Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[Brainbug]

31 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

So far the other 3 movies that reached $200m opening also had incredible WOM fueling them to multipliers above 3. That's not something we should expect all the time for 200 openers going forward.

@Just Tele:

 

DOM OW:

3

Jurassic World

Uni.

$208,806,270

32.0%

4,274

$48,855

$652,270,625

6/12/2015

All-Time WW:

4

Jurassic World

Uni.

$1,671.7

$652.3

39.0%

$1,019.4

61.0%

2015

[FantasticBeasts]

Comparing holiday multipliers with pretty much multipliers in any other time of the year is wrong.

The equivalent of a x2.8 multiplier in christmas is let's say x2 in spring.

[Lordmandeep]

The issue is whether TLJ is the floor for the main Star Wars film though? 

 

 

Edited January 16, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[MovieMan89]

Just now, FantasticBeasts said:

Comparing holiday multipliers with pretty much multipliers in any other time of the year is wrong.

The equivalent of a x2.8 multiplier in christmas is let's say x2 in spring.

Maybe not that low, but it's highly unlikely TLJ could have managed anything better than a 2.3x as a summer release if it only pulled 2.8x in December. And no one would be able to defend that multi, regardless of OW. 

[RandomCat]

1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Comparing holiday multipliers with pretty much multipliers in any other time of the year is wrong.

The equivalent of a x2.8 multiplier in christmas is let's say x2 in spring.

It's also pretty wrong to compare 200+ openers to sub 100 openers.

[FantasticBeasts]

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

The issue is whether TLJ is the floor for the main Star Wars film though? 

 

 

...or maybe the ceiling?

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Comparing holiday multipliers with pretty much multipliers in any other time of the year is wrong.

The equivalent of a x2.8 multiplier in christmas is let's say x2 in spring.

 

I wouldn't say that low. It did open to 220 after all. That's an insanely big number starting out. Due to the holiday boost, I would compare TLJ's 2.8 multiplier to maybe Ultron's 2.4 multiplier or IM3's 2.35 multiplier.

[Barnack]

21 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

There's no scenario possible where TLJ could have outright "failed" at the box office. So can we please stop pretending that the fact that it's not a box office bomb is some great victory for it? $1.3b for a movie whose predecessor did over $2b will never be something to celebrate as some amazing achievement. 

Outside the OW that still show extreme high and special enthusiasm, it is true, nothing to celebrate (maybe Brazil and some particular market ?), at least not in general. No way that WW drop (at the BO and merchandise/video games) is not in the lower side of the expectation scenarios on Disney accounting sheet and in the positive side.

 

That said there is such a giant gap between a flop and a below-mediocre performance for the Force Awaken sequels.....

Edited January 16, 2018 by Barnack

[dudalb]

27 minutes ago, RandomYojimbo said:

It's interesting that a lot of those calling TLJ a "Flop" are over the top Cameron fanboys who fully expect Star Wars to die and for "Avatar" to take it's place......

[Lordmandeep]

My logic is TLJ got a massive opening as fan buzz was sky high due the many questions people had from TFA and the great buzz TFA and RO had on the SW brand. 

 

The reaction that people had to the TLJ, which if we are honest is not anything we really predicted or foresaw is the reason why the film did not 'easily fly past 700 million' which almost everyone thought it would do after its opening weekend. 

 

Edited January 16, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[FantasticBeasts]

What was the last movie to do a sub 3 multiplier over christmas?

I bet you won't find another one easily...

And YES i know you won't find another $200m opener so don't bother noting.

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I wouldn't say that low. It did open to 220 after all. That's an insanely big number starting out. Due to the holiday boost, I would compare TLJ's 2.8 multiplier to maybe Ultron's 2.4 multiplier or IM3's 2.35 multiplier.

Which are on the low end of mega opener multis. Only above BvS, SM3, and Twilight awful. 

[TwoMisfits]

These TLJ posts remind me that we really need a "troubled words" dictionary on this site for:

prediction vs projection

disappointment vs flop 

box office surprise vs box office success (not always the same:)

theaters, screens, and showings

 

And we probably also need an expectations board - so, when you expect Avengers 3 to make $600M, and someone else expects $400M, and it makes $500M, we can know one poster's disappointment is another's poster's surprise:)...

[MovieMan89]

TLJ left 300-400m on the table via the reception. I really don't think that's something to celebrate, but whatever. 

[Valonqar]

9 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

My logic is TLJ got a massive opening as fan buzz was sky high due the many questions people had from TFA and the great buzz TFA and RO had on the SW brand. 

 

The reaction that people had to the TLJ, which if we are honest is not anything we really predicted or foresaw is the reason why the film did not 'easily fly past 700 million' which almost everyone thought it would do after its opening weekend. 

 

TLJ trailer and marketing were also selling a different movie. They focused on by far the best parts and characters (Rey, Kylo, Luke, Snoke, the Force) but the movie was actually more about boring af Poe plot (including Finn's boring af side adventure). Which ended up being the most trashed about aspects of the movie. No wonder they were hidden from previews. 

Edited January 16, 2018 by Valonqar

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Which are on the low end of mega opener multis. Only above BvS, SM3, and Twilight awful. 

 

I don't think Disney is losing any sleep over it. If they opened it in the summer, it probably opens to 250 with an Ultron-ish 2.4 multiplier and finishes at 600. So they most likely came out ahead with the December release, same as we can reasonably say for TFA, Rogue One, Titanic, Avatar, and others that have cashed in big time over the year end holiday period.

[Arlborn]

5 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

What was the last movie to do a sub 3 multiplier over christmas?

I bet you won't find another one easily...

And YES i know you won't find another $200m opener so don't bother noting.

Its OW is an anomaly for December so it makes sense logically speaking that its legs would also be one.

 

Yes, I mentioned it.

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

What was the last movie to do a sub 3 multiplier over christmas?

I bet you won't find another one easily...

And YES i know you won't find another $200m opener so don't bother noting.

If you know the trick it will be easy

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=12&sort=percent&order=DESC&p=.htm

 

Point Break in 2015 I think

[RandomCat]

8 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

What was the last movie to do a sub 3 multiplier over christmas?

I bet you won't find another one easily...

And YES i know you won't find another $200m opener so don't bother noting.

So...cant note that we can't accurately predict what good legs for a 200+ opener in Dec looks like?

[meriodejaneiro]

13 minutes ago, dudalb said:

It's interesting that a lot of those calling TLJ a "Flop" are over the top Cameron fanboys who fully expect Star Wars to die and for "Avatar" to take it's place......

And I would dare to say some of "them" are even one ...