90th Academy Awards nominations

[Webslinger]

Some general thoughts:

 

- Huh, I've actually seen all the Best Picture nominees as of nomination day for the third year in a row (and only because I caught The Post and Phantom Thread back-to-back yesterday). Darkest Hour is a surprise I was hoping they would avoid (it's a solid enough movie, but Best Picture? Seriously?) and Phantom Thread is an intriguing surprise I didn't think they'd go for because of the late arrival and general strangeness (or PTA-ness) of the film itself. 

 

- PTA in directing is a big surprise. I think I had him as an alternate on my predictions (it was either him or Sean Baker - I guess the Florida Project fans weren't that large in number after all), but I was very confident in a 5/5 match with DGA, relative lack of precedent be damned. I'm very glad to see that Greta Gerwig made the cut - in addition to being an incredibly deserving nominee, I also can't imagine what a PR nightmare the Academy would have faced if they snubbed her in light of all the national attention on feminism this year. And it's cool that Christopher Nolan is finally an Oscar-nominated director.

 

- Best Actress is loaded. McDormand and Ronan are awesome, Hawkins is terrific, Streep is... okay, I guess (they've given her default nominations for less deserving material, and she has some nice, very nuanced scenes in The Post), and I'm assuming that Robbie is really good in I, Tonya (which isn't opening here this weekend, so I still have no idea when I'll actually see it). I'm still not sure how Jessica Chastain never took off for Molly's Game, though I'll admit that I'm at a loss to figure out who she would have bumped out.

 

- This has to be the most "meh" year for Best Actor in the decade-plus I've followed the awards circuit closely. Gary Oldman should cruise to a win, though I'd rather see it go to either Chalamet or Day-Lewis. Denzel Washington's nomination is a waste; the movie was a big letdown, the performance was good but nothing spectacular, and it's not like he was their one out from another OscarsSoWhite fiasco. I'm guessing some voters felt like they owed him another nod after not giving him the statuette for Fences last year? Daniel Kaluuya is a cool nominee, though I'm surprised that he's the only Get Out actor who gained any traction, especially with how weak Supporting Actress (where Allison Williams, Betty Gabriel, or Catherine Keener all would have made for hip, well-deserved picks) ended up being.

 

- Boo to the Holly Hunter snub in Supporting Actress, though Lesley Manville is an interesting choice in her presumed place. I think Octavia Spencer is an awesome, always-welcome presence in anything she's in, but her work in Shape of Water didn't quite feel nomination-worthy (her nominations here and for Hidden Figures last year just make her failure to gain any traction for Fruitvale Station all the more baffling, especially since it was only two years after her win). I'm glad that Mary J. Blige didn't suffer the same anti-Netflix bias that cost Idris Elba a nomination two years ago. I'm also surprised that we didn't hear a whisper abound her Mudbound co-star Carey Mulligan all season long; she would have been a terrific nominee as well (especially since they snubbed her for Shame six years ago, which I'd argue she should have won for). Laurie Metcalf is great in Lady Bird, though she's not going to beat Allison Janney.

 

- So they doubled down on Three Billboards and ignored Call Me by Your Name in Supporting Actor after all. I wonder whether the Three Billboards backlash might lead to a major upset here; after all, Rockwell's racist cop is bound to be a point of contention. The only question is: who would swoop in and win? The buzz for Dafoe hasn't been as high as anticipated earlier in the season, Harrelson is in the same movie, and Jenkins doesn't seem like he has the heat, so... Plummer as an anti-Spacey statement? I still think Rockwell is going to win, but he's the most vulnerable of the four frontrunners.

 

And the rest...

Spoiler

- Cool to see that Logan nabbed some screenwriting love, even if it's only because the category was uncharacteristically thin. Call Me by Your Name should win Adapted Screenplay in a walk.

 

- I'm happy to see that The Big Sick at least came away with the Original Screenplay nod. A win in this category represents the only realistic hope that Lady Bird or Get Out has at establishing the necessary support for a surprise Picture win.

 

- I was hoping Blade Runner 2049 would pick up at least five nominations, and it did. Now if only they had nominated it anywhere above the line as well...

 

- I'm really surprised that the sound categories matched 100%.

 

- I'm SO SO SO SO SO glad that Bright didn't make the cut in Makeup. It's admittedly the best aspect of a terrible movie, but still...

 

[Cmasterclay]

I am all for the Get Out love, which was expected,but just over the moon over the surprise Phantom Thread love. 

 

Also Richard Jenkins is the worst supporting actor in that movie by far, and I liked the movie alot so I ain't just hating. Shannon blows him out of the water. The love for that performance is inexplicable. 

[Cmasterclay]

Also, Academy Award nominee Kobe Bryant.

[MrPink]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I am all for the Get Out love, which was expected,but just over the moon over the surprise Phantom Thread love. 

 

Also Richard Jenkins is the worst supporting actor in that movie by far, and I liked the movie alot so I ain't just hating. Shannon blows him out of the water. The love for that performance is inexplicable. 

 

Shannon is ultimately too one note of a character in Shape of Water but man I'd love to see that Samson speech or pissing scene in a clip at the Oscars.

Edited January 23, 2018 by MrPink

[grim22]

 

[filmlover]

Shannon is deliciously hammy in The Shape of Water (that scene where he furiously has sex with his wife and puts his hand over her mouth telling her to stop talking has to be the most Michael Shannon thing to ever Michael Shannon) but that performance wasn't much of a stretch from past roles so I'm not surprised he never caught on. It's probably telling that his pair of nominations to date have been for two of the more sympathetic characters he's played.

[Durden]

For sure

 

 

[MrGamer]

I, for one, welcome Oscar-winner Boss Baby. 

[aabattery]

Best Actor is pretty good imo. So glad Kaluuya got in. He rules in Get Out.

 

I'm assuming DDL is good, but the only boring choice in there is Oldman. I haven't seen Darkest Hour yet, but I've seen the showy clips of him from the talk shows and what-not and I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. He seems terrible. Those glued-on cheeks shaking about doesn't help the matter. I'll probably watch the movie this weekend because my parents want to catch it so then I can officially declare his performance bad.

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

Best Actor is pretty good imo. So glad Kaluuya got in. He rules in Get Out.

 

I'm assuming DDL is good, but the only boring choice in there is Oldman. I haven't seen Darkest Hour yet, but I've seen the showy clips of him from the talk shows and what-not and I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. He seems terrible. Those glued-on cheeks shaking about doesn't help the matter. I'll probably watch the movie this weekend because my parents want to catch it so then I can officially declare his performance bad.

He looks and sounds just like Fat Bastard. Not good. Chalamet is fine. Denzel is the best so he's good even if it's not his best. Kayuula and DDL are terrific. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

Best Actor is pretty good imo. So glad Kaluuya got in.

 

I'm assuming DDl is good, but the only boring choice in there is Oldman. I haven't seen Darkest Hour yet, but I've seen the showy clips of him from the talk shows and what-not and I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. He seems terrible. Those glued-on cheeks shaking about doesn't help the matter. I'll probably watch the movie this weekend because my parents want to catch it so then I can officially declare his performance bad.

WILL YOU STOP INTERRUPTING ME WHILE I AM INTERRUPTING YOU?!

[RichWS]

Best part of watching the Shannon sex scene with Mom was having the same first name as his character.

[franfar]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/oscars-2018-early-predictions-nominations/

 

So 538 made predictions of who would win the major awards based on their nominations/wins for other awards. 

 

Best Actress could go to either McDormand, Ronan, or Hawkins.

Best Actor, they think Oldman is getting it.

Best Supporting Actor could go to either Rockwell or Dafoe.

Best Supporting Actress could go to either Janney or Metcalf.

Best Director is likely del Toro, but could go to Nolan.

Best Picture is either "The Shape of Water" or "Three Billboards"

[CoolioD1]

Just now, franfar said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/oscars-2018-early-predictions-nominations/

 

So 538 made predictions of who would win the major awards based on their nominations/wins for other awards. 

 

Best Actress could go to either McDormand, Ronan, or Hawkins.

Best Actor, they think Oldman is getting it.

Best Supporting Actor could go to either Rockwell or Dafoe.

Best Supporting Actress could go to either Janney or Metcalf.

Best Director is likely del Toro, but could go to Nolan.

Best Picture is either "The Shape of Water" or "Three Billboards"

these dumbbells i could make more definitive predictions mcdormand, oldman, rockwell and janney are all winning no alts.

[aabattery]

7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

He looks and sounds just like Fat Bastard. Not good. Chalamet is fine. Denzel is the best so he's good even if it's not his best. Kayuula and DDL are terrific. 

 

Praying for an upset in that category. Maybe all this hidden Phantom Thread love will be strong enough to push DDL to the top. Fingers crossed.

[franfar]

2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

these dumbbells i could make more definitive predictions mcdormand, oldman, rockwell and janney are all winning no alts.

Based on their scoring system, all of the ones you named are basically running away with it.

[Joel M]

Just saw them, pretty good across the board with some surprises.

 

 

The Hammer snub was the one that hurt the most, BUT MCDONAGH OUT. Big blow for since McDonagh isn't a movie star. SOW got all the nominations but it was expected for a movie that had so much heat for both technical and above-the-line categories, and Lady Bird and Get Out got all the nominations they should, maybe Get Out could get editing but it didn't. So no idea what's winning but I just don't see the Shape of Water that many assume will happen. It's a delightful movie but it's very strange for a consesus pick, I think a lot of ballots will have it near the bottom not because of frontrunner backlash but because of fish sex and spontaneous gruesome violence.

 

[CoolioD1]

my bad take is that if they had pushed hammer as a co lead (i mean he's first billed it's pretty easy to swing that) he would've had a better chance of a nomination i mean denzel got nominated for a movie nobody saw and nobody liked.

[filmlover]

I actually do feel bad for Hammer because he campaigned his ass off the entire season and was everywhere with Timmy promoting the film, so he should've easily rode his coattails to a nomination (I guess Plummer's narrative was too good to overcome for that last spot). Hopefully this leads to an exciting new direction for his career at least after years of not making it in mainstream fare, I never thought he had the kind of performance he gives in CMBYN in him until that movie.

Edited January 23, 2018 by filmlover

[aabattery]

5 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

my bad take is that if they had pushed hammer as a co lead (i mean he's first billed it's pretty easy to swing that) he would've had a better chance of a nomination i mean denzel got nominated for a movie nobody saw and nobody liked.

 

Denzel's afro game was much better than Hammer's though.