THE LAST JEDI (and Ferdinand) WEEKEND THREAD | JEDI 220m, FERDINAND 13.3m, COCO 10m (official estimates) | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SALE ON GOLD & PREMIUM ACCOUNTS IN FIRST POST

[Lancelot Gold]

22 minutes ago, Barnack said:

That track record is not that obvious really.

James Gandolfini

Date	Title (click to view)	Studio	Lifetime Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Rank
9/12/14	The Drop	FoxS	$10,724,389	1,192	$4,104,552	809	15
9/18/13	Enough Said	FoxS	$17,550,872	835	$232,800	4	11

 

Robin Williams

Date	Title (click to view)	Studio	Lifetime Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Rank
7/10/15	Boulevard	SM	$126,150	11	$7,000	1	48
12/19/14	Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb	Fox	$113,746,621	3,914	$17,100,520	3,785	13

 

Philip Seymour Hoffman

Date	Title (click to view)	Studio	Lifetime Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Rank
11/20/15	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2	LGF	$281,723,902	4,175	$102,665,981	4,175	3
11/21/14	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1	LGF	$337,135,885	4,151	$121,897,634	4,151	2
7/25/14	A Most Wanted Man	RAtt.	$17,237,855	801	$2,687,227	361	24
5/9/14	God's Pocket	IFC	$169,976	80	$21,482	3	40

 

Heath Ledger

Date	Title (click to view)	Studio	Lifetime Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Rank
12/25/09	The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus	SPC	$7,689,607	607	$415,233	48	11
7/18/08	The Dark Knight	WB	$534,858,444	4,366	$158,411,483	4,366	1

 

 

There is a lot of post-mortem release of loved actor that did nothing, many strait to videos, we remember the big success, we do not remember the smaller movies by definition, a way to look at it would be did the movie perform specially well in market were the actors was a big deal and not particularly well were he was not (like the new market or non domestic market in general), most of the time the actor death is brought as a reason for a movie giant success, the movie was big just everywhere, even in place that it barely made the news that a foreign actor die.

 

Even in the franchise, replaying the same role context, it is hard to see any boost of Robin Williams last big roles in a big movie and he was a specially loved figure:

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Adjusted Gross	Unadjusted Gross	Release
1	Night at the Museum	Fox	$330,781,500	$250,863,268	12/22/06
2	Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian	Fox	$212,165,200	$177,243,721	5/22/09
3	Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb	Fox	$124,227,800	$113,746,621	12/19/14

I'm not saying it's the only factor, just one of many. For example, it helps that the movie is actually popular or even good. Being one of the main stars, instead of supporting character helps too. 

[Plain Old Tele]

It'll be fun if @Rth Ragnarok brings back Star Wars-image number guessing for the holidays. 

[Amrwael22]

I Want that +60M SAT numbers NOOOW 

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Predictions for other winter movies:

 

Jumanji: 145

The Post: 130

Pitch Perfect: 110

Shape of Water: 75

Ferdinand: 60

Downsizing: 55

Lady Bird: 50

Greatest Showman: 45

Three Billboards: 45

Molly's Game: 40

All The Money In The World: 35

CMBYN: 35

Phantom Thread: 30

Father Figures: 25

 

Tons of freaking movies out man.

Jumanji: 200M

The Post: 155M

Pitch Perfect: 115M

Shape of Water: 110M

Greatest Showman: 75M

Ferdinand: 65M

Downsizing: 45M

Lady Bird: 40M

Three Billboards: 33M

Father Figures: 30M

Phantom Thread: 30M

CMBYN: 27M

Money: 25M

Molly's Game: 20M

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, Amrwael22 said:

I Want that +60M SAT numbers NOOOW 

I'm personally hoping for $66M.

[aabattery]

I will declare the film a flop if it does not match TFA's Saturday gross.

[The Panda]

I've seen into the crystal ball,

 

TLJ Saturday will in fact be a big number.  So big that it may even be double digits!

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, JB33 said:

I'm personally hoping for $66M.

I'm hoping for whatever the Math people say I need to get the weekend to $231.77M...since it's a hope, not an actual expectation:)...

 

I will say Friday morning (through noon/1pm) had a little weakness (aka open seats), so Sat (especially) and Sun could go higher than Friday...

[IronJimbo]

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

Avatar will go down...again.

 

Brace yourself, younglings.

 

Nice effort paddiwon but let me introduce you to advanced levels of meme creation.

 

 

Let's be honest though guys and gals, Star Wars is no longer a threat. Superhero movies are oversaturated and is no longer a threat.  The only threat to Jim is Jim. Also let me remind you this is a USA&Canada thread so let's keep talking about Avatar to a minimum! The king of the world doesn't deal with provinces.

 

Also what's this about me making plans to murder an Avatar cast member, that's a bit spicy I thought we would be more sensitive towards Carrie's death here! Besides Avatar won't need underhanded tactics.

 

Edited December 16, 2017 by IronJimbo

[JonathanLB]

4 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I'm personally hoping for $66M.

Me too. That’s the highest realistic number I can imagine

 

Well you guys know me, up to my usual craziness. I gotta grab some food then head to the theater for the 4th time seeing TLJ, have to get my collectible IMAX ticket  

Edited December 16, 2017 by JonathanLB

[Biggestgeekever]

8 minutes ago, ReyReyBattery said:

I will declare the film a flop if it does not match TFA's Saturday gross.

Rian Johnson has KILLED Star Wars if this doesn't hit $68M today. 

[Fullbuster]

8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

 

Also what's this about me making plans to murder an Avatar cast member, that's a bit spicy I thought we would be more sensitive towards Carrie's death here! Besides Avatar won't need underhanded tactics.

 

 

 

It's Robertman, he's not exactly the sensitive kind   But hey we need some dark humor sometimes ^^

 

[aabattery]

Just now, Biggestgeekever said:

Rian Johnson has KILLED Star Wars if this doesn't hit $68M today. 

 

This Saturday number is the ONLY thing stopping my childhood from DYING.

[IronJimbo]

13 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Me too. That’s the highest realistic number I can imagine

 

Well you guys know me, up to my usual craziness. I gotta grab some food then head to the theater for the 4th time seeing TLJ, have to get my collectible IMAX ticket  

Got to respect the crazy, I've seen something in cinema over 10 times before over 4 months.

[somebody85]

Wow, giant opening day. Already major backlash against the audience score on RT articles. Reddit/4chan are going to lose this one quick.

[mredman]

1 hour ago, jjack339 said:

maybe, but I think TLJ is a different case than the norm. With every other movie it is the fanboys running online and inflating user reviews and then the normies getting around to watch it and they don't like it as much as the fanboys.

 

With TLJ it is the fanboys (and trolls) who are negative on it, so in this case it is possible the normies will actually "correct" the score over time that was skewed by jilted nerd rages. 

pissing of the (fanboys) thats basically the fanbase and thats their core demographic.

[YM!]

Starting to wonder if Pitch Perfect 3 can miss $100M DOM

[AniNate]

33 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

There are so many Woody Allen movies that everyone thinks will be Oscar contenders and flop spectacularly. Remember Irrational Man? Magic in the Moonlight? Cafe Society (this one was doing ok for the first few weeks at least)? Moral of the story: Don't put Selena Gomez in your predictions next year!

Midnight in Paris and Blue Jasmine made him a name again. But at this point that goodwill has largely faded.

[CoolioD1]

28 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I'm personally hoping for $66M.

[Ethan Hunt]

Greatest Showman is getting way underpredicted here. hype all over the place