Thursday Numbers (Asgard): TLJ $19.5 J $15m

[redfirebird2008]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 TLJ also never had that monster 30% drop earlier in the week that R1 had on its post Xmas/Boxing Day run.

 

Not sure what it says, but it's probably saying something.

 

It doesn’t say anything since Rogue One increased 69% on Christmas Day and 24% on Boxing Day. TLJ didn’t do either of those. Bigger the jump, harder the fall. 

 

Rogue One’s Boxing Day was 109% higher than Christmas Eve. Last Jedi’s Boxing Day was 57% higher than Christmas Eve. Both movies are having normal daily holds when you put it in this context. 

Edited December 29, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[Krissykins]

I guess with Last Jedi it’s just strange because we’ve never had an underperformance conversation about a film posting numbers this big. 

 

I think a big part of is when you realise if it ends up $600-700m less than the previous sequel and when you think of that in amounts of actual people who haven’t shown up for the sequel, it seems gigantic and hard to ignore. That’s what, 70 million people/tickets roughly?

 

Last Jedi is definitely a unique conversation. 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Manchester by the Tree said:

Or indeed, this little gem:

 

 

 

Gotta love it when people tell you that you are crazy and that there is a 0% chance of it happening and that it will gross less than Clones adjusted HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[hw64]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

I guess with Last Jedi it’s just strange because we’ve never had an underperformance conversation about a film posting numbers this big.

Ultron might be bigger than The Last Jedi worldwide and there's definitely been underperformance conversations about that.

[RandomCat]

14 minutes ago, Manchester by the Tree said:

Or indeed, this little gem:

 

 

Props. Man...some of those posts are crazy in hindsight.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, hw64 said:

Ultron might be bigger than The Last Jedi worldwide and there's definitely been underperformance conversations about that.

 

What's the significance of AOE to this conversation?  You mean because people said Ultron under performed?  Yea, I guess you are right.  Amazing, it came in 100 million less than Avengers and people called it disappointing.  Strange.

[George Parr]

10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I guess with Last Jedi it’s just strange because we’ve never had an underperformance conversation about a film posting numbers this big. 

 

I think a big part of is when you realise if it ends up $600-700m less than the previous sequel and when you think of that in amounts of actual people who haven’t shown up for the sequel, it seems gigantic and hard to ignore. That’s what, 70 million people/tickets roughly?

 

Last Jedi is definitely a unique conversation. 

You mean 70 million people who went to see it, or a drop of 70m?

The former could be somewhat close - maybe it's just in the 60s - the latter obviously not. TFA was likely somewhere in the 90m range when it comes to tickets sold, based on its share of 3D, IMAX and all that expensive stuff.

 

edit: oh, or were you talking worldwide?

In that case it is impossible to say, because prices obviously differ greatly everywhere.

Edited December 29, 2017 by George Parr

[Krissykins]

6 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Ultron might be bigger than The Last Jedi worldwide and there's definitely been underperformance conversations about that.

I don’t think there was as much media involvement around Ultron performance. 

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, George Parr said:

You mean 70 million people who went to see it, or a drop of 70m?

The former could be somewhat close - maybe it's just in the 60s - the latter obviously not. TFA was likely somewhere in the 90m range when it comes to tickets sold, based on its share of 3D, IMAX and all that expensive stuff.

A drop worldwide of about 70m tickets. 

 

I just did a $600m grosser with BOM est tickets. It’s impossible to be more exact due to overseas pricing. 

[estebanJ]

11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I guess with Last Jedi it’s just strange because we’ve never had an underperformance conversation about a film posting numbers this big. 

 

......

 

Last Jedi is definitely a unique conversation. 

 

Ultron on line one ... 

[George Parr]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

A drop worldwide of about 70m tickets. 

 

I just did a $600m grosser with BOM est tickets. It’s impossible to be more exact due to overseas pricing. 

Yes, I realised that right after I posted it, that's why I edited the post.

 

I don't think that it's really something that can be gauged in any way through box office numbers. There are just too many differences in price between countries. You'd probably would need to go throzugh the entire list on a case by case basis. Sometimes you would get lucky and get actual admission numbers, but for the most part it would be more of a guesswork.

 

BOM's ticket counter is really useless though. It just takes the average ticket price, without any consideration for the individual movie. Hence creating totally weird numbers for movies that are more expensive, especially when 3D is in play. TFA had a big 3D-share, Avatar an even larger one, those movies get really inflated ticket numbers using BOM's method.

[RandomCat]

There are some really good stuff in here, and a lot of accurate analysis of TFA's potential legs.

 

Just not many people thinking it would OW to nearly 250M.

[baumer]

Finally seeing Jumanji. Last day of work. Then on vacay for ten days. But I don't start till 1. So Jumanji it is.

[75Live]

3 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

Finally seeing Jumanji. Last day of work. Then on vacay for ten days. But I don't start till 1. So Jumanji it is.

 

I hope to see Jumanji soon, as well, especially since i'm unemployed in about 5 hours so I will have plenty of time to see movies  

[Brainbug]

59 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

What's the significance of AOE to this conversation?  You mean because people said Ultron under performed?  Yea, I guess you are right.  Amazing, it came in 100 million less than Avengers and people called it disappointing.  Strange.

 

I never understood why people were so hard on AOU's gross. It grossed more than TA1 overseas and experienced a sizable, but not too bad drop from the first DOM. Its still the third-highest grossing SH of all time DOM only behind the cultural phenomenons that were TDK and TA1. Its the highest grossing SH movie of all time OS.

 

Calling that an underperformance seems illogical.

[Deep Wang]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I never understood why people were so hard on AOU's gross. It grossed more than TA1 overseas and experienced a sizable, but not too bad drop from the first DOM. Its still the third-highest grossing SH of all time DOM only behind the cultural phenomenons that were TDK and TA1. Its the highest grossing SH movie of all time OS.

 

Calling that an underperformance seems illogical.

 

That's just kinda what we do. 

[Krissykins]

54 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Yes, I realised that right after I posted it, that's why I edited the post.

 

I don't think that it's really something that can be gauged in any way through box office numbers. There are just too many differences in price between countries. You'd probably would need to go throzugh the entire list on a case by case basis. Sometimes you would get lucky and get actual admission numbers, but for the most part it would be more of a guesswork.

 

BOM's ticket counter is really useless though. It just takes the average ticket price, without any consideration for the individual movie. Hence creating totally weird numbers for movies that are more expensive, especially when 3D is in play. TFA had a big 3D-share, Avatar an even larger one, those movies get really inflated ticket numbers using BOM's method.

I did say in my original post that it was an estimate and also that it was impossible to be exact.

 

I wasn’t tying to say I was exact. I thought that was pretty obvious from my post. 

 

[George Parr]

Just now, Krissykins said:

I did say in my original post that it was an estimate and also that it was impossible to be exact.

 

I wasn’t tying to say I was exact. I thought that was pretty obvious from my post. 

 

And all I said was that the whole idea is useless to begin with, because the method used by BOM is faulty to the extreme, even if only applied to the domestic market.

[John Marston]

2 hours ago, Christmas baumer said:

I've been doing some thinking about TLJ and the so called underwhelming performance.  Take a look at this thread:

 

 

This was a club I made way before presales and the hype took over.  Most people in the club, before the presales numbers were released, had TFA making between 500-650 million, some said as high as 700.  No one had it doing passing Avatar domestically and no one had it doing 800 million.  Even my prediction at the beginning of the thread was 550 domestic.  No one saw the absolute craziness that TFA would delight us with for the duration of its run.  No one thought it would come even close to the insane number of 937 million.

 

Why do I bring this up?  Well, maybe those of us, including myself, who are claiming that TLJ isn't doing what it should be doing, need to step back and realize that TFA was just a once in a generation anomaly and even though it (TLJ) opened to 220 million, finishing with 650-700 is still a remarkable number.  It will more than likely be the third highest grossing film domestically of all time and will be probably end up in the 7 or 8th slot world wide.  If TFA hadn't of come along and destroyed the box office, if it would have even made "just" 1.6 billion, then this performance by TLJ would have been looked upon much differently.

 

The multiplier is still a little vexing (although it could still get to north of 3.2, especially with next week acting like a holiday week) and it still should get to a minimum of 3X.  The number that really messed me up is the Christmas Day bump of only 55%.  So there is no denying that the wom has been affected by those of us who didn't care for it.  But if TFA hadn't destroyed records, this run, the numbers it's putting up would be considered very strong.  Maybe I need to step back and just realize hat 660-720 million is a hell of a gross and to just not look at it as a juxtaposition against the opening weekend.  

 

I think it's easy to criticize the films run because of the opening weekend and the weak CD bump, but if TFA hadn't done what it did, we'd be singing a different tune about TLJ.  Most people had TFA doing less than 700 million, in fact no one predicted it to hit 700 before the presales numbers were released.  And now this one will probably hit that number and yet we call it a disappointment.  I'm more guilty than most for doing it, and that stems from me being upset at the film thematically.  But when you look at the dollars and not anything else, it's doing quite phenomenal. 

 

 

Disagree. Under 700m domestic and overseas wasn't predicted by anyone so there is some disappointment there automatically. Even after opening weekend people were saying numbers like 850m

[redfirebird2008]

9 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I never understood why people were so hard on AOU's gross. It grossed more than TA1 overseas and experienced a sizable, but not too bad drop from the first DOM. Its still the third-highest grossing SH of all time DOM only behind the cultural phenomenons that were TDK and TA1. Its the highest grossing SH movie of all time OS.

 

Calling that an underperformance seems illogical.

 

Most figured 500 domestic was pretty much locked. Poop happens.