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WrathOfHan's Controversial 2018 Box Office Predictions

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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FUCK THE STUDIOS AND THEIR SCHEDULE CHANGES

A Quiet Place: With The New Mutants moving, April just lost one horror movie. I’m bumping legs up a tiny bit. 35/125 (3.57x)

 

Truth or Dare: Now that it is opening on Friday the 13th, a repeat of Happy Death Day is likely. 25/55 (2.2x)

 

Tully: I actually forgot to predict this one. Oops! This is Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody’s first collaboration in 8 years since Young Adult, which didn’t quite light the box office on fire. Trailer views are very small on this one, so it needs some strong reviews to break out. Given Reitman’s recent history, I’ll remain conservative. 6/15 (2.5x)

 

Avengers: Infinity War: Welp, that Deadpool move screwed any chance of this having higher than a 2.5x. I’ll keep legs at that bar, but gone are the days of 2.6x+ being possible. 225/562.5 (2.5x)

 

Breaking In: Universal is going for that ScreenGems “money”! This is exactly the type of movie Sony would release. Trailer views are VERY good for this one as it’s at 2.3M views after three days. Reviews are bound to suck, but perhaps this comes close to No Good Deed. 20/45 (2.25x)

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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May 19

Slenderman: YOU KNOW HIS NAME. NOW, SEE THE ORIGIN NOBODY ASKED FOR! This movie has three big things going against it. One, the trailer is confusing as fuck and makes no goddamn sense. Two, this is coming after all of April’s horror movies, all of which are bound to be of much better quality. Finally, it’s now releasing against Deadpool. Sony is basically fucked with this date unless they take June 1 (please don’t). That said, being a Slenderman movie should at least draw some interest on OW. 15/35 (2.33x)

 

Untitled Deadpool Sequel: Superhero sequels have been on a bit of an upswing lately. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 increased over 50M from its predecessor, and Thor: Ragnarok managed to increase over 50%! On the other hand, you have stuff like Justice League that drops nearly a third from its predecessor. The Bob Ross trailer generated a lot of excitement and buzz online, and why wouldn’t it have? That trailer firmly put me in the increase camp (I was already there to begin with). However, I don’t think this new release date is particularly strong. Back on June 1, it had no direct competition for three weeks. Here, it faces Solo the following weekend and releases two weeks after Infinity War. Fox should have kept it on June 1 (and not just because it’s my birthday). Regardless of release date, I think this is coming in for a nice increase. 150/410 (2.73x)

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tonga Straight-to-DVD

tonga

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1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

May 19

Slenderman: YOU KNOW HIS NAME. NOW, SEE THE ORIGIN NOBODY ASKED FOR! This movie has three big things going against it. One, the trailer is confusing as fuck and makes no goddamn sense. Two, this is coming after all of April’s horror movies, all of which are bound to be of much better quality. Finally, it’s now releasing against Deadpool. Sony is basically fucked with this date unless they take June 1 (please don’t). That said, being a Slenderman movie should at least draw some interest on OW. 15/35 (2.33x)

 

Untitled Deadpool Sequel: Superhero sequels have been on a bit of an upswing lately. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 increased over 50M from its predecessor, and Thor: Ragnarok managed to increase over 50%! On the other hand, you have stuff like Justice League that drops nearly a third from its predecessor. The Bob Ross trailer generated a lot of excitement and buzz online, and why wouldn’t it have? That trailer firmly put me in the increase camp (I was already there to begin with). However, I don’t think this new release date is particularly strong. Back on June 1, it had no direct competition for three weeks. Here, it faces Solo the following weekend and releases two weeks after Infinity War. Fox should have kept it on June 1 (and not just because it’s my birthday). Regardless of release date, I think this is coming in for a nice increase. 150/410 (2.73x)

I don't feel the excitement here to be quite honest. 

 

Very nice analysis by the way, I look forward to seeing more from you.

 

Slenderman is 5 years too late, skip.

 

Deadpool, just not feeling it. Not much buzz, excitement and it comes two weeks after IW (225-->110M--->audience overlap) so they will cannibalize each other like Thor did JL. It also comes a week before solo so any hope of it passing 400M is gone. I'd say SS/BvS/SM:H is more likely but I could be wrong.

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MrGamer Blockbuster

MrGamer

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4 minutes ago, tonga said:

I don't feel the excitement here to be quite honest. 

 

Very nice analysis by the way, I look forward to seeing more from you.

 

Slenderman is 5 years too late, skip.

 

Deadpool, just not feeling it. Not much buzz, excitement and it comes two weeks after IW (225-->110M--->audience overlap) so they will cannibalize each other like Thor did JL. It also comes a week before solo so any hope of it passing 400M is gone. I'd say SS/BvS/SM:H is more likely but I could be wrong.

Hi raegr!

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nick64 Indie Sensation

nick64

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One thing benefitting the first Deadpool was its position as a Valentine’s Day option for those not wanting to see a cheesy romance. Summer doesn’t have that, so I don’t see walk-ins being as strong. That said, it had enough of a fanbase growth on home video (kinda like Guardians) that I still see it just about matching the original overall.

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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May 26

Solo: A Star Wars Story: Here is a prediction many of you have been waiting for! Solo is the second Star Wars spinoff after Rogue One, though excitement is nowhere near the level of that. We’re all familiar with the behind the scenes nightmares, but they lead to serious quality concerns. Because of how long reshoots are taking, we still don’t have a trailer, and one won’t be dropping until Black Panther is out in a month. That only gives Disney three and a half months to build up buzz for this! It does not help that this is coming after The Last Jedi, a film with godawful legs for the holidays. Many feel this is a highly unnecessary film, and Harrison Ford is Han Solo to a lot of people. This movie likely would have been much more successful if it was released a few months later, but because it is sticking to Memorial Day, late legs will be impossible with the onslaught of summer releases. If it drops from TLJ similarly from TFA to RO, that gets it to around 350M, but given this is releasing in the summer and not over Christmas, that drop could be much worse. I think this will be the movie that makes Disney seriously reconsider their gameplan for Star Wars. 110/130/290 (2.23x from 4 day/2.64x from 3 day)

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

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Wack.

 

I'd wager that Solo will have better legs than Last Jedi. Deadpool is now coming out before it, which will hurt the film overall, but I could see it doing about 140 for the long weekend, only slightly higher than your prediction. It's got 3 weeks to itself (Oceans 8 but I don't think that'll be a threat) until Incredibles. Now, I2 I think will be MASSIVE. But Last Jedi just proved that Star Wars can still do 600M+ in the wake of a break-out potential 400M family grosser. 

 

Basically IMO, Solo would have to go below 100 for the 3-day in order to miss 300IMO.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

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1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

 we still don’t have a trailer, and one won’t be dropping until Black Panther is out in a month.

Trailer is coming out sooner than that, FWIW.

 

But great to see another person on the Doom and Gloom train.  Just means should it get past 350 it'll be far harder for people to say it didn't reach expectations. RebWGyw.png

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