4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[baumer]

Alright I give up. The signs are there guys. If you want to ignore them and just keep coming up with excuses that it was never going to gross that much and December is not good for opening weekends and the word of mouth is really not that bad and so on and so on then God bless all of you and you can live inside that box. I see it they completely different way and the evidence to me it's clear but it's not worth arguing about it anymore.

[Brainbug]

Just now, Elessar said:

More like 60m.

 

Rogue One sits at 532M and had 60M viewers per BOM. Youre probably right, because they dont account for premium formats and so on, but on that site, a 600M+ run will appear as 70M+ tickets sold. 

[TommyA10]

3 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

If the Last Jedi had opened at 190-200 then 600-650 would make perfect sense. But went open to the second highest weekend of all time the multiplier is going to be pathetic

Maybe it’s just the fact that sequels to massive event movies like ANH/TPM/TFA are bound to drop significantly in total gross, regardless of the OW (or WOM). We might get a slightly lower opener like RO, with decent legs, or massive opener like TLJ with relatively poor legs.

[Elessar]

2 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

Alright I give up. The signs are there guys. If you want to ignore them and just keep coming up with excuses that it was never going to gross that much

It was never going to gross as much as TFA. But with much better WOM it might have come close to $800m.

[titanic2187]

If TLJ's "poor" legs were to persistent, with some other flopping newcomers, I wouldn't be surprised those pre-christmas holdovers like DH2, wonder(some coming back has already in plan), MOTE or even JL are going to come back again in 4 days NY weekend

[Arlborn]

3 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

Alright I give up. The signs are there guys. If you want to ignore them and just keep coming up with excuses that it was never going to gross that much and December is not good for opening weekends and the word of mouth is really not that bad and so on and so on then God bless all of you and you can live inside that box. I see it they completely different way and the evidence to me it's clear but it's not worth arguing about it anymore.

It's pretty obvious the WOM is sorta mixed in the USA at least. It didn't play safe enough like TFA did. IX will be a safer movie like TFA as course correction.

 

So will the new trilogy. In fact if I had to guess I'd say they'll be inserting some Skywalker stuff into the new trilogy now just because of how TLJ is being received.

[Walt Disney]

The problem with TLJ (and there really isn't a problem because the film is going to be one of the 200 highest gross films of all-time when you adjust for inflation, ranking in the top 50) is that the movie took risks. Everyone always complains about the MCU and why those movies never "take risks." However, the reason is because successful blockbuster film making is about giving the audience what it wants. If you take risks, you create more opportunity to disappoint people. 

 

Disney clearly thought the risks taken were going to go over well with the GA and lead to an even greater box office run than the movie has had so far. However, they were wrong. Next time people criticize a movie for not "taking risks," try to take a step back and remember TLJ. Most of the time, it is much better to play it safe. As it turns out, people didn't want something drastically different from the OT with TLJ. All they wanted was a movie that played it safe and was more like the OT. That is why TFA succeeded the way that it did. 

 

Blockbuster film-making is about knowing your audience and what it wants. Even if this movie goes on to gross $750M, everything that I said is still true. And the Star Wars brand is not tarnished and Disney will have lots of opportunities to make many other blockbusters. And hopefully when they play it safe in the future, they won't be criticized for it here. 

[Firepower]

TLJ drop is terrible, no matter how you defend it. it's 2017, not 1980, so ESB is not comparable, sequels don't drop this much nowadays, even shitty ones. I mean when direct sequel drops from 2.1 of its predeseccor to 1.3-1.4 in 2017, it's a disaster.

[MinaTakla]

To think that Jurassic World will end up with more WW than The Last Jedi WW is also very interesting.

The power of Universal Studios in overseas markets is really evident (Jurassic, Despicable Me, Fast and Furious are monstrous overseas and consistently grab the cash almost in all markets).

Edited December 26, 2017 by MinaTakla

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, Walt Disney said:

The problem with TLJ (and there really isn't a problem because the film is going to be one of the 200 highest gross films of all-time when you adjust for inflation, ranking in the top 50) is that the movie took risks. Everyone always complains about the MCU and why those movies never "take risks." However, the reason is because successful blockbuster film making is about giving the audience what it wants. If you take risks, you create more opportunity to disappoint people. 

 

Disney clearly thought the risks taken were going to go over well with the GA and lead to an even greater box office run than the movie has had so far. However, they were wrong. Next time people criticize a movie for not "taking risks," try to take a step back and remember TLJ. Most of the time, it is much better to play it safe. As it turns out, people didn't want something drastically different from the OT with TLJ. All they wanted was a movie that played it safe and was more like the OT. That is why TFA succeeded the way that it did. 

 

Blockbuster film-making is about knowing your audience and what it wants. Even if this movie goes on to gross $750M, everything that I said is still true. And the Star Wars brand is not tarnished and Disney will have lots of opportunities to make many other blockbusters. And hopefully when they play it safe in the future, they won't be criticized for it here. 

 

Good post. Though you and I know, if Episode IX will be a "safe movie" like TFA, people will complain that it is too safe. Its just how things go.

[wildphantom]

I’m conflicted. 

On the one hand it makes perfect sense to me that a sequel opening to a near record breaking OW hasn’t had major legs as everyone who wanted to see it has seen it. 

 

On the other hand, and as Baumer has said, it is Christmas. Just the time of year it is and the type of audience it appeals to - it should be getting a 3x multiplier minimum as people need something to do! 

 

Millions of people with time on their hands are either not going to the movies, or choosing to see something else. 

There is a real mixed word out there. It is having an effect.  We can debate all day whether it’s merited, or partly caused by the media reporting on the ‘backlash’ but it is mixed - whether we like it or not. 

 

[Elessar]

14 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

It's pretty obvious the WOM is sorta mixed in the USA at least. It didn't play safe enough like TFA did.

I think that's an easy excuse, not playing it safe enough. The blame lies squarely on the filmmakers for churning out a quite average product.

Edited December 26, 2017 by Elessar

[Valonqar]

9 minutes ago, Walt Disney said:

The problem with TLJ (and there really isn't a problem because the film is going to be one of the 200 highest gross films of all-time when you adjust for inflation, ranking in the top 50) is that the movie took risks. Everyone always complains about the MCU and why those movies never "take risks." However, the reason is because successful blockbuster film making is about giving the audience what it wants. If you take risks, you create more opportunity to disappoint people. 

 

Disney clearly thought the risks taken were going to go over well with the GA and lead to an even greater box office run than the movie has had so far. However, they were wrong. Next time people criticize a movie for not "taking risks," try to take a step back and remember TLJ. Most of the time, it is much better to play it safe. As it turns out, people didn't want something drastically different from the OT with TLJ. All they wanted was a movie that played it safe and was more like the OT. That is why TFA succeeded the way that it did. 

 

Blockbuster film-making is about knowing your audience and what it wants. Even if this movie goes on to gross $750M, everything that I said is still true. And the Star Wars brand is not tarnished and Disney will have lots of opportunities to make many other blockbusters. And hopefully when they play it safe in the future, they won't be criticized for it here. 

The problem aren't risks. The problem is bloat. TLJ has an entire plot that simply doesn't work and yet it takes up half of the running time or more. That's the problem. It's hardcore fans who have problems with "risks"(mostly surrounding one specific character) but casual viewer is always going to have more problem with boredom. And that part of the movie is insufferable. Also, TLJ humor doesn't work and that's another determent. 

 

@Elessar Yep, and what passes for "risk" in TLJ isn't really a risk. The movie simply tried to subvert tropes...while relying on some of the worst tropes. Risk my ass.

Edited December 26, 2017 by Valonqar

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, Walt Disney said:

The problem with TLJ (and there really isn't a problem because the film is going to be one of the 200 highest gross films of all-time when you adjust for inflation, ranking in the top 50) is that the movie took risks. Everyone always complains about the MCU and why those movies never "take risks." However, the reason is because successful blockbuster film making is about giving the audience what it wants. If you take risks, you create more opportunity to disappoint people. 

 

Disney clearly thought the risks taken were going to go over well with the GA and lead to an even greater box office run than the movie has had so far. However, they were wrong. Next time people criticize a movie for not "taking risks," try to take a step back and remember TLJ. Most of the time, it is much better to play it safe. As it turns out, people didn't want something drastically different from the OT with TLJ. All they wanted was a movie that played it safe and was more like the OT. That is why TFA succeeded the way that it did. 

 

Blockbuster film-making is about knowing your audience and what it wants. Even if this movie goes on to gross $750M, everything that I said is still true. And the Star Wars brand is not tarnished and Disney will have lots of opportunities to make many other blockbusters. And hopefully when they play it safe in the future, they won't be criticized for it here. 

Logan and Deadpool took huge creative risk, and they succeed beautifully...

Almost all MCU movies play safe, and they make awesome achievement...

 

Valerian took huge risk, and they failed, and thousand of movies play safe out there, they still a failure..

 

My point, box office achievement come with its quality, not by how much the risks they have taken.... 

 

[Firepower]

TLJ didn't take any risks. It was your typical SW movie and reversed remake of ESB, just with the worse script than usually. Abrams is much better writer than Johnson.

[Brainbug]

Just now, titanic2187 said:

My point, box office achievement come with its quality, not by how much the risks they have taken.... 

 

Ehh

 

55

Suicide Squad

WB

$325,100,054

2016

 

26

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

P/DW

$402,111,870

2009

 

10

Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace

Fox

$474,544,677

1999^

 

48

Minions

Uni.

$336,045,770

2015

[titanic2187]

Just now, Brainbug said:

Ehh

 

55

Suicide Squad

WB

$325,100,054

2016

 

26

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

P/DW

$402,111,870

2009

 

10

Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace

Fox

$474,544,677

1999^

 

48

Minions

Uni.

$336,045,770

2015

add on, and come with their marketing .......lol

[Lordmandeep]

TLJ took some  huge risks.

 

IMO it took to many. 

[Walt Disney]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

Logan and Deadpool took huge creative risk, and they succeed beautifully...

Almost all MCU movies play safe, and they make awesome achievement...

 

Valerian took huge risk, and they failed, and thousand of movies play safe out there, they still a failure..

 

My point, box office achievement come with its quality, not by how much the risks they have taken.... 

 

 

Extreme box office success (and again this is all about potential because TLJ will achieve more than most movies ever dream of) has to do with giving the audiences what they want and meeting their expectations. 

[mikee11]

2 minutes ago, Firepower said:

TLJ didn't take any risks. It was your typical SW movie and reversed remake of ESB, just with the worse script than usually. Abrams is much better writer than Johnson.

I would say it took risks  by just brushing off everything TFA set up, and completely messing up a fan favorite. So it pissed off TFA fans and OT fans.

The plot felt like a mash of OT plotlines, and it was things we've seen before but with different characters, not terribly original.

It took the wrong kind of risks IMO and Star Wars is still stuck where it has always been, except everyone is mad.