Wednesday #s: TLJ 16.9M, Jumanji 7.2M, Greatest Snowman 2.45M

[Poseidon]

According to "The Numbers", TLJ made $16,9m yesterday. Solid.

It's your average big blockbuster sequel after a huge start. 

https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

I get the feeling that because of this weird holiday calendar we won't really know how TLJ is doing until the new year. 

 

More kids in school, the days Xmas Eve and Xmas fall on, etc

 

We can do our best to look at history but there doesn't seem to be a really good example to model off of.

 

 

This. 

[WrathOfHan]

Forecasting the main three:

 

TLJ

 

19.2M (+13%)

 

26.9M (+40%)

29.6M (+10%)

13.3M (-55%)

69.8M Weekend, 68% drop, 367.8M Total

26.6M (+100%) (96.4M 4 day, 56% drop)

 

Jumanji:
 

8.3M (+15%)

 

12.4M (+50%)

13.6M (+10%)

6.5M (-52%)

32.5M Weekend, 48M 5 day

13.7M (+110%) (61.7M 6 day)

 

Showman:

 

2.8M (+15%)

 

4.1M (+45%)

4.7M (+15%)

2.1M (-55%)

10.9M Weekend, 16.1M 5 day

4.4M (+110%) (20.5M 6 day)

 

[a2k]

1. BoxOfficeReport.com‏ @BORReport 4m4 minutes ago

   Star Wars: The Last Jedi grossed an estimated $20.3M internationally on Wednesday. International total is $295.0M, global total is $573.8M. #StarWars #TheLastJedi #BoxOffice @DisneyStudios @StarWars

   0 replies1 retweet0 likes

    

    
2.  

   BoxOfficeReport.com‏ @BORReport 5m5 minutes ago

   Star Wars: The Last Jedi grossed an estimated $16.9M domestically on Wednesday. 6-Day total stands at $278.8M.

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Forecasting the main three:

 

TLJ

 

19.2M (+13%)

 

26.9M (+40%)

29.6M (+10%)

13.3M (-55%)

69.8M Weekend, 68% drop, 367.8M Total

26.6M (+100%) (96.4M 4 day, 56% drop)

 

 

 

Not saying you're wrong, but your TLJ projected drop is brutal, even with Xmas Eve on Sunday...

 

And predicting $6M less than Rogue One for "observed Christmas" (Dec 26th being RO's Monday holiday)...phew, if you're right, this would start to look like a BvS holiday version in legs (the Star Wars fan in me does not want you to be right, no matter what quality the movie is:)...

Edited December 21, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[a2k]

295.0 vs 278.8 : os is 5.8% bigger than dom after 6 days.

not sure about what markets are remaining but if os is 6-8% bigger in the end, can see something like 720 + 780 = 1500 ww

Edited December 21, 2017 by a2knet

[Lordmandeep]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Forecasting the main three:

 

TLJ

 

19.2M (+13%)

 

26.9M (+40%)

29.6M (+10%)

13.3M (-55%)

69.8M Weekend, 68% drop, 367.8M Total

26.6M (+100%) (96.4M 4 day, 56% drop)

 

Jumanji:
 

8.3M (+15%)

 

12.4M (+50%)

13.6M (+10%)

6.5M (-52%)

32.5M Weekend, 48M 5 day

13.7M (+110%) (61.7M 6 day)

 

Showman:

 

2.8M (+15%)

 

4.1M (+45%)

4.7M (+15%)

2.1M (-55%)

10.9M Weekend, 16.1M 5 day

4.4M (+110%) (20.5M 6 day)

 

 

 

Um a drop like that would kill off 700 million 

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Not saying you're wrong, but your TLJ projected drop is brutal, even with Xmas Eve on Sunday...

not in this holiday schedule. if you see 2006, then a 70 3-day this weekend should lead to a 75+ 3-day next weekend (while 4-day should be ~100).

 

EDIT:

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Um a drop like that would kill off 700 million 

 

no, not necessarily in this schedule. amazingly, as long as it hits 65+ 3-day (-70.5% from 220), 700 cannot be ruled out. again 2006 is the only indicator i am using but we don't have much else.

Edited December 21, 2017 by a2knet

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, a2knet said:

not in this holiday schedule. if you see 2006, then a 70 3-day this weekend should lead to a 75+ 3-day next weekend (while 4-day should be ~100).

 

EDIT:

 

no, not necessarily in this schedule. amazingly, as long as it hits 65+ 3-day (-70.5% from 220), 700 cannot be ruled out. again 2006 is the only indicator i am using but we don't have much else.

This. Basically everything should increase next weekend

[JonathanLB]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Not saying you're wrong, but your TLJ projected drop is brutal, even with Xmas Eve on Sunday...

 

And predicting $6M less than Rogue One for "observed Christmas" (Dec 26th being RO's Monday holiday)...phew, if you're right, this would start to look like a BvS holiday version in legs (the Star Wars fan in me does not want you to be right, no matter what quality the movie is:)...

That’s because it doesn’t really make any sense. Why assume such a small Friday bump from already low weekday numbers?! The numbers are lower because few people are out, so it’s just a regular week, yet you’re treating Friday’s bump like everyone has been off all week. 

 

Everything about those numbers is LOL and you’ll see that by the end of Monday.

[a2k]

15 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Forecasting the main three:

 

TLJ

 

19.2M (+13%)

 

26.9M (+40%)

29.6M (+10%)

13.3M (-55%)

69.8M Weekend, 68% drop, 367.8M Total

26.6M (+100%) (96.4M 4 day, 56% drop)

 

 

agree with everything except Monday. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2006-12-25&p=.htm

with 13.3 Sunday thinking 130%+ bump for 30.5+. would be "disappointed" if Monday is sub-30 

Edited December 21, 2017 by a2knet

[redfirebird2008]

25 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

Who knows?  One one hand you have RO, that dropped 58%.  On the other hand you have TFA, that dropped 39% (!) off of a $250M weekend with $57M in preview.  

What you suggest is the RO path, which is certainly possible.  I'm just not sure why I'd pick that over stronger (or even weaker) legs at this point.

 

TFA is a bad comparison. Christmas Day was Friday and Christmas Eve was Thursday. So it had a very nice boost from Christmas Day and then it had two regular weekend days after that with Saturday/Sunday. Rogue One had Christmas Eve on Saturday and that hurts, but it also had Christmas Day on Sunday and that helped it a lot.

 

Last Jedi has only Christmas Eve on Sunday and that very much hurts the 3-day number. Probably will be over 50% drop on that Sunday. It then will receive an awesome boost Monday/Tuesday.

[junkshop36]

24 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

Who knows?  One one hand you have RO, that dropped 58%.  On the other hand you have TFA, that dropped 39% (!) off of a $250M weekend with $57M in preview.  

What you suggest is the RO path, which is certainly possible.  I'm just not sure why I'd pick that over stronger (or even weaker) legs at this point.

 

It’ll be more like RO. Sunday is Christmas Eve, which is not a good box office day. Everything will see significant drops for the day. But then everything recovers the next day on Christmas. 

 

I’d be surprised if it does more than 90 this weekend. 

[hw64]

9 minutes ago, a2knet said:

not in this holiday schedule. if you see 2006, then a 70 3-day this weekend should lead to a 75+ 3-day next weekend (while 4-day should be ~100).

 

EDIT:

 

no, not necessarily in this schedule. amazingly, as long as it hits 65+ 3-day (-70.5% from 220), 700 cannot be ruled out. again 2006 is the only indicator i am using but we don't have much else.

I wouldn't be so sure. Rogue One dropped 22.5% in its third weekend (3-day), while in the next comparable calendar year, 2011, most other holdovers increased by at least 20% on that weekend, and the biggest decline was the 0.5% drop for Ghost Protocol. These high-grossing movies aren't necessarily going to follow historical comparisons.

[YM!]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/12/21/justice-league-wasnt-warner-bros-most-problematic-box-office-bust-of-2017/#d51057b4e9a2

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

That’s because it doesn’t really make any sense. Why assume such a small Friday bump from already low weekday numbers?! The numbers are lower because few people are out, so it’s just a regular week, yet you’re treating Friday’s bump like everyone has been off all week. 

 

Everything about those numbers is LOL and you’ll see that by the end of Monday.

 

It's not just a regular week. Tell that to REAL regular weeks like Spider-Man in 2002 or the Avengers in 2012. The movie dropped only 58% on Monday, which indicates it is not a regular week. 20% of schools out is a lot more than 0%.

 

As far as the Friday increase goes, check out 2006 when the calendar was identical. Plenty of evidence to suggest that the weekdays are boosted enough that it's not a regular week. Movies aren't going to be jumping 100% or something if you are expecting that.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2006-12-22&p=.htm

 

[AndyLL]

16 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Not saying you're wrong, but your TLJ projected drop is brutal, even with Xmas Eve on Sunday...

 

And predicting $6M less than Rogue One for "observed Christmas" (Dec 26th being RO's Monday holiday)...phew, if you're right, this would start to look like a BvS holiday version in legs (the Star Wars fan in me does not want you to be right, no matter what quality the movie is:)...

Xmas eve falling on the 2nd Sunday is going to be a Derby Tournament killer.

 

 

[John Marston]

wow. December 2006 was barren. No wonder Night at the Museum made 250m

[AndyChrono]

6 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

That’s because it doesn’t really make any sense. Why assume such a small Friday bump from already low weekday numbers?! The numbers are lower because few people are out, so it’s just a regular week, yet you’re treating Friday’s bump like everyone has been off all week. 

 

Everything about those numbers is LOL and you’ll see that by the end of Monday.

Because the average Friday bump among holdovers in the Top 10 back in 2006 when we had the same calendar  was ~35%. Rogue One jumped 36% last year. His 40% Friday bump is already being pretty generous - frankly I think we'll see around the historical 35%. Saturday will see a minor 10-15% bump and Sunday is going to crash 50-55%.

[That One Girl]

I tend to have a soft spot for musicals, but damn I really enjoyed The Greatest Showman