4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[The Panda]

5 hours ago, cannastop said:

Only if you don't use the Force.

[dxmatrixdt]

/

Edited May 6, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Johnny Tran said:

I'd be surprised if TLJ $32M+ today.  

Looking at the MT.com movement so far today, I might say I'd be very surprised if TLJ hit $32M+ without Jumanji having an even better % increase...

 

And I will say my 10pms and later tonight for TLJ are still not selling...just like all last week...

 

[JB33]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

Looking at the MT.com movement so far today, I might say I'd be very surprised if TLJ hit $32M+ without Jumanji having an even better % increase...

 

And I will say my 10pms and later tonight for TLJ are still not selling...just like all last week...

 

So no chance for a 125% jump then huh?

[Porthos]

I was pondering this last night, and I kinda want to make a point about films that open to huge OWs in the current era. 

 

I am starting the think that the larger the OW, the smaller the legs we should expect no matter what the season.  Yes, there are exceptions. A cultural event like TFA, for instance.

 

But take a look at all of the films that opened to 180+ OW:

 

TFA: 3.78x

TLJ: ????

JW: 3.12x

TA: 3.01x

AoU: 2.40x

 

TFA and AoU are extremes on either end.  And strange as it seems now, nay as laughable as it seems now, there were actually some folks disappointed with TFA's run at the time because it didn't hit 4x.  Madness, but there you are.

 

Now I'm loath to go lower than 180 OW because many theaters won't be running at near capacity, so I think the modeling for extreme OW breaks down.  But even if we include the two films that just missed a 175 OW as well as CA:CW we get:

 

CA:CW: 2.28x

BatB: 2.88x

IM3: 2.35x

 

But summer!  But holidays!! But Maaaaaarch! I hear people cry. Yeah, and my response is that It just did 300+ after opening in September, so maybe we shouldn't rely on the historical record book completely (and since the movie going landscape is constantly evolving, I think any comparisons to movies released more than six years ago is somewhat useless, hence not using an adj OW to look at older films).  Besides, summer is still summer.  And many of the above films should have been leggy enough in summer.

 

This isn't to say that if the stars align things can't be shattered in the holiday season.  Of course they can.  But maybe, just maaaaaaaaaaybe, we should dial back expectations a wee little bit when something opens over 200m on OW, no matter when it is in the calendar.  Especially if it is a sequel to a well established property.

Edited December 25, 2017 by Porthos

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

So no chance for a 125% jump then huh?

Sure there is...if Jumanji's is even higher:)...

 

But if I was forced to pick a side right now, I'd say no...

 

All IMHO (since I use my own area as a base for everywhere, and any one area can play weird - although the MT.com data is not so limited)...

[WrathOfHan]

Jumanji is finally getting upped to the 2nd biggest auditorium at my theater tomorrow. They're only 6 days late on that  

[baumer]

On 22/12/2017 at 9:54 PM, Christmas baumer said:

 

You're cherry picking the stats. Look you do whatever you want.  I'm not going to continue with this because it's kind of assinine at this point.  I think the numbers are going to be closer to 40 million than 30 million on Monday but I'm not going to do this dance with people who are ignoring all kinds of facts.  So you believe whatever you want to believe and then when the Monday numbers roll around we'll see what it actually does.  But the 60% Friday jump already shows that it's going to have a chance to do significant numbers this weekend.  But, Merry Christmas to you and we'll see what happens over the weekend.

I'm curious as to what the jump will be today.

 

If the number is close to 18 the way it's been reported then a 120% jump gets to 40.

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Jumanji is finally getting upped to the 2nd biggest auditorium at my theater tomorrow. They're only 6 days late on that  

 

What did they have before? Last Jedi?

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

What did they have before? Last Jedi?

TLJ on Wednesday-Thursday and The Greatest Showman on Friday-Monday  

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

I'm curious as to what the jump will be today.

 

If the number is close to 18 the way it's been reported then a 120% jump gets to 40.

 

Could do it, but also could end up lower due to the fact it already had a very strong hold Sunday and I wonder how Discount Tuesday will impact today’s gross. Would not surprise me if some folks are waiting one more day for the cheaper tickets. 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I was pondering this last night, and I kinda want to make a point about films that open to huge OWs in the current era. 

 

I am starting the think that the larger the OW, the smaller the legs we should expect no matter what the season. 

BTW, this IS the exact same damn song I sang last year for R1.  Thanks for noticing.   The only lyrical change I am making this go around is that there is a tiny teensy barely measurable difference between an 155 OW and a 220 OW.  Just a small difference between the two, that is.

[Elessar]

30 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

I'm curious as to what the jump will be today.

 

If the number is close to 18 the way it's been reported then a 120% jump gets to 40.

Like i said, the stronger Christmas Eve box office turns out to be, the worse the Christmas Day jump. Looking back at 2006, Christmas Day should be like slightly better than the Saturday before, at best. No way comes this close to $40m on Monday. Maximum i can see is $35m.

Edited December 25, 2017 by Elessar

[bamajagala]

Strong Christmas incoming for TLJ as expected. Theater checks in LA/NY show ~ 20% increase from Saturday 29.2= 34-35. Not quite a double from last night's 18, but it looks like walk-ups are stronger than usual.

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, Elessar said:

Like i said, the stronger Christmas Eve box office turns out to be, the worse the Christmas Day jump. Looking back at 2006, Christmas Day should be like slightly better than the Saturday before, at best. No way comes this close to $40m on Monday. Maximum i can see is $35m.

 

I wouldn’t say it’s impossible since it is Star Wars and that franchise has repeatedly destroyed expectations. 

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, XO21 said:

Fantastic for Jumanji...better than anyone could have predicted. The Rock and good movies = $$$.

Pain&Gain was is best of him I ever saw, imo. It take more than Dwayne Johnson and the movie to be good. This it is big franchise remake using a proven high concept and having Kevin Hart (arguably the biggest domestic draw when it is a comedy) with him.

[Brainbug]

3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Waiting to borrow blu-ray from friends.

 

Its funny. Thats what im going to do with Avatar 2, 3,4,5 and so on.

[baumer]

16 minutes ago, Elessar said:

Like i said, the stronger Christmas Eve box office turns out to be, the worse the Christmas Day jump. Looking back at 2006, Christmas Day should be like slightly better than the Saturday before, at best. No way comes this close to $40m on Monday. Maximum i can see is $35m.

 

No way a "stronger" Christmas Eve has anything to do with the increase on CD. It's one of the busiest days of the year. 125% jump is pretty average. Even a 100% jump gets it to close to 36.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

No way a "stronger" Christmas Eve has anything to do with the increase on CD. It's one of the busiest days of the year. 125% jump is pretty average. Even a 100% jump gets it to close to 36.

I'm not trying to manage expectations here, but Rogue One jumped 69% on Xmas Sunday. To be fair it then jumped another 24% from that jump on the following Monday (Boxing Day).  So I won't be surprised at all to see less than a 100% jump on this XMas Monday.

Edited December 25, 2017 by Porthos

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

No way a "stronger" Christmas Eve has anything to do with the increase on CD. It's one of the busiest days of the year. 125% jump is pretty average. Even a 100% jump gets it to close to 36.

 

So do you believe a sub-100% increase is impossible? I think it could go anywhere from 75% increase to 130% increase. I won’t rule out either scenario at the moment.