New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[George Parr]

To be fair, their daily behaviour in between was completely different. They pretty much grew from Monday to Thursday.

[Valonqar]

45 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Which is 19.8 and 19.5?

Either way #toxicWOM is real? 

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, George Parr said:

To be fair, their daily behaviour in between was completely different. They pretty much grew from Monday to Thursday.

 

It has been carving out its own path, not follow any historical comparison we attempt. The numbers are so much larger it pretty much kills the daily comps. 

 

Funny thing is Eragon had drastically different daily percentages outside of Christmas Day, but looks like the total multiplier for Eragon will be the best overall comparison from 2006 for TLJ. 

[narniadis]

Ugh what an ugly Saturday on top of the bad Friday. Obviously I was wrong on how the Christmas weekend would play out but I had hoped it would hold stronger than -20+% this weekend. 

 

Jumanji at this point is reminding me of the pop culture movie phenomenas that happen now and then where a wave starts and it just keeps going with things looking better and better as time moves on. 

 

Finally, I know this was yesterday's discussion but the runtime is a factor for some. We are seeing a film today with some friends and Jedi's starting times are just awkward with our other plans so we are seeing Jumanji instead. Hope to catch Jedi tomorrow before break is over but again start times are odd and make it difficult to fit into the schedule. 

[baumer]

So here is an interesting analysis I had of Rogue One's potential.  This is when I was analyzing why R1 might not get a 3X.  You can basically replace Rogue One in the post with TLJ, and maybe it's all coming true, only a year later and a movie later.  For those of us, and I include myself here because I believe the last jedi is suffering from mixed wom, here is an interesting piece on films that have opened to north of 140 million.

 

 

From last year:

 

 

For those of you who are positive that strong presales means this is going to pass 450, here's my rebuttal.

 

SW has a loonie dedicated fan base.  I should know.  I'm part of it.  So this fan base is going to snap up tickets for the first weekend.  I've never had any doubts that this would have a huge opening weekend.  My initial prediction in the first post was 125 million.  Lets say for argument sake that this has a 150 million OW.  In your eyes, this means 450 is crushed and it will more than likely go over 500 and push for 600.  And that is a fair assumption, basing it on multipliers in December.  Here's the problem with that thought process.  There's been 16 movies to open to 140 million.  Of those 16 only one of course was in December, and that was TFA.  We'll get to that film in just a second.  

 

Of the other 15 films, the three best multipliers belong to 1) The Dark Knight with 3.37, 2) Jurassic World at 3.13 and Avengers at 3.0.  True none of these are December films but we have 16 films to work with where none of them that opened to more than 140 million hit better than a 3.37X.  That means for Rogue One to hit 450 million, the minimum it would have to open to if you go by history is 133.5 million.  And that's going by the high end of multipliers.  If you look at a couple of other films, you have a 2.68 for Catching Fire, 2.4 for AOE and 2.8 for TDKR.

 

So that brings us to TFA.  Yes, it got a 3.77 multiplier, by far the biggest and best multiplier of any film that opened to more than 140 million.  But we all know that TFA hit the zeitgeist.  That had Han Solo and Chewie and the Millenium Falcon and Luke and Leia and so much SW mythology and it was the antithesis to what the prequels were.  It gave us fans everything we wanted and it blew the doors off of everyone's expectations.  Rogue One has no chance of opening this big and IMHO it does not have a chance at that kind of multiplier.  It is a spin off and yes it connects the story but we have 15 other films that opened to massive numbers and none of them managed a 3.5 multiplier.  

 

The bigger a film opens, usually the smaller multiplier it has.  Again, the golden nugget dangling in front of all of you is TFA but can we all agree that it did everything right?  It was a perfect storm of anticipation, some apathy towards the prequels, re-uniting the main three from the originals, a cool villain, and so much more.  It was just perfect in every sense.  

 

So now we have the massive SW fan base snatching up tickets for the first weekend.  Is this is a shock?  No.  Rogue One is going to, even if it just opens to "just" 125 million crush the previous non SW December record by about 50%.  So it's going to be a huge opener.  But the bigger it opens, the lower the multiplier will be.  IMO, you can't expect a film that opens to 130-150 million to have massive legs.  A 3X would be huge.  Obviously it could have stronger legs, if you go by TFA, but I think that's such an anomaly that it's not applicable in this situation.  Rogue One imo, if the film is good and casual fans like it, will hit a 3.25-3.3 multiplier.  If it doesn't resonate with casual fans, it could definitely go below three.  And that's not an indictment of the film.  It's more of a reality based on how big opening weekend films perform.  Even if you were to give it the 3.37 that TDK got, it needs a 133 million opening weekend.  But like TFA, TDK hit the zeitgeist.  That film did everything right and people came to it over and over again.  

 

SW fan base is huge no doubt.  But there are still plenty of people like me out there who are massive massive SW fans who don't have a lot of interest in this one. So I personally think 3.37 is too high.

 

So if you take out the Twilight films and the last Potter film, and Spider-man 3, because people kind of hated that one, and then you take the average of the remaining films, you have a multiplier under 3.  So for Rogue One to have a legitimate shot at 450, I believe it has to open to 150 million at least.  

 

Now some of you might think I'm just blowing hot air to make a case for myself.  But I'm not.  I'm using real data.  I'm not making up these numbers.  Because December is such a mystery to us, because we only have one massive film to open in December, that of course being TFA, it's hard to gauge what will happen.  I have nothing to back this up, but if I had to guess right now, imo, if Rogue One were to open to 150 million, I think it could pull a Catching Fire like multiplier and end with 420.  

 

So that's my rebuttal to all of your sneering posts towards me.  Some of you have been really condescending.  Look, most of us here have been following the box office for a very very long time.  I'm not always right, in fact this year I've been mostly wrong.  But before this year, I've been pretty good.  There's a very real possibility that I could be wrong this time too, of course.  But I have put a lot of thought into this and backed it up with some pretty good research.  I believe I'm right.  If I'm not, I'll congratulate all of you and given my speech of defeat.

 

But until the last dollar is counted, try not to be so dismissive of one person's opinion.

 

So here we are a year later and everything I wrote about Rogue One seems to fit with TLJ.  The only difference is we do have one more December film to rebuke this theory.  But Rogue One had a multiplier of 3.4, however it also opened 70 million less than TLJ.  So maybe, this is a combination of things, and not just that the wom is divisive or bad.  I believe if the wom was better on this film, then it would certainly have a multiplier north of 3.  But at the same time, there seems to be other factors at play as well.  As mentioned, there are a litany of other films that opened north of 140 million that did not get a 3 multiplier.  So I guess what I'm saying is that the wom is a problem for sure but perhaps expecting the film to do 3.3 or higher for a multiplier wasn't realistic to begin with.  Or maybe I'm totally wrong, like I was last time and it really is the wom that is the problem.  

 

I just thought this was interesting.

[narniadis]

As for the Word of mouth issue, cinema score / comScore etc are all snippets of particular groups at a particular time. It is scientific but it doesn't stop the fact that it is ultimately skewed, hence why we know grades of less than "A" for some genres are not a good sign. 

 

Again anecdotal but Just from my own circle of friends spanning almost the whole nation and in very differing social groups, mixed is decisively how i would describe the wom.  Nobody is in the middle it is either the best thing ever (more do lean this way but not by much) or the end of our childhood. I dont think we can dismiss the Word of mouth narrative out of hand just because it doesn't fit into our pre-release stubborn box. 

I am not a star wars fanboy (that would be my wife) and she has heard so much mixed information that she was fine seeing Jumanji before Star wars and she cannot be the only one. 

[redfirebird2008]

9 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Ugh what an ugly Saturday on top of the bad Friday. Obviously I was wrong on how the Christmas weekend would play out but I had hoped it would hold stronger than -20+% this weekend. 

 

At this point I think best case is 25% drop for 3-day ($53.7m) and worst case is perhaps around 30% ($50.0m). 

 

Hard to believe it could end up very close to Rogue One’s weekend number. 

Edited December 31, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[narniadis]

@Christmas baumer that post would describe my pre-release expectations exactly and probably my frustration with both sides of the wom argument. Since one side wants to loudly decry that word of mouth is the only issue (regardless of the contrary evidence) and the other (and it is mainly just a couple loudmouths on both sides) want to ignore the real life word of mouth issues that due exist. 

 

I resigned myself to being wrong about the calendar and how the film could play when Christmas weekend didn't behave but ultimately the film will be in my general prerelease gross ballpark so who am I to complain. Other than I simply wanted more. 

[redfirebird2008]

17 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

So here is an interesting analysis I had of Rogue One's potential.  This is when I was analyzing why R1 might not get a 3X.  You can basically replace Rogue One in the post with TLJ, and maybe it's all coming true, only a year later and a movie later.  For those of us, and I include myself here because I believe the last jedi is suffering from mixed wom, here is an interesting piece on films that have opened to north of 140 million.

 

 

From last year:

 

 

For those of you who are positive that strong presales means this is going to pass 450, here's my rebuttal.

 

SW has a loonie dedicated fan base.  I should know.  I'm part of it.  So this fan base is going to snap up tickets for the first weekend.  I've never had any doubts that this would have a huge opening weekend.  My initial prediction in the first post was 125 million.  Lets say for argument sake that this has a 150 million OW.  In your eyes, this means 450 is crushed and it will more than likely go over 500 and push for 600.  And that is a fair assumption, basing it on multipliers in December.  Here's the problem with that thought process.  There's been 16 movies to open to 140 million.  Of those 16 only one of course was in December, and that was TFA.  We'll get to that film in just a second.  

 

Of the other 15 films, the three best multipliers belong to 1) The Dark Knight with 3.37, 2) Jurassic World at 3.13 and Avengers at 3.0.  True none of these are December films but we have 16 films to work with where none of them that opened to more than 140 million hit better than a 3.37X.  That means for Rogue One to hit 450 million, the minimum it would have to open to if you go by history is 133.5 million.  And that's going by the high end of multipliers.  If you look at a couple of other films, you have a 2.68 for Catching Fire, 2.4 for AOE and 2.8 for TDKR.

 

So that brings us to TFA.  Yes, it got a 3.77 multiplier, by far the biggest and best multiplier of any film that opened to more than 140 million.  But we all know that TFA hit the zeitgeist.  That had Han Solo and Chewie and the Millenium Falcon and Luke and Leia and so much SW mythology and it was the antithesis to what the prequels were.  It gave us fans everything we wanted and it blew the doors off of everyone's expectations.  Rogue One has no chance of opening this big and IMHO it does not have a chance at that kind of multiplier.  It is a spin off and yes it connects the story but we have 15 other films that opened to massive numbers and none of them managed a 3.5 multiplier.  

 

The bigger a film opens, usually the smaller multiplier it has.  Again, the golden nugget dangling in front of all of you is TFA but can we all agree that it did everything right?  It was a perfect storm of anticipation, some apathy towards the prequels, re-uniting the main three from the originals, a cool villain, and so much more.  It was just perfect in every sense.  

 

So now we have the massive SW fan base snatching up tickets for the first weekend.  Is this is a shock?  No.  Rogue One is going to, even if it just opens to "just" 125 million crush the previous non SW December record by about 50%.  So it's going to be a huge opener.  But the bigger it opens, the lower the multiplier will be.  IMO, you can't expect a film that opens to 130-150 million to have massive legs.  A 3X would be huge.  Obviously it could have stronger legs, if you go by TFA, but I think that's such an anomaly that it's not applicable in this situation.  Rogue One imo, if the film is good and casual fans like it, will hit a 3.25-3.3 multiplier.  If it doesn't resonate with casual fans, it could definitely go below three.  And that's not an indictment of the film.  It's more of a reality based on how big opening weekend films perform.  Even if you were to give it the 3.37 that TDK got, it needs a 133 million opening weekend.  But like TFA, TDK hit the zeitgeist.  That film did everything right and people came to it over and over again.  

 

SW fan base is huge no doubt.  But there are still plenty of people like me out there who are massive massive SW fans who don't have a lot of interest in this one. So I personally think 3.37 is too high.

 

So if you take out the Twilight films and the last Potter film, and Spider-man 3, because people kind of hated that one, and then you take the average of the remaining films, you have a multiplier under 3.  So for Rogue One to have a legitimate shot at 450, I believe it has to open to 150 million at least.  

 

Now some of you might think I'm just blowing hot air to make a case for myself.  But I'm not.  I'm using real data.  I'm not making up these numbers.  Because December is such a mystery to us, because we only have one massive film to open in December, that of course being TFA, it's hard to gauge what will happen.  I have nothing to back this up, but if I had to guess right now, imo, if Rogue One were to open to 150 million, I think it could pull a Catching Fire like multiplier and end with 420.  

 

So that's my rebuttal to all of your sneering posts towards me.  Some of you have been really condescending.  Look, most of us here have been following the box office for a very very long time.  I'm not always right, in fact this year I've been mostly wrong.  But before this year, I've been pretty good.  There's a very real possibility that I could be wrong this time too, of course.  But I have put a lot of thought into this and backed it up with some pretty good research.  I believe I'm right.  If I'm not, I'll congratulate all of you and given my speech of defeat.

 

But until the last dollar is counted, try not to be so dismissive of one person's opinion.

 

So here we are a year later and everything I wrote about Rogue One seems to fit with TLJ.  The only difference is we do have one more December film to rebuke this theory.  But Rogue One had a multiplier of 3.4, however it also opened 70 million less than TLJ.  So maybe, this is a combination of things, and not just that the wom is divisive or bad.  I believe if the wom was better on this film, then it would certainly have a multiplier north of 3.  But at the same time, there seems to be other factors at play as well.  As mentioned, there are a litany of other films that opened north of 140 million that did not get a 3 multiplier.  So I guess what I'm saying is that the wom is a problem for sure but perhaps expecting the film to do 3.3 or higher for a multiplier wasn't realistic to begin with.  Or maybe I'm totally wrong, like I was last time and it really is the wom that is the problem.  

 

I just thought this was interesting.

 

Very good stuff Baumer. 👍👍

 

 

[Taruseth]

23 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

So here is an interesting analysis I had of Rogue One's potential.  This is when I was analyzing why R1 might not get a 3X.  You can basically replace Rogue One in the post with TLJ, and maybe it's all coming true, only a year later and a movie later.  For those of us, and I include myself here because I believe the last jedi is suffering from mixed wom, here is an interesting piece on films that have opened to north of 140 million.

 

 

From last year:

 

 

For those of you who are positive that strong presales means this is going to pass 450, here's my rebuttal.

 

SW has a loonie dedicated fan base.  I should know.  I'm part of it.  So this fan base is going to snap up tickets for the first weekend.  I've never had any doubts that this would have a huge opening weekend.  My initial prediction in the first post was 125 million.  Lets say for argument sake that this has a 150 million OW.  In your eyes, this means 450 is crushed and it will more than likely go over 500 and push for 600.  And that is a fair assumption, basing it on multipliers in December.  Here's the problem with that thought process.  There's been 16 movies to open to 140 million.  Of those 16 only one of course was in December, and that was TFA.  We'll get to that film in just a second.  

 

Of the other 15 films, the three best multipliers belong to 1) The Dark Knight with 3.37, 2) Jurassic World at 3.13 and Avengers at 3.0.  True none of these are December films but we have 16 films to work with where none of them that opened to more than 140 million hit better than a 3.37X.  That means for Rogue One to hit 450 million, the minimum it would have to open to if you go by history is 133.5 million.  And that's going by the high end of multipliers.  If you look at a couple of other films, you have a 2.68 for Catching Fire, 2.4 for AOE and 2.8 for TDKR.

 

So that brings us to TFA.  Yes, it got a 3.77 multiplier, by far the biggest and best multiplier of any film that opened to more than 140 million.  But we all know that TFA hit the zeitgeist.  That had Han Solo and Chewie and the Millenium Falcon and Luke and Leia and so much SW mythology and it was the antithesis to what the prequels were.  It gave us fans everything we wanted and it blew the doors off of everyone's expectations.  Rogue One has no chance of opening this big and IMHO it does not have a chance at that kind of multiplier.  It is a spin off and yes it connects the story but we have 15 other films that opened to massive numbers and none of them managed a 3.5 multiplier.  

 

The bigger a film opens, usually the smaller multiplier it has.  Again, the golden nugget dangling in front of all of you is TFA but can we all agree that it did everything right?  It was a perfect storm of anticipation, some apathy towards the prequels, re-uniting the main three from the originals, a cool villain, and so much more.  It was just perfect in every sense.  

 

So now we have the massive SW fan base snatching up tickets for the first weekend.  Is this is a shock?  No.  Rogue One is going to, even if it just opens to "just" 125 million crush the previous non SW December record by about 50%.  So it's going to be a huge opener.  But the bigger it opens, the lower the multiplier will be.  IMO, you can't expect a film that opens to 130-150 million to have massive legs.  A 3X would be huge.  Obviously it could have stronger legs, if you go by TFA, but I think that's such an anomaly that it's not applicable in this situation.  Rogue One imo, if the film is good and casual fans like it, will hit a 3.25-3.3 multiplier.  If it doesn't resonate with casual fans, it could definitely go below three.  And that's not an indictment of the film.  It's more of a reality based on how big opening weekend films perform.  Even if you were to give it the 3.37 that TDK got, it needs a 133 million opening weekend.  But like TFA, TDK hit the zeitgeist.  That film did everything right and people came to it over and over again.  

 

SW fan base is huge no doubt.  But there are still plenty of people like me out there who are massive massive SW fans who don't have a lot of interest in this one. So I personally think 3.37 is too high.

 

So if you take out the Twilight films and the last Potter film, and Spider-man 3, because people kind of hated that one, and then you take the average of the remaining films, you have a multiplier under 3.  So for Rogue One to have a legitimate shot at 450, I believe it has to open to 150 million at least.  

 

Now some of you might think I'm just blowing hot air to make a case for myself.  But I'm not.  I'm using real data.  I'm not making up these numbers.  Because December is such a mystery to us, because we only have one massive film to open in December, that of course being TFA, it's hard to gauge what will happen.  I have nothing to back this up, but if I had to guess right now, imo, if Rogue One were to open to 150 million, I think it could pull a Catching Fire like multiplier and end with 420.  

 

So that's my rebuttal to all of your sneering posts towards me.  Some of you have been really condescending.  Look, most of us here have been following the box office for a very very long time.  I'm not always right, in fact this year I've been mostly wrong.  But before this year, I've been pretty good.  There's a very real possibility that I could be wrong this time too, of course.  But I have put a lot of thought into this and backed it up with some pretty good research.  I believe I'm right.  If I'm not, I'll congratulate all of you and given my speech of defeat.

 

But until the last dollar is counted, try not to be so dismissive of one person's opinion.

 

So here we are a year later and everything I wrote about Rogue One seems to fit with TLJ.  The only difference is we do have one more December film to rebuke this theory.  But Rogue One had a multiplier of 3.4, however it also opened 70 million less than TLJ.  So maybe, this is a combination of things, and not just that the wom is divisive or bad.  I believe if the wom was better on this film, then it would certainly have a multiplier north of 3.  But at the same time, there seems to be other factors at play as well.  As mentioned, there are a litany of other films that opened north of 140 million that did not get a 3 multiplier.  So I guess what I'm saying is that the wom is a problem for sure but perhaps expecting the film to do 3.3 or higher for a multiplier wasn't realistic to begin with.  Or maybe I'm totally wrong, like I was last time and it really is the wom that is the problem.  

 

I just thought this was interesting.

Good Analysis, but I think the fact that RO had a 3.4 multiplier makes TLJ potential one of 2.9 look a lot worse. Okay one could look at this and say 2.9 (it would need $638M ($627M for 2.85)) it would be the the 6th best (after TFA, RO, TDK, JW, TA and four out of this five were a really big event)).

I think it most likely will be a mix, the bad WOM definitely plays a important role in this.

I think IX might get a better multiplier than TLJ, especially if JJ Abrams is able to find a way to make a good movie without ignoring TLJ.

[filmlover]

I'm already ready for The Last Jedi to be out of theaters so we can stop having the same arguments over its box office numbers every single day.

[boomboom234]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm already ready for The Last Jedi to be out of theaters so we can stop having the same arguments over its box office numbers every single day.

Let Star Wars die kill it if you have to

[Lordmandeep]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm already ready for The Last Jedi to be out of theaters so we can stop having the same arguments over its box office numbers every single day.

 

 

Lol there is like no big movie coming out till Black Panther though 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Lol there is like no big movie coming out till Black Panther though 

And your point is?...

 

Blockbusters aren't the only movies in the world worth discussing, ya know.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

I'm already ready for The Last Jedi to be out of theaters so we can stop having the same arguments over its box office numbers every single day.

 

Unfortunately this conversation will continue because SW is the biggest film property in NA by far, so naturally it's going to be dissected over and over again.

[Lordmandeep]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

And your point is?...

 

Blockbusters aren't the only movies in the world worth discussing, ya know.

 

 

Forum be a boring place without them though 

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

And your point is?...

 

Blockbusters aren't the only movies in the world worth discussing, ya know.

 

You don’t understand, a movie isn’t worth discussing or seeing in theaters unless it has a budget of 200M.  Pirate any movie with a budget less than that.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

And your point is?...

 

Blockbusters aren't the only movies in the world worth discussing, ya know.

 

Agreed.  But this is a site about box office and it's the big enchilada right now.....sooooo....

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Forum be a boring place without them though 

It wouldn't but hey, you do you.

[Lordmandeep]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

You don’t understand, a movie isn’t worth discussing or seeing in theaters unless it has a budget of 200M.  Pirate any movie with a budget less than that.

 

 

or wait till netflix?