New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[MovieMan89]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

There’s a slim chance that Mortal Engines does $300M. 

I’d say no chance given competition. A whole lot of movies vying for 200+ in November and December. ME will probably be a big casualty if it doesn’t really deliver. 

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I dont really disagree with that. But i think its both: 200M+ OW movies still beeing unpredictable in December and the mixed reception.

 

I’d say 130+ since Rogue One at 155 had some very strange daily/weekly percentages compared to much smaller movies in 2016. 200+ puts the “strange” on even more steroids. 

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, Hades said:

People will appreciate TLJ numbers a lot more when Episode 9 fails to get close to it. There is no hook for Episode 9, like an Episode 3 or 6. Unless they somehow resurrect Darth Vader or something like that. The last film of the trilogy tagline may not be enough. 

 

Impressive. Every word in these sentences was wrong.

Edited December 30, 2017 by Brainbug

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Hades said:

People will appreciate TLJ numbers a lot more when Episode 9 fails to get close to it. There is no hook for Episode 9, like an Episode 3 or 6. Unless they somehow resurrect Darth Vader or something like that. The last film of the trilogy tagline may not be enough. 

The hook is it’s actually a reboot of episode 8 and TLJ is indeed no longer canon.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

The hook is it’s actually a reboot of episode 8 and TLJ is indeed no longer canon.

 

[AniNate]

I will say, much as I enjoyed Episode 8, Episode 9 had better resolve the dangling plot strings in a satisfactory manner. I'll probably be assessing the next movie with the hypersensitivity everyone else apparently was evaluating TLJ with.

 

 

Edited December 30, 2017 by tribefan695

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The hook is it’s actually a reboot of episode 8 and TLJ is indeed no longer canon.

[the beast]

any numbers yet?

[IronJimbo]

Sws ep9 should make >0.5A WW nd probaly around Avatar DOM.

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

35 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Who is excited for the arrival of 2018 and the opening of Insidious: What, Another? to kick off the new year cinema-wise next week?

Given it's been ages since the last horror movie, me!

[Hades]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Impressive. Every word in these sentences was wrong.

 

 

Maybe Lando will be the big draw for the next one 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, tribefan695 said:

I will say, much as I enjoyed Episode 8, Episode 9 had better resolve the dangling plot strings in a satisfactory manner. I'll probably be assessing the next movie with the hypersensitivity everyone else apparently was evaluating TLJ with.

 

 

 

I agree. ESB remains such an amazing movie partly because we know how all of its plot strings are resolved in ROTJ. Trilogys can only be judged fairly when all three movies are out. People woundt like LOTR that much if ROTK would have sucked. In that example, they would love the first two but because they know how dissatisfying the final chapter is, all of the set up from the first two is wasted.

 

I believe Episode IX will be as great as TFA and TLJ.

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Impressive. Every word in these sentences was wrong.

 

I don’t agree with him that it will drop a lot, but I also don’t agree with the idea it’s locked to increase. The same people pushing that refused to believe Last Jedi could go below $700m. 

 

The lack of Vader is a huge problem compared to Episodes 3 & 6. The events of TLJ also flushed a big ace in the hole down the toilet. They won’t be able to play this ace in the same manner for Episode 9. 

[MCKillswitch123]

56 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Wasn't Jumanji supposed to open in July at one point?

It was. Its change to December came after Sony reshuffled some of their movies' release dates around. Jumanji was supposed to open in late July, some weeks after Spider-Man: Homecoming. It was then moved to December as too much Sony stuff was gonna be crammed in July/August, and The Rock already had Baywatch in May (which did not turn out good whatsoever). Plus, Passengers successfully counterprogramming Rogue One probably gave Sony confidence that they could handle Star Wars (and good on them, cause it clearly worked).

 

Then, The Dark Tower moved from last weekend of July to 1st of August (which made sense, since it would've opened directly after Dunkirk/Girls Trip/Valerian). It's move from July to August may have saved it from being a bigger underperformer than it already was. TDT's August move forced Baby Driver to change, and it changed to late June (after Transformers 5 and before Despicable Me 3), in order to capitalize on the strong reviews early on. Many of us thought that change was a deadly blow to BD's success potential, moving it away from a very open August and into a crowded June/July space; and again, we were all badly wrong on that end. And The Emoji Movie, since TDT was in August (and since Sony probably knew that it sucked balls, wanting to give it more time to play during the empty void of August), moved up to late July.

 

Say what you will about Sony, but we have to admit: can't say that these decisions didn't pay off really well at the end of the day. Good for them.

[baumer]

I'm going to save this post and bring it back up in 2020 when SW is at the end of its run.

 

E9 will do more than E8 and Idon't think it will be close.  SW fans are a loyal bunch and with JJ coming back, I believe he will fix all the mistakes that Rian made.  I believe they will go back to what made SW so loved.  And I believe somehow they will have Luke in it, maybe Ford and maybe Vader is some way.  I believe they will do everything they can to make it right again because they now know they have left perhaps half a billion dollars in the table.  They can say they are happy with RJ's Star Wars but I call bullshit.

 

So my fearless prediction for the next one is that Ford has a small role, Hamill as well.  And they will get Vader in there as well.

 

OW:  215

Domestic:  750

International:  No idea

 

OD:  100 mill

Sat:  62

Sun: 53

Mon:  32 (-40%)

Tues:  19 (-39%) CE

Wed:  32 (+70%)

 

And so on.  I think E9 will be much much bigger.  I'll save this post and bring it up again in 2019 upon the release.

[baumer]

Or they could just pull a DALLAS (TV show from the 80's) and have The Last Jedi just be a dream of Rey's or something.  Just pretend it never existed.  

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Given it's been ages since the last horror movie, me!

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The hook is it’s actually a reboot of episode 8 and TLJ is indeed no longer canon.

You laugh, but I actually asked my brothers if they thought if a "Bobby Ewing in the shower" moment is coming...

 

You know force visions have happened all the time...maybe not a whole movie, buuuutttt...

[Chaz]

2 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

Or they could just pull a DALLAS (TV show from the 80's) and have The Last Jedi just be a dream of Rey's or something.  Just pretend it never existed.  

Patrick Duffy in the shower? Bold move on JJ’s part.

[Brainbug]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I don’t agree with him that it will drop a lot, but I also don’t agree with the idea it’s locked to increase. The same people pushing that refused to believe Last Jedi could go below $700m. 

 

The lack of Vader is a huge problem compared to Episodes 3 & 6. The events of TLJ also flushed a big ace in the hole down the toilet. They won’t be able to play this ace in the same manner for Episode 9. 

 

I can understand all these arguments, but i wont make a real prediction for any movie before marketing hits us. We have no idea how the Hype for Episode IX will be. The Trailers could be amazing or underwhelming. Nobody knows. And before that, arguing now, 15 days into TLJ's run, about Episode IX is pointless imo.

 

I disagree completely with the bold sentences, but thats just my subjective opinion about the movie. Cant go into that really without spoilers.