Tuesday#s TLJ 20.25M

[ThomasNicole]

Expect Coco to jump 45-55% today to compensate the big drop yesterday

 

Probably will have better drops and jumps than Moana starting tomorrow, considering Coco has no Sing to compete

[Johnny Tran]

Again it's not just bots IMO.  I've done a lot of reading everywhere about this film because I actually quite enjoyed it but it seems many others do not share that enthusiasm.  

 

These numbers aren't "bad" any way you look at it. It just shows that this isn't anywhere close to TFA WOM.  Also,  I wouldn't say that WOM on this is lukewarm,  sorry for the pun.  We'll see in coming weeks but this could also be a strike against TFA because many felt on re-watch that TFA wasn't bringing anything new to the table.  

 

I could see Episode IX performing less than this.  TFA was Star Wars (and film in general) at it's peak. 

[redfirebird2008]

Some data points compared to Rogue One...

 

Friday was 47% ahead of Rogue One. Saturday was 38% ahead of Rogue One. Sunday was 36% ahead of Rogue One. Monday was 22.5% ahead of Rogue One. Tuesday is about 16% ahead of Rogue One. Now Rogue One made $341.92 million after the first Tuesday. Here are the domestic totals depending on how much it stays ahead of Rogue One:

 

17% ahead = $662m total

20% ahead = $672m total

25% ahead = $689m total

30% ahead = $706m total

36% ahead = $727m total

41% ahead = $744m total

46% ahead = $761m total (this beats Avatar total)

51% ahead = $778m

 

Not sure where it's headed, but that Avatar goal does look pretty tough now. Should be interesting to watch regardless.

 

[a2k]

gitesh and the-numbers.com going with 20.3 estimate ala Asgard1

 

 

		Movie	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi	$20,300,000	-6%	4,232	$261,865,957	5

Edited December 20, 2017 by a2knet

[Wonder Midget]

3 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Personally I don’t think they can sell anything as exciting to audiences as the ROTJ conclusion or getting to see Anakin turn into Vader. Everyone assumes the 3rd movie always increases from 2nd one, but not sure it will happen this time. 

 

Not that it matters. I would think Episode 9 still goes over 

That's a big problem for IX. I think TLJ was good as a standalone movie, but there's no hook that makes the next one an absolute must see. Unless JJ decides to resurrect Vader and use it extensively in promotion or something similar, I don't see the next one outperforming 8.

[a2k]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

Some data points compared to Rogue One...

 

Friday was 47% ahead of Rogue One. Saturday was 38% ahead of Rogue One. Sunday was 36% ahead of Rogue One. Monday was 22.5% ahead of Rogue One. Tuesday is about 16% ahead of Rogue One. Now Rogue One made $341.92 million after the first Tuesday. Here are the domestic totals depending on how much it stays ahead of Rogue One:

 

17% ahead = $662m total

20% ahead = $672m total

25% ahead = $689m total

30% ahead = $706m total

36% ahead = $727m total

41% ahead = $744m total

46% ahead = $761m total (this beats Avatar total)

51% ahead = $778m

 

Not sure where it's headed, but that Avatar goal does look pretty tough now. Should be interesting to watch regardless.

 

That's cool.

I think 30%-36%-41% for 706-727-744 is a reasonable low-real-high range.

[Deep Wang]

6 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Again it's not just bots IMO.  I've done a lot of reading everywhere about this film because I actually quite enjoyed it but it seems many others do not share that enthusiasm.  

 

These numbers aren't "bad" any way you look at it. It just shows that this isn't anywhere close to TFA WOM.  Also,  I wouldn't say that WOM on this is lukewarm,  sorry for the pun.  We'll see in coming weeks but this could also be a strike against TFA because many felt on re-watch that TFA wasn't bringing anything new to the table.  

 

I could see Episode IX performing less than this.  TFA was Star Wars (and film in general) at it's peak. 

 

Obviously there are people that don't like it.  The problem I have with the audience score, was that, didn't it drop below 60% on Friday?  How often does the score drop that hard, and that fast, in the middle of opening day!!

 

Add in the bogus Star Wars reviews popping up on other movies, and it's clear that while there are people that don't like it, it got a more than a little help dropping the score down as much as possible.

[AndyChrono]

1 hour ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

I'm pretty new here, but I just wanted to chime in since my work background is in polling and statistics.

 

I'm just laughing at the idea that a movie with a 93% RT score and a an (A) CinemaScore is somehow having bad word of mouth. It's not. Like most movies plagued by fandom, these issues are occurring within a small percentage of people who post on the internet. In my line of work we encounter the same issues when we see people post about internet opt-in polls or form surveys. We see people use bad data to justify their opinions. Don't do that. Just use the ACTUAL data.

 

If the movie finishes with a bad multiplier, great, that's a data point you can use, but now? It's way too early and the only data points that are actually scientifically viable point to people widely enjoying this film.

 

All statistical, scientific measurements of audience response to this movie show it as being well-received. 

 

 

I only have a layman's understanding of stats, but IIRC even a perfectly conducted scientific poll has margins of error, confidence intervals, etc.

 

For instance, Cinemascore themselves estimate their margin of error at 6%. I don't know how that translates on their A to F scale, but it's possible that the "true value" is actually an A- (or even B+?) in the margin of error. If that happens to be the case, it could indicate poor WOM even if the Cinemascore shows an A. The much maligned prequels for instance, all had A- Cinemascores.

 

I couldn't find info on what Cinemascore uses as a confidence interval, but if they use 95% CI, then roughly 1 in 20 movies will have Cinemascores that miss completely and fall outside the margin of error. That's a pretty low chance, but not impossibly low to the point where we can just rule it out. With the number of movies released each year, there will be a handful or so of Cinemascores that just whiff.

[XO21]

Again with this discussion....pick a calendar

[CenterMeOnSam]

5 minutes ago, AndyChrono said:

I only have a layman's understanding of stats, but IIRC even a perfectly conducted scientific poll has margins of error, confidence intervals, etc.

 

For instance, Cinemascore themselves estimate their margin of error at 6%. I don't know how that translates on their A to F scale, but it's possible that the "true value" is actually an A- (or even B+?) in the margin of error. If that happens to be the case, it could indicate poor WOM even if the Cinemascore shows an A. The much maligned prequels for instance, all had A- Cinemascores.

 

I couldn't find info on what Cinemascore uses as a confidence interval, but if they use 95% CI, then roughly 1 in 20 movies will have Cinemascores that miss completely and fall outside the margin of error. That's a pretty low chance, but not impossibly low to the point where we can just rule it out. With the number of movies released each year, there will be a handful or so of Cinemascores that just whiff.

 

Yes, but the margin of error goes both ways. The likelihood of it being an A- is equal to the likelihood of it being an A+

 

And you should absolutely not rule out an issue with a scientific exit poll; they exist and can be quite common.

 

But it is one of the only relevant metric we have that is of scientific relevance to the conversation.

[Captain Craig]

5 hours ago, Christmas baumer said:

I don't get that number at all.  Cheap Tuesday is full swing and with people still in work and school, you'd think that would give the film at least a bit of a bump on Tuesday.  This is a 6% drop.  I'm confused by this.

Same here. Even understanding that around 70% of K-12 schools are still in session makes this drop on Discount Tuesday seem very, very off. 

Our county is out of school but the 5 or so adjacent and surrounding counties aren't out till Wed or even Thursday. 

 

Still, where are the "normal" crowds that would bump Discount Tuesdays at then? Shopping? 

I don't buy the "it's a bad film" mantra at all. My real life experience has been folks grading it from B+ to A so word of mouth as I've heard it is good. 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Captain Craig said:

Same here. Even understanding that around 70% of K-12 schools are still in session makes this drop on Discount Tuesday seem very, very off. 

Our county is out of school but the 5 or so adjacent and surrounding counties aren't out till Wed or even Thursday. 

 

Still, where are the "normal" crowds that would bump Discount Tuesdays at then? Shopping? 

I don't buy the "it's a bad film" mantra at all. My real life experience has been folks grading it from B+ to A so word of mouth as I've heard it is good. 

 

And the Tuesday number is good. It's just not out of this world amazing. I don't think WOM is out of this world amazing either.

[KeithF1138]

19 minutes ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

 

Obviously there are people that don't like it.  The problem I have with the audience score, was that, didn't it drop below 60% on Friday?  How often does the score drop that hard, and that fast, in the middle of opening day!!

 

Add in the bogus Star Wars reviews popping up on other movies, and it's clear that while there are people that don't like it, it got a more than a little help dropping the score down as much as possible.

Over the weekend CNN had a report on about the RT audience score controversy. They had someone at a theater and they were asking people as they left and they said they couldnt find anyone who didnt like the movie. That is my experience as well. My family and extended family all varied from liked to loved. None negative. The most negative comments from my middle son who really didnt like Holdo and how Poe wasnt told things.  Still he liked TLJ and cant wait to see it again when my sister gets in town. Have met no one who would give it a score that RT would take as negative.

[Chewy]

3 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Personally I don’t think they can sell anything as exciting to audiences as the ROTJ conclusion or getting to see Anakin turn into Vader. Everyone assumes the 3rd movie always increases from 2nd one, but not sure it will happen this time. 

 

Not that it matters. I would think Episode 9 still goes over $600m domestic even in worst case scenario. 

 

Bigger problem IMO is that ROTJ and ROTS both promised finality whereas we know they're doing yearly Star Wars for the foreseeable future. Ep9 won't increase.

[Lordmandeep]

35 minutes ago, Wonder Midget said:

That's a big problem for IX. I think TLJ was good as a standalone movie, but there's no hook that makes the next one an absolute must see. Unless JJ decides to resurrect Vader and use it extensively in promotion or something similar, I don't see the next one outperforming 8.

 

 

What? Ren is not going to amp up audiences hype with his encounter with Rey?

 

I wonder why... 

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Chewy said:

 

Bigger problem IMO is that ROTJ and ROTS both promised finality whereas we know they're doing yearly Star Wars for the foreseeable future. Ep9 won't increase.

That is a valid point I think, there is no notion of being a last movie that make it an event that will be going on here.

 

Maybe Avengers part 2 if a lot of the cast get officially out will have more of that.

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, Chewy said:

 

Bigger problem IMO is that ROTJ and ROTS both promised finality whereas we know they're doing yearly Star Wars for the foreseeable future. Ep9 won't increase.

 

True. I didn't even bother with Episodes 1 and 2, but the Vader marketing and the fact it was "the last one" got me to show up on opening day for Revenge of the Sith.

[somebody85]

WOM doesn't seem to be as good as TFA or RO. Expect Disney/Lucasfilms to play it even safer with 9 with tons of fan service.

Weird my Dolby showings were packed. Like todays at 3:30 was packed last night and I couldn't even get into the 7 PM one because it was sold out.

[somebody85]

11 minutes ago, KeithF1138 said:

Over the weekend CNN had a report on about the RT audience score controversy. They had someone at a theater and they were asking people as they left and they said they couldnt find anyone who didnt like the movie. That is my experience as well. My family and extended family all varied from liked to loved. None negative. The most negative comments from my middle son who really didnt like Holdo and how Poe wasnt told things.  Still he liked TLJ and cant wait to see it again when my sister gets in town. Have met no one who would give it a score that RT would take as negative.

I've seen it with two packed audiences who seemed to enjoy it enough and there was no applause at the end of either.

[The Panda]

57 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Keep in mind Paddington 2 has only been released in a handful of countries, I expect the score will go down a little when it hits the US. 

 

Speaking of Paddington 2, I wonder what WB's expectations are for it, I imagine if it can match the first film's OW then they'll be happy

But will Paddington 2 have a ROTTEN audience score, like TLJ?