New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[TigerPaw]

Rth's numbers show that TLJ did not gross more than 20m on Saturday.. it was its last chance of a 20m Single Day gross.

 

now that chance is gone.

Edited December 31, 2017 by TigerPaw

[redfirebird2008]

So 3-day for Last Jedi could be around 51. That is over 28% drop compared to 22.5% for Rogue One. Ugly stuff. 

Edited December 31, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[DeeCee]

1 hour ago, aabattery said:

When I'm in 2018 and everyone else on BOT is still in 2017:

 

 

Happy new year!

That’s not possible. 

 

It can’t be true. 

[DeeCee]

1 hour ago, aabattery said:

 

Not only is it a new year, but it is also the birthday of... 297 valuable members of the forum!

fify

[redfirebird2008]

@jjack339

 

You jumped on @Lordmandeep for supposedly lowballing the 3-day weekend at 60, but TLJ will be extremely lucky to reach 55 at this point. More likely low 50’s. 

[Brainbug]

Lets all not forget that Jumanji is like a mini-phenomenon now. These are incredible numbers for it. Exactly what Sony needed at this point.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Which is 19.8 and 19.5?

[junkshop36]

27 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

So 3-day for Last Jedi could be around 51. That is over 28% drop compared to 22.5% for Rogue One. Ugly stuff. 

 

51-52m probably. Was hoping for 55. Oh well, it is what it is. Still the 5th highest 3rd weekend ever though. 

[George Parr]

28 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

So 3-day for Last Jedi could be around 51. That is over 28% drop compared to 22.5% for Rogue One. Ugly stuff. 

TLJ had a surprisingly good Sunday drop last weekend though, if that repeats, it might go a bit higher than that.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Do these kind of numbers essentially lock up a sub-3.0 OW DOM multiplier for TLJ? Or, still too early?

Edited December 31, 2017 by JohnnyGossamer

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, George Parr said:

TLJ had a surprisingly good Sunday drop last weekend though, if that repeats, it might go a bit higher than that.

 

Best case is around 53.5, which requires RTH’s clue to be 19.8 instead of 19.5 and a 26% Sunday drop from the 19.8 Saturday. 

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Do these kind of numbers essentially lock up a sub-3.0 OW DOM multiplier for TALK? Or, still too early?

 

645 (or less) appears more likely than 660 at this point. 

[mikee11]

maybe discount tuesday will put it back on track like last week

[George Parr]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Best case is around 53.5, which requires RTH’s clue to be 19.8 instead of 19.5 and a 26% Sunday drop from the 19.8 Saturday. 

Yeah, that's probably as high as it could get. That would put it at "just" -25% though, not that far away from Rogue One. Still quite a bit away from what seemed possible for the weekend.

 

Will still get the fifth best third weekend and third best third week, but that really should have been third best and second best each.

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Do these kind of numbers essentially lock up a sub-3.0 OW DOM multiplier for TLJ? Or, still too early?

 

Its still too early i think. We really need a non-holiday weekend (aka next weekend) to determine whether or not TLJ can have good holds during January or not.

[Deep Wang]

7 hours ago, MrPink said:

I'm pretty vanilla too but I will say, and @Darth Boh-ne'er will back me up on this, Sally Hawkins was cute in Shape of Water.

 

 

Yes, I'm way into her now!

[Lordmandeep]

700 million is pretty much dead now.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, mikee11 said:

maybe discount tuesday will put it back on track like last week

 

That will be very difficult. Last week, most of the population was off work on Tuesday. That will not be the case on Tuesday the 2nd.

 

Kids and teachers are still out of school in a lot of places, but probably over 100 million people going back to work who were off last Tuesday and will be off Monday the 1st.  

 

Probably will drop around 30-40% from Monday to Tuesday. In 2006 a lot of movies dropped around 50-55%. 

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2007-01-02&p=.htm

[George Parr]

Probably just a coincidence, but the only movies on the same schedule who remotely behaved like TLJ is currently doing this weekend - meaning holding more or less steady from Thursday to Saturday - were Charlotte's Web and Happy Feet. Both increased a bit on Friday and then dropped on Saturday, which is the opposite behaviour, but the totals are more or less flat. Those two also had the lowest christmas day increase (like TLJ), held (among) the best on the 26th (like TLJ), and where among the lowest NYD increases and dropped the worst on the following weekend. That sounds like a pretty likely path for TLJ as well, though they really are completely different movies.

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, George Parr said:

Probably just a coincidence, but the only movies on the same schedule who remotely behaved like TLJ is currently doing this weekend - meaning holding more or less steady from Thursday to Saturday - were Charlotte's Web and Happy Feet. Both increased a bit on Friday and then dropped on Saturday, which is the opposite behaviour, but the totals are more or less flat. Those two also had the lowest christmas day increase (like TLJ), held (among) the best on the 26th (like TLJ), and where among the lowest NYD increases and dropped the worst on the following weekend. That sounds like a pretty likely path for TLJ as well, though they really are completely different movies.

 

Never would expect it to play like those movies. Very strange run. Definitely not boring.