New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, MaxAggressor said:

Great call TwoMisfits. You are definitely one of my favorite posters on BOT, right up there with Barnack at the top. 

 

So MT.com fluctuations throughout the day is an excellent indicator of where the daily numbers might end up at.  Then you'll be able to extrapolate TLJ & Jumanji's Sunday figure w.r.t each other as well. I'm looking forward to your next update. Gonna be so much fun.

Thanks, Max!  That's a heckuva nice post with which to wake up...I promise I'll try to not lead you too far astray in the future (but be aware, my predicting skills are much worse than my projecting ones:)...

 

And MT.com isn't always this helpful, but for these 2 movies, it seems dead on for once...that may change once the holidays end, but it's fun while it lasts:)...

Edited December 31, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, aabattery said:

When I'm in 2018 and everyone else on BOT is still in 2017:

 

 

Happy new year!

Happy New Year to you, too!:)  May 2018 be a great year for you (and all the folks on here:)...

[RyneOh1040]

Yeah I think for me, at this point, I'm over defending or discussing the fact that because 'ComScore' (whatever the hell it is) and CinemaScore say so, WOM isn't mixed.  The numbers have reflected that since OW and some of you have given credit to other variables (runtime, Jumanji overperfromance) while refusing to acknowledge it.  It's bad analysis and if we can't agree on it it's not something worth discussing anymore.

 

As for Jumanji, I think one thing we often forget here in this bubble is the GA appeal of actors like The Rock and Kevin Hart.  The film is a lot of fun and the perfect holiday option but it can't be understated that these are two of the biggest draws right now in a crowd-pleasing, PG13 film.  Gotta give credit where credit is due and the two of them (between their social media antics) and understanding of their crowd base is getting people in seats.

[Brainbug]

Sadly, if Jumanji does overtake TLJ this or next weekend or any weekend after that, it wont get the record as highest-grossing movie to never hit No 1 on a weekend

[grey ghost]

The Rock must honestly have one of the best agents in Hollywood.

 

He could've easily become another washed up direct to video action star, instead he's one of the few, legit, A listers in Hollywood.

[Lordmandeep]

To suggest Run time and Jumanji are the only negatives towards TLJ is just picking and choosing of facts.

 

If WOM is not the best, some person who watches TFA may skip it and wait for Netflix or a fan wont see it 2-3 times. 

[grey ghost]

35 minutes ago, filmlover said:

And your point is?...

 

Blockbusters aren't the only movies in the world worth discussing, ya know.

How much can you debate Shape of Water or Great Showman's run?

 

For like 2 minutes?

 

 

Edited December 31, 2017 by grey ghost

[Noctis]

All I have to say is that EmpireCity's incessant attacks on anyone who said TLJ had mixed WOM has flown right into his face the past week. Anyone who denies that TLJ has mixed WOM on a broad scale is kidding themselves.

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

To suggest Run time and Jumanji are the only negatives towards TLJ is just picking and choosing of facts.

 

If WOM is not the best, some person who watches TFA may skip it and wait for Netflix or a fan wont see it 2-3 times. 

 

Avatar was 10 minutes longer and faced much tougher competition. 

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2017&wknd=51&p=.htm

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2009&wknd=52&p=.htm

 

 

[That One Girl]

Just now, grey ghost said:

How much can you debate Shape of Water or Great Showman's run?

 

For like 2 minutes?

 

 

 

Is Greatest Showman a hit?  It has an 84M budget, but is having excellent holds and will likely get to 100M.  However, its overseas numbers could be weak.

 

How well will Shape of Water do post-Oscar noms?  Could it near 50M or 100M, or will its subject matter be too off putting for some?

 

Two topics for each of said films that I thought of at the top of my head.  If you think each of those can only hold two minutes worth of debating, I don’t know what to tell you.

[filmlover]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Is Greatest Showman a hit?  It has an 84M budget, but is having excellent holds and will likely get to 100M.  However, its overseas numbers could be weak.

 

How well will Shape of Water do post-Oscar noms?  Could it near 50M or 100M, or will its subject matter be too off putting for some?

 

Two topics for each of said films that I thought of at the top of my head.  If you think each of those can only hold two minutes worth of debating, I don’t know what to tell you.

lol seriously. Just because movies are doing well but not making Star Wars money doesn't mean they aren't worth talking about at all. If anything, they leave more room for discussion (since The Last Jedi is still making an insane amount of money as is).

[Blaze Heatnix]

TLJ's user score on metacritic is now at 4.6... lol

[Lordmandeep]

 

[baumer]

6 minutes ago, Noctis said:

All I have to say is that EmpireCity's incessant attacks on anyone who said TLJ had mixed WOM has flown right into his face the past week. Anyone who denies that TLJ has mixed WOM on a broad scale is kidding themselves.

 

Prove it. Prove that the word of mouth is mixed. But don't use any reviews from Facebook, the Internet Movie Database, Twitter, or your friend's opinions, or anyone here at this site, or Instagram or rotten tomatoes or Google reviews or anything else that you can get access to online. Somehow those don't seem to matter to Empire. I'm not sure where he wants us to get this proof If he downplays all the ones that I just mentioned. That's what makes him a delusional person.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

Is Greatest Showman a hit?  It has an 84M budget, but is having excellent holds and will likely get to 100M.  However, its overseas numbers could be weak.

 

How well will Shape of Water do post-Oscar noms?  Could it near 50M or 100M, or will its subject matter be too off putting for some?

 

Two topics for each of said films that I thought of at the top of my head.  If you think each of those can only hold two minutes worth of debating, I don’t know what to tell you.

Greatest Showman is the 2nd movie this week that seems to be on the WOM train, although a smaller one...it had a disastrous opening of $8.8M (even with Xmas Eve, this was kinda disastrous for its movie type), but it's definitely recovering some from that original weakness, even more than a holiday week might give with that opening (I mean, Sweeney Todd only made it to $52M with that type of opening, and I think TGS should pass that easily pretty soon).  

 

It's likely gonna run into The Star problem, though...when you open that weak, even if you have enormous legs, you still can only get to so much money...and unlike The Star, its budget isn't as easy to overcome and double... 

[Lordmandeep]

Star Wars is the biggest domestic box office hit in 2 years and the film has harshly divided fans and viewers.

 

I think it sort of is more interesting then typical Oscar bait makes 20-100 million over the Holidays. 

[grey ghost]

8 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Is Greatest Showman a hit?  It has an 84M budget, but is having excellent holds and will likely get to 100M.  However, its overseas numbers could be weak.

 

How well will Shape of Water do post-Oscar noms?  Could it near 50M or 100M, or will its subject matter be too off putting for some?

 

Two topics for each of said films that I thought of at the top of my head.  If you think each of those can only hold two minutes worth of debating, I don’t know what to tell you.

Lmao, you pretty much covered the most compelling aspects of their run in a few seconds.

[Noctis]

1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Prove it. Prove that the word of mouth is mixed. But don't use any reviews from Facebook, the Internet Movie Database, Twitter, or your friend's opinions, or anyone here at this site, or Instagram or rotten tomatoes or Google reviews or anything else that you can get access to online. Somehow those don't seem to matter to Empire. I'm not sure where he wants us to get this proof If he downplays all the ones that I just mentioned. That's what makes him a delusional person.

[RyneOh1040]

3 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Prove it. Prove that the word of mouth is mixed. But don't use any reviews from Facebook, the Internet Movie Database, Twitter, or your friend's opinions, or anyone here at this site, or Instagram or rotten tomatoes or Google reviews or anything else that you can get access to online. Somehow those don't seem to matter to Empire. I'm not sure where he wants us to get this proof If he downplays all the ones that I just mentioned. That's what makes him a delusional person.

Yeah, I tried to talk to him about it and I appreciated his responses but to care so much about empirical data I feel like he's just looking at Cinemascore/Comscore and reading the room completely wrong.  Can't see the forest-type thing.

Edited December 31, 2017 by RyneOh1040

[The Futurist]

Reap Sta War.

1977-2017