241,673	-40%	4,134	$21,829	$742,208,942	3

 

[Ezen Baklattan]

28 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Just to refresh memories (though I don't think anyone has forgotten ), the 1st 17 days/3 weekends of SW7, from Christmas to New Years:

 

  Hide contents

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
2015/12/18	1	$119,119,282		4,134	$28,815	$119,119,282	1
2015/12/19	1	$68,294,204	-43%	4,134	$16,520	$187,413,486	2
2015/12/20	1	$60,553,189	-11%	4,134	$14,648	$247,966,675	3
2015/12/21	1	$40,109,742	-34%	4,134	$9,702	$288,076,417	4
2015/12/22	1	$37,361,729	-7%	4,134	$9,038	$325,438,146	5
2015/12/23	1	$38,022,183	+2%	4,134	$9,197	$363,460,329	6
2015/12/24	1	$27,395,725	-28%	4,134	$6,627	$390,856,054	7
2015/12/25	1	$49,325,663	+80%	4,134	$11,932	$440,181,717	8
2015/12/26	1	$56,731,532	+15%	4,134	$13,723	$496,913,249	9
2015/12/27	1	$43,145,665	-24%	4,134	$10,437	$540,058,914	10
2015/12/28	1	$31,362,029	-27%	4,134	$7,586	$571,420,943	11
2015/12/29	1	$29,528,583	-6%	4,134	$7,143	$600,949,526	12
2015/12/30	1	$28,085,057	-5%	4,134	$6,794	$629,034,583	13
2015/12/31	1	$22,932,686	-18%	4,134	$5,547	$651,967,269	14
2016/01/01	1	$34,394,152	+50%	4,134	$8,320	$686,361,421	15
2016/01/02	1	$34,368,250	n/c	4,134	$8,314	$720,729,671	16
2016/01/03	1	$21,479,271	-38%	4,134	$5,196	$742,208,942	17

 

2015/12/18	1	$247,966,675		4,134	$59,982	$247,966,675	1
2015/12/25	1	$149,202,860	-40%	4,134	$36,092	$540,058,914	2
2016/01/01	1	$90,241,673	-40%	4,134	$21,829	$742,208,942	3

 

$600m in 12-days, that's just a straight-up dream run.

[spazz91]

Will be interesting to see if this can hit $652 in December to top TFA's Dec gross.

[narniadis]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 102M (322M Total)

Dec 22: 81M (113.7M weekdays, 516.7M Total)

Dec 29: 82M (88M weekdays, 686.7M Total)

Jan 5: 75M (16.6M weekdays, 778.3M Total)

Jan 12: 25M (11.9M weekdays, 815.2M Total)

Jan 19: 12M (4.1M weekdays, 831.3M Total)

Jan 26: 6.5M (2.2M weekdays, 840M Total)

Feb 2: 3.6M (1.6M weekdays, 845.2M Total)

Feb 9: 2M (900k weekdays, 848.1M Total)

Feb 16: 1M (500k weekdays, 849.6M Total)

 

Final Total: 853M (3.88x)

 

This multi is about .1x higher than TFA's, but given the structure of this holiday season, it's not impossible.

 

Your January 5th and 12th weekend are off, particularly since the 12th is a 4day weekend.