4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, ReyReyBattery said:

 

Sharks. Jellyfish. Snakes. Probably spiders.

 

Bunch of nasty shit, for the most part.

Good thing you guys have kiwis as your apex predator to scare away those nasty buggers.

[CJohn]

Shameless plug in because IT BEGINS

 

[aabattery]

5 minutes ago, Sam said:

Excuse me, but Fri number for Father Figures is 1.7M. The stunning number of 2.3M belongs to Downsizing. 

 

 

I hope you can find it in yourself to forgive me.

[Sam]

Good jump for TLJ.

 

But I’m more amazed at Father Figures number. With that, the movie looks to be well on course to get WB the BO money it needs to completely dominate Disney these last days of 2017. 

[Noctis]

7 minutes ago, Sam said:

Excuse me, but Fri number for Father Figures is 1.7M. The stunning number of 2.3M belongs to Downsizing. 

Sam! Never spoke to you one on one, but you are great. <3

 

I may be drunk, but drunk people speak the absolute truth. SO YOU ARE GREAT.

 

 

[grim22]

11 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I tend to agree, but i think with how the holidays are playing out, that TLJ could actually have a higher 2nd set of weekdays than TFA and a higher 3rd week. Though TFA had really awesome late legs, which TLJ will struggle to match.

 

While definitely possible, TFA had ridiculous weekdays to be honest. Every weekday of TFA next week will be higher than the early Friday estimate for TLJ. TFA was a different beast altogether.

[ThomasNicole]

120% jump for Coco? Hell yeah

 

2.9M friday could bring a $ 8M this weekend for Coco, a 19% drop [Moana drop 40% last year]

[grey ghost]

5 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

Some may underestimate Rowling, but from the Western world, she's one of the most principled defenders of freedom of speech. No one denies how much she despises Trump, so her response her was even more amazing: and hopefully, illuminating, for countless people to understand how the West has gone awry about freedom of speech.

I'm not a Potter fan but JK Rowling should be Queen of England or prime minister or something.

 

She has integrity and fuck you money.

 

A dangerous combo.

[Noctis]

I can tell from here...that so many people are going to be misinformed about how numbers work when they see the numbers for this weekend. Can I give you a piece of advice?

 

NO MATTER HOW HARD THE LAST JEDI DROPS THIS WEEEKEND, IT'S GOING TO DROP MINIMALLY NEXT WEEKEND. 

[Alli]

Just now, grey ghost said:

I'm not a Potter fan but JK Rowling should be Queen of England or prime minister or something.

 

She has integrity and fuck you money.

 

A dangerous combo.

Didn't she defend Depp? i don't really care anymore, but she is not perfect

[wildphantom]

28 million!?! The force awakens at last!! 

[JonathanLB]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

While definitely possible, TFA had ridiculous weekdays to be honest. Every weekday of TFA next week will be higher than the early Friday estimate for TLJ. TFA was a different beast altogether.

I know people seem shy to use it, but -59.% Sunday to Monday for Pursuit of Happyness, +67% Friday jump, TLJ had -58% and looks like a larger jump Friday is possible maybe because of a smaller jump Thursday.

 

Look at Pursuit's Friday compared to every day the following week -- basically, whatever TLJ makes Friday, it's likely to meet or exceed every single day from now through next weekend, with the exception of obviously Christmas Eve and NYE.

[Sam]

Just now, Noctis said:

Sam! Never spoke to you one on one, but you are great. <3

 

I may be drunk, but drunk people speak the absolute truth. SO YOU ARE GREAT.

 

 

We can rectify that from now on. 

 

Don’t know if sober Noctis will think the same, but aww, thank you drunk Noctis <3 

 

You’re great too. I enjoy the Harry Potter series, not the biggest HP fan or anything (POA is my favorite btw just so you know) but I like your enthusiasm towards it. 

 

[Sam]

8 minutes ago, ReyReyBattery said:

 

 

I hope you can find it in yourself to forgive me.

I can forgive you but I’m not sure Matt Damon is gonna be cool about such disrespect. 

[Lancelot Gold]

With my original +64% jump for Friday being "close", I'm bumping Saturday up above my original +35% to +38%. Thinking somewhere between 35% and 40%, so I'm splitting the difference. Basing my numbers off JW and TFA. Can't use those for Sunday though. 

 

That 110m 6-day estimate from Deadline really had me thinking pessimistically. 

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

I know people seem shy to use it, but -59.% Sunday to Monday for Pursuit of Happyness, +67% Friday jump, TLJ had -58% and looks like a larger jump Friday is possible maybe because of a smaller jump Thursday.

 

Look at Pursuit's Friday compared to every day the following week -- basically, whatever TLJ makes Friday, it's likely to meet or exceed every single day from now through next weekend, with the exception of obviously Christmas Eve and NYE.

Next wednesday and Thursday should be down a decent amount based on ‘06. Maybe does 20-23m on those days.

[Noctis]

7 minutes ago, Alli said:

Didn't she defend Depp? i don't really care anymore, but she is not perfect

You know me...I'm a staunch feminist. But I'll say this...the accounts of him and Amber are muddy to say the least.  I don't say this because I'm some fan of Depp. In truth, he is such a horridly overrated actor. He was accused of throwing a mobile phone in Amber's face, and if he did that, then he's a ----. But everything I read leading up to the dissolution of the marriage shows how muddled the divorce was.

 

I defend women. I genuinely believe that in general, women are able to bring peace far more than men. But yeah...

[Taruseth]

3 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

I don't think Avatar is anywhere near safe yet personally. You're counting backwards, I'm counting forwards. TLJ needs +$230M from Rogue One, so as it widens that lead I think the math shows it being very close depending on how things shake out. I do think I'd now favor Avatar 70% to 30%, but I can live with $730M. 

 

The weekdays for TLJ will increase next week, and they're likely to be in range of TFA's weekdays, plus TLJ should win every single day comparison the third week, as that's still a holiday week for many people and it wasn't with TFA. It's the calendar mismatch, holidays are weeks 2 and 3 for TLJ, they were 1 and 2 for TFA. I'm a little confused why this concept is just so hard for people to understand? I mean you guys have calendars right? lol. 

 

TFA blew its Christmas load on Friday, and the 26th was just a Saturday, thus you see why TFA had that ridiculously good Saturday to Saturday decline. That is yet to come for TLJ, which will be on Tuesday, and that Tuesday will demolish whatever TFA made on its second Tuesday. It won't even be close. 

 

If TLJ hits $84M this weekend or whatever, it'll probably make another $84M next weekend, and TFA made just about $90M that weekend, with the key difference being TLJ will still have the edge as it'll suffer a Sunday NYE that TFA didn't, so 3rd weekend for TLJ will in all likelihood be more impressive than TFA's 3rd weekend, as Monday will be very substantial still, unlike TFA where that Monday was a piece of shit. 

I honestly really hope you are right.

I don't really no if the 3rd sets of Weekdays will be that strong (New Year's Day aside, as I think that Day has a solid chance at 20+Mio$ hopefully a lot more). What do you think might those weekdays roughly look like all above 10Mio$ or Thursdays and Wednesdays below?

First Weekend: 220 Mio

First Weekdays: 76.6 Mio => 296.6 Mio first week

Second Weekend: 80 Mio => 376.6 Mio

Second Weekdays: 115 Mio => 491.6 Mio (Something like 35 + 35 + 25 + 20, could be higher, could be lower)

Third Weekend: 70 Mio => 561.6 Mio (This is the weekend were I think anything can happen, No new movie releases here, that is an advantage but I don't think that will be enough to compensate for a drop)

Third Weekdays: 45 Mio => 606.6 Mio (Something like 20 + 10 + 8 + 7)

 

Would mean it needs to cross 153.4 more after the first three full weeks.

Rogue one grossed 77 Mio more (so it would need more than double that)

And TFA grossed 166 Mio more but that film came of a higher Weekend (90 Mio $)

 

 

This are just some ideas, and most likely something totally different will happen.

So in other words, let's wait and see 

Really interested in what you think.

 

 

[ThePhasmid]

Fireplace cracking. Stockings hung. Die Hard trilogy and Forrest Gump marathons/re-runs on the TV. Another Star Wars film slaying at the BO. Merry Christmas, y'all.

Edited December 22, 2017 by ThePhasmid

[CJohn]

The reveal has already begun with the 10th place. Expect a fast reveal of the entire top 10. No dragging!