Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

MoviePass holders still make up a tiny minority of film-goers. We're not at a point where movies only succeed because of MoviePass.

No, but at 1.5M movie goers, they make up more than "tiny" now...and when the difference between "great" and "subpar" opening is $10M either way, they make up a huge difference now...

 

And the mental calculus of the holders makes up a bigger one - why pay for you and your kid to see a movie when you could see every other movie solo for free (and just Redbox your kid's movie in a few weeks)...

 

It's gonna kill kid-only skewing movies...

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Appeal of different movies to MoviePass holders...

Paddington - zero...

 

Movies with zero appeal to these holders are gonna get torched...this is just the 1st one until those Family Passes come out...

If the movie would have not played with that audience regardless of the existance of the movie pass, is it not a bit irrelevant for them, loosing screens you think ?

 

1.5m, is around what, 0.6% of the movie going audience and 3.75% of the frequent movie going audience.

 

Except for very specific case, I am a bit unsure what kind of global impact it can have with those numbers, even if a giant amount of them say 50% go see a movie this weekend instead of 20% if the pass would not have existed, split among 5 non-Paddington movie we are talking about 770-850k more at the box office for those.

[dxmatrixdt]

11 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

Btw, consider this.

 

Avg ticket price = $8.93

800 people per location for Jumanji

3,849 locations

 

($8.93)(3,849locations)(800/location) = $27,497,256

 

Jumanji could have a 3-day weekend looking like this

192 people per location avg on Friday would be 3x the Wednesday number which is in line with the 3.3x and 2.7x of films marketed for younger audiences. 

350 people per location avg on Saturday would be 3/4 that from last Saturday and would be a 82.3% increase. 

258 people per location avg on Sunday would be the number acquired when seeking out 800 people per location for the entire weekend

800(weekend) - 350(Sat) - 192(Fri) = 258 Sun.  This would be a 26.3% drop. 

 

If Sundays +50% from Friday for Jumanji, and in this scenario, 1.02 million could be add to weekend gross. 

 

Maybe last week's 37 million result will want to be duplicated for 4-day.  A 10 million Sunday might emerge out of a 28M+ weekend and could lead to 9 for Monday for 37 million 4-day weekend.  It could have a fifth weekend of anywhere from 14 - 17.5 million.  It could shed approx 350 location counts for 3500 for the weekend and get around $4,500 PTA next weekend.

 

Does anyone know if IMAX and other premium options will be showing anything other than Star Wars and Jumanji next week.  Jumanji is in week 4 and it will have to probably shed alot from the sum of it's theater counts with emerging product.  The new military movie might get the premiums. 

[B D Joe]

My theater has a huge New Mutants poster.

[aabattery]

1.5M isn't nothing, but you're not gonna get all 1.5M of them going out every weekend. It's a huge reach to act like those 1.5M have completely changed the way people go to the movies.

[Mojoguy]

My theater has a huge New Mutants poster.

With the old release date?

[Jonwo]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Now I'm thinking Paddington should have moved to April. Would have had a pretty open family market and time for a proper campaign. 

I wonder if WB couldn't contractually, they don't own the movie and I imagine Studiocanal as part of the sale to WB probably had to keep the same release date and given it's already out OS, moving later would have been hurt it even more.

 

It's already made $133m OS and a third Paddington film is going to happen either way, the US release is gravy at this point for Studiocanal

 

 

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, aabattery said:

1.5M isn't nothing, but you're not gonna get all 1.5M of them going out every weekend. It's a huge reach to act like those 1.5M have completely changed the way people go to the movies.

And it is kinda nothing in the grand scheme of things when you realize that's only $13m worth of tickets for any given movie using average ticket price. Even if you want to argue the average ticket price for them should be something like $12 because they no longer care about matinees or discount Tuesday, that's still only around an extra $18m in play for any given movie assuming full saturation of the MP subscriber base. Which is reduced down further because all of that money isn't "extra" money, there's always some who would be seeing said movie with or without MP. 

Edited January 12, 2018 by MovieMan89

[DAJK]

3 minutes ago, aabattery said:

1.5M isn't nothing, but you're not gonna get all 1.5M of them going out every weekend. It's a huge reach to act like those 1.5M have completely changed the way people go to the movies.

Guaranteed even if all 1.5M of them watched Insidious last weekend, they definitely won't all be the crowd also using their MoviePass for Paddington this weekend. 1.5M is still only like 0.4 percent of the entire domestic box office population.

[Jonwo]

22 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I'm just hoping Post gets an insane 6-7x multiplier, so that my club can still succeed without RPO having to bomb 

That would require it winning awards and having Lincoln like legs which seems unlikely. It's still a good OW for The Post considering it's been in limited release for almost three weeks. 

[KC7]

"Fox’s The Greatest Showman also showing great sustainability with $3.2m today, 3 day of  $11.2m and a 4-day of $13.6M taking its running cume to $96.4M."

 

 

So it should hit $100M by next Friday, and maybe 200M WW not long after. Truly impressive.

Edited January 12, 2018 by KC7

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, aabattery said:

1.5M isn't nothing, but you're not gonna get all 1.5M of them going out every weekend. It's a huge reach to act like those 1.5M have completely changed the way people go to the movies.

They are 1.5M almost all new holders...they will all be there this weekend by average, since many will be there 2-4 times to make up for the 0.  This is not a program in its maintenance phase - it's growing...and 500K people just got cards in the last 2 weeks.

 

If they go once, that's $21M of the overall weekend box office.  What is it normally for this weekend?  Between $160-$200M total?  That's not a "tiny" percent anymore...

Edited January 12, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[MovieMan89]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

They are 1.5M almost all new holders...they will all be there this weekend by average, since many will be there 2-4 times to make up for the 0.  This is not a program in its maintenance phase - it's growing...and 500K people just got cards in the last 2 weeks.

 

If they go once, that's $21M of the overall weekend box office.  What is it normally for this weekend?  Between $140-$200M total?  That's not a "tiny" percent anymore...

Your logic that there's all these people going 2-4 times a weekend is extremely flawed. I highly doubt anyone besides the most diehard movie fanatic is going 4x a weekend. A large chunk of the subscriber base probably goes 2-4 times a month, which is already more than enough to get your money's worth. The vast majority of people aren't so movie crazed with so much free time that they're going to be at the theater 4x a week just because they can be. 

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, aabattery said:

1.5M isn't nothing, but you're not gonna get all 1.5M of them going out every weekend. It's a huge reach to act like those 1.5M have completely changed the way people go to the movies.

Comparing end of 2017 and 2018 "shift" in performance for certain type of movie in their Box office ratio between Canada and USA could show the size of the impact (Canada not having got movie pass yet), I imagine.

 

But even if movie pass users went from 16 movie a year to 30 movie a year in average (and say 12 to 22 in weekends), that would on a giving weekend 0.288m more people buying ticket during an average weekend.

 

0.288m among say 5 movies at a 8.5$ the ticket (because the higher average ticket IMAX type/3D is not accepted), that a 490k average boost for that top 5 movies popular among pass holder, that is big for some movie obviously, but not shifting stuff for most release.

[Mojoguy]

Does anyone know if IMAX and other premium options will be showing anything other than Star Wars and Jumanji next week. Jumanji is in week 4 and it will have to probably shed alot from the sum of it's theater counts with emerging product. The new military movie might get the premiums.

I doubt it. I mean 12 Strong and Den of Thieves don't seem like worthy IMAX movies. Jumanji has a lot of eye candy visuals to make people want to pay more to see it on a bigger screen. It also has only been on IMAX starting this weekend since TLJ was hogging all the best screens before this week. Jum should have another good weekend next week as well.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Your logic that there's all these people going 2-4 times a weekend is extremely flawed. I highly doubt anyone besides the most diehard movie fanatic is going 4x a weekend. A large chunk of the subscriber base probably goes 2-4 times a month, which is already more than enough to get your money's worth. The vast majority of people aren't so movie crazed with so much free time that they're going to be at the theater 4x a week just because they can be. 

It's a holiday weekend - few will be 0...if there are, they are made up for by super users just getting the card and "catching up"...

 

It's also a program that doesn't ding you for weekdays vs weekends, so the largest use will be weekends...

 

Look, keep watching as the weeks roll by.  I know many of you don't buy what I'm pitching, but the proof will be in the numbers...over and over and over...

 

Until we have a MoviePass family pass, movies set up to be strictly for a kid audience with nothing appealing to adults, will be getting skewered...

 

 

Edited January 12, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[The Panda]

The Post isn’t overly exciting material for the GA, plus I could see it having backlash with conservative movie goers due to Streep and the big media angle.

[MovieMan89]

I say until we see a noticeable uptick in the average multi for movies across the board, MP isn't having any notable effect. And no, Jumanji and TGS on their own aren't enough to argue that multis have increased on average. 

[aabattery]

Going to the movies at all is a huge time sink.

 

Going twice in the same weekend is even more, once you get past that it's getting ridiculous. People straight up don't have time for that shit.

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

I doubt it. I mean 12 Strong and Den of Thieves don't seem like worthy IMAX movies. Jumanji has a lot of eye candy visuals to make people want to pay more to see it on a bigger screen. It also has only been on IMAX starting this weekend since TLJ was hogging all the best screens before this week. Jum should have another good weekend next week as well.

12 Strong is getting IMAX next week. FWIW TLJ has totally lost IMAX in Orlando; The Commuter is on 3/4 IMAXs while Jumanji has the other one. Pretty sure the only PLF it has left is the Dolby at Disney Springs where it's sharing with Jumanji

Edited January 12, 2018 by WrathOfHan