THE LAST JEDI (and Ferdinand) WEEKEND THREAD | JEDI 220m, FERDINAND 13.3m, COCO 10m (official estimates) | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SALE ON GOLD & PREMIUM ACCOUNTS IN FIRST POST

[filmnerdjamie]

The Disaster Artist was always going to appeal strictly to the Coasts and Industry audiences. Knew the moment it expanded to 1000+ screens, it was fucked. How it got this praised is beyond me.

[filmlover]

Just now, filmnerdjamie said:

The Disaster Artist was always going to appeal strictly to the Coasts and Industry audiences. Knew the moment it expanded to 1000+ screens, it was fucked. How it got this praised is beyond me.

It's a film about the making of the worst movie of all time. How did that not scream "niche appeal?" It's done fine.

[Talkie]

18 minutes ago, George Parr said:

I don't think that there really is such a thing as a coherent group of online Star Wars fanatics. The fanbase is way too large, even the obviously much smaller hardcore base, for it to be clearly defined group.

 

Even when just talking about general groups, which doesn't take individual opinions into account, you have the purists ("everything but the OT sucks!"), the legacy fans ("the old EU was soo much better than this new stuff!"), the ones who hate the prequels but like the new ones ("practical effects, not this CGI stuff!"), and the ones who like all movies to varying degrees. None of them are clearly dominating the fanbase, at least not when it comes to the noise they make online.

I was referring to the people who wanted everything to go according to their own expectations or theories. There seem to be a sizable number of fans who are enraged because they are convinced that they know, absolutely, how Luke would behave in any situation and he didn't act that way in TLJ. And then there are others who came up with wild theories about certain things that proved not to be true, which set them off. I won't even get into the strange shippers and their fantasies.

 

When so many people passionately believe in their own inner Star Wars narrative, they will never accept the story as it evolves on screen. Someone like myself, who could be considered a casual fan in comparison, views the movie as the continuation of a dynamic creation that will go on for decades. While I disagree with some developments I'm not inclined to try to write the story in advance of each film's release. There is more joy in being open to the possibilities ahead than in trying to force the narrative to conform to our expectations.

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

How often does a mega-blockbuster ever decreased Saturday from true Friday, I assume not very likely?

BVS did 53.9 true Friday 50.6 Sat, though Fri was partial holiday.

but with a better aud score

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

SW is too big with families to decrease on Sat, especially this time of year.

Edited December 16, 2017 by Reyhawk

[filmlover]

Saturday should at least stay flat with Friday proper ($60M). FWIW it's selling a ton around me already.

[FlashMaster659]

IMO, Saturday will be $65.1M-$66.2M. Would be roughly the same true Friday to Saturday increase as TFA and RO.

Edited December 16, 2017 by FlashMaster659

[ThomasNicole]

20 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

This is good, and Coco will probably go up with Sunday's hold too.

I think Coco will have a great hold next weekend, like 25-30%

 

Moana drop 40% same week last year, but it was against Sing debut

Coco will face Jumanji, which is set to be a success, but it's not a direct competition like another animation

[a2k]

pro.BO going lower than most.

 

Quote

...Initial word of mouth may not be as universally strong as Awakens at this stage due to a sect of fans that have created an online uproar over certain plot developments in the film — something that has caused the film’s Flixster audience score to sit at a shockingly low 56 percent his morning. Still, Disney reports the film earned a strong “A” CinemaScore, while IMDb users rate the pic at 8.0 currently — virtually identical to Awakens‘ 8.1 score. The significant difference between these scores and the Flixster outlier gives some credence to rumors that the Flixster score has been intentionally manipulated by grassroots fan efforts to send disappointed viewers to the polls in a concentrated effort to lower the film’s score on the popular Rotten Tomatoes site — where the film has an excellent 93 percent score from critics.

 

Whatever the truth is, word of mouth for this film will be essential to how the weekend and weeks ahead play out. As of this morning, the backlash appears contained and hasn’t negatively weekend projections in a major way, but the first true test will be Saturday and Sunday business. Historically, even disappointed fans have still shown up for repeat viewings in this franchise, but it’s a unique situation that introduces an unexpected variable in projections.

 

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	$210,000,000	—	4,232	—	$49,622	$210,000,000	1	Disney
2	Ferdinand	$12,425,000	—	3,621	—	$3,431	$12,425,000	1	Fox
3	Coco	$10,000,000	-46%	3,155	-593	$3,170	$150,785,896	4	Disney
4	Wonder (2017)	$5,100,000	-40%	3,047	-472	$1,674	$108,956,738	5	Lionsgate
5	Justice League	$4,000,000	-59%	2,702	-806	$1,480	$219,286,347	5	Warner Bros.
6	Daddy’s Home 2	$3,500,000	-41%	2,493	-770	$1,404	$96,279,982	6	Paramount
7	Thor: Ragnarok	$3,000,000	-52%	1,895	-1152	$1,583	$306,394,120	7	Disney
8	The Disaster Artist	$2,500,000	-61%	1,010	170	$2,475	$12,795,130	3	New Line / A24
9	Murder on the Orient Express (2017)	$2,350,000	-54%	1,923	-1166	$1,222	$97,132,742	6	Fox
10	The Star	$2,100,000	-43%	1,936	-1040	$1,085	$35,700,220	5	Sony / Columbia

 

EDIT:

 

SW7 had those costly preview tickets which may have skewed the OD ratio in favor of previews as opposed to true Friday. I don't know how much of the 57m previews was due to the premium tickets though.

Edited December 16, 2017 by a2knet

[Fancyarcher]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

I think Coco will have a great hold next weekend, like 25-30%

 

Moana drop 40% same week last year, but it was against Sing debut

Coco will face Jumanji, which is set to be a success, but it's not a direct competition like another animation

Jumanji should only have a slight effect. I expect Coco to drop around 35% or so, on it's way to a 220m+ final gross. 

[Dementeleus]

15 minutes ago, Talkie said:

There is more joy in being open to the possibilities ahead than in trying to force the narrative to conform to our expectations.

 

 

 

I know I harp on this all the time, but I've found that my first-viewing experiences have greatly improved the more I stay away from fan-theory discussion and speculation -- for any movie or franchise. There's entertainment value in those discussions, to be sure, but it's to the detriment of expectations when it comes to the actual movies.

[Ezen Baklattan]

I’m disappointed, but not surprised by the drop for Disaster Artist - Star Wars probably ate into its audience big time. But good news for A24 - Lady Bird will beat Moonlight well before Christmas, and it could end up with 50m+.

 

 

[Wonder Midget]

3 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

I heard someone call TLJ anti-male vegan propaganda online...

 

It’s anti-male now to have women in movies who aren’t cooking and cleaning and just looking pretty?! It’s fine to criticize a movie but where in gods name are they getting anti-male out of the thing from lol. There are some nutjobs out there I swear.

It's good to see that Roy Moore is posting on the internet now that he has extra free time.

[Barnack]

10 hours ago, The Futurist said:

Unless it s an A+ or a D, Cinemascores mean nothing.

Come on guys, we ve been trhough more than I can count.

Still a difference between an A/A- and a D+ or B-.

 

Huge drop between A+ and A it is true, no difference between A and A- also true, once you are in the C+ and less it does not matter it also true all lumped into the audience will not recommand others to pay for it category:

 

[a2k]

MOTOE will be 7.9 away from 105 after a 2.35 weekend.

DH2 will be 8.7 away from 105 after a 3.5 weekend.

(using Pro.BO projections)

 

At least DH2 should cross 105. But solid for both the films really.

(Even at ~108 DH2 is looking at a 30% drop from DH1. So K2's 21% drop looks good in comparison. And BM2 will be down 35-40% from BM1).

Edited December 16, 2017 by a2knet

[JonathanLB]

10 minutes ago, a2knet said:

pro.BO going lower than most.

 

 

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	$210,000,000	—	4,232	—	$49,622	$210,000,000	1	Disney
2	Ferdinand	$12,425,000	—	3,621	—	$3,431	$12,425,000	1	Fox
3	Coco	$10,000,000	-46%	3,155	-593	$3,170	$150,785,896	4	Disney
4	Wonder (2017)	$5,100,000	-40%	3,047	-472	$1,674	$108,956,738	5	Lionsgate
5	Justice League	$4,000,000	-59%	2,702	-806	$1,480	$219,286,347	5	Warner Bros.
6	Daddy’s Home 2	$3,500,000	-41%	2,493	-770	$1,404	$96,279,982	6	Paramount
7	Thor: Ragnarok	$3,000,000	-52%	1,895	-1152	$1,583	$306,394,120	7	Disney
8	The Disaster Artist	$2,500,000	-61%	1,010	170	$2,475	$12,795,130	3	New Line / A24
9	Murder on the Orient Express (2017)	$2,350,000	-54%	1,923	-1166	$1,222	$97,132,742	6	Fox
10	The Star	$2,100,000	-43%	1,936	-1040	$1,085	$35,700,220	5	Sony / Columbia

 

EDIT:

 

SW7 had those costly preview tickets which may have skewed the OD ratio in favor of previews as opposed to true Friday. I don't know how much of the 57m previews was due to the premium tickets though.

Huh? You mean the tiny tiny handful of theaters (we had ONE in the entire state of Oregon!) that played the marathon? You have this one backwards my friend. TLJ had fan events for $30 and IMAX double features like mine for $40 everywhere. By all means TLJ should have been more inflated on preview night not less. That’s why I initially projected more like a $50M Thursday but with a $55M true Friday. I was surprised my $5M basically got moved Thurs to Fri lol

[AndyK]

10 hours ago, eXtacy said:

 

Its harder to downvote on IMDB. Anyone who creates an account to rate a single movie 1/10 are heavily discounted in their rating system. 

and if they create an account to give a 10/10 rating?

 

Seems they are massaging the score to give a higher rating.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Huh? You mean the tiny tiny handful of theaters (we had ONE in the entire state of Oregon!) that played the marathon? You have this one backwards my friend. TLJ had fan events for $30 and IMAX double features like mine for $40 everywhere. By all means TLJ should have been more inflated on preview night not less. That’s why I initially projected more like a $50M Thursday but with a $55M true Friday. I was surprised my $5M basically got moved Thurs to Fri lol

Yeah I have no idea how much of the 57m was due to the costly tickets. Just was guessing if that was a factor. The preview / true Fri breakdown was surprising to say the least.

[redfirebird2008]

15 minutes ago, a2knet said:

pro.BO going lower than most.

 

 

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	$210,000,000	—	4,232	—	$49,622	$210,000,000	1	Disney
2	Ferdinand	$12,425,000	—	3,621	—	$3,431	$12,425,000	1	Fox
3	Coco	$10,000,000	-46%	3,155	-593	$3,170	$150,785,896	4	Disney
4	Wonder (2017)	$5,100,000	-40%	3,047	-472	$1,674	$108,956,738	5	Lionsgate
5	Justice League	$4,000,000	-59%	2,702	-806	$1,480	$219,286,347	5	Warner Bros.
6	Daddy’s Home 2	$3,500,000	-41%	2,493	-770	$1,404	$96,279,982	6	Paramount
7	Thor: Ragnarok	$3,000,000	-52%	1,895	-1152	$1,583	$306,394,120	7	Disney
8	The Disaster Artist	$2,500,000	-61%	1,010	170	$2,475	$12,795,130	3	New Line / A24
9	Murder on the Orient Express (2017)	$2,350,000	-54%	1,923	-1166	$1,222	$97,132,742	6	Fox
10	The Star	$2,100,000	-43%	1,936	-1040	$1,085	$35,700,220	5	Sony / Columbia

 

EDIT:

 

SW7 had those costly preview tickets which may have skewed the OD ratio in favor of previews as opposed to true Friday. I don't know how much of the 57m previews was due to the premium tickets though.

 

The IMDB comparison is really flawed. Force Awakens was still at 8.7 after a week of voting. Way Back Machine confirms that one. After a day of voting, it was probably even higher than that. It has now faced two years of scrutiny and is at 8.1 rating. Last Jedi is already at 8 and going to keep dropping as more people chime in. I think it will probably finish in the low 7's.

[PNF2187]

22 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think Coco will have a great hold next weekend, like 25-30%

 

Moana drop 40% same week last year, but it was against Sing debut

Coco will face Jumanji, which is set to be a success, but it's not a direct competition like another animation

While not unexpected, Coco is gonna be Disney's leggiest release of 2017 by the end of the weekend.