Top Gun Maverick | May 27, 2022 | Catch it in theaters...again on December 2nd! | Comes to Paramount+ on December 22!

[Ryan Reynolds]

3 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

Lmao the people who really want to get us hyped, like some kind of event film, about a sequel to a mediocre '80s movie (and I'm being easy here, because the original is actually TERRIBLE).

Good luck.
 

critics didn't care for it much in 1986 and that did not stop it from being the #1 movie of the year. This is a big event for people over 35, probably same demo of MI movies

Edited April 4, 2022 by Ryan Reynolds

[BruiseCruise]

I don't think middle aged people which is the demo for this give two shits about critics reviews

[John Marston]

18 hours ago, dudalb said:

It's not terrible, but it's not a classic either.

 

 

 

it is though. It is fondly remembered by audiences, sells well on home media, and was even inducted into the Library of Congress National Film Registry. It fits all the definitions of a classic

[Kalo]

On 4/1/2022 at 3:42 AM, Pinacolada said:

I agree for the most part. I've always found it odd people being iffy on this. It's such a slam dunk.

 

The only thing that has me worried is the multiple starts and stops in terms of the marketing. Just worries me that it may have a The King's Man "Didn't this already come out?" syndrome. 

 

The difference I suppose is that this will actually probably be good and is something I think people are interested in

 

Wasn't this suppose to come out in 2020 originally ? it's been delayed for like 2 years. I mean yeah it probably still gonna due over $100m. but being delayed that much seems to due more hurt then help. 

 

Think Black Widow would have easily hit $300m had it not been delayed. but that had Diseny+ plus issues to deal with as well.  

 

 

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, Kalo said:

 

Wasn't this suppose to come out in 2020 originally ? it's been delayed for like 2 years. I mean yeah it probably still gonna due over $100m. but being delayed that much seems to due more hurt then help. 

 

Think Black Widow would have easily hit $300m had it not been delayed. but that had Diseny+ plus issues to deal with as well.  

 

 

This was actually originally supposed to be out in July of 2019 (it began shooting in May 2018) until post-production work resulted in it being delayed another year (all pre-COVID, of course).

[TylerG]

UK premiere May 19.

 

 

[Maggie]

I just don’t think people are interested. Young men definitely don’t care. They have their Marvel products to enjoy. The only target demo which may turn up is older men, but they won’t be enough to save it. Under or around 100M is a real posibility

[Cmasterclay]

7 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I just don’t think people are interested. Young men definitely don’t care. They have their Marvel products to enjoy. The only target demo which may turn up is older men, but they won’t be enough to save it. Under or around 100M is a real posibility

I agree there is a chance that it doesn't hit 100 million opening weekend, though I think it comes very close.

 

I'm predicting 80m for the opening three days and 100m+ for the four day. My no guts no glory of the summer season.

[CJohn]

I think this won't do 100M in total tbh.

[Maggie]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I agree there is a chance that it doesn't hit 100 million opening weekend, though I think it comes very close.

 

I'm predicting 80m for the opening three days and 100m+ for the four day. My no guts no glory of the summer season.

But how? Where’s the hype? Trailer likes are extremly low even for a movie targeting an older demo. 

[ThomasNicole]

21 minutes ago, Maggie said:

But how? Where’s the hype? Trailer likes are extremly low even for a movie targeting an older demo. 

They're not, not the older trailers, they did very well. 

 

The only reason likes and views are lower on the final trailer is because this is the 4th big vídeo they drop for this movie in the past 3 years, it's common for likes and views getting lower each trailer.

 

And even considering this the 4th trailer, it did well on general. It made 10M views on twitter on it's first day, where users are usually younger. 17M views on YouTube it's also far from a bad result, even with the lower likes than the previous trailers.

 

I'm not saying this is locked to be a success or something like that, but this "oh younger people don't care and there's no buzz" sounds way more just your own opinion than something based on actual data, marketing is fine.

Edited April 7, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[excel1]

This would have been one of there most hype films of all time had it opened anywhere between 1990 and 2004. But in 2022???

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

I just don’t think people are interested. Young men definitely don’t care. They have their Marvel products to enjoy. The only target demo which may turn up is older men, but they won’t be enough to save it. Under or around 100M is a real posibility

 

You are so very very wrong on this.  

[EmpireCity]

48 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I think this won't do 100M in total tbh.

 

[MrPink]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

I think this won't do 100M in total tbh.

 

You fucking doofus.

 

Let me put it this way for sequels that took way too long to come out. Dumb and Dumber To, a freakin' comedy sequel that was 15 years too late opened to 38m on its way to 86m back in 2014. Top Gun 2 with IMAX and PLF premiums, large action setpieces, sequel to a much bigger film, presumably much better reception, is not gonna hit 100m? 

 

I think the floor is closer to like 130-135m DOM.

Edited April 7, 2022 by MrPink

[Brainbug]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

I think this won't do 100M in total tbh.

 

Wrong in the JW thread, wrong here as well i believe . Theres no way Top Gun goes under 100M. It would need Morbius-level of negative reception for that.

[Cmasterclay]

I have seen tracking data (not particularly that secret or internal) that shows this at 90 percent of Dr. Strange's awareness and interest. I'm obviously not saying it gets that high or that number is 100 percent accurate, but it's far above the April releases and at the level of something that does 70m+ OW. @EmpireCity is obviously much deeper in the industry than me and can probably corroborate this information. We don't usually share the same optimism but we seem to be seeing eye to eye on this one.

[Webslinger]

I'm pretty optimistic on this one as well, long delay and all. I could perhaps see a scenario where it underperforms thanks to sitting on the shelf for so long (even then though, I definitely don't see it falling under $100 million domestic), but what I think sets this apart from the likes of, say, F9, Black Widow, and No Time to Die is that it has more novelty working in its favor as the first sequel to an beloved blockbuster of decades past that is lucky enough to still have its headlining star front and center. I don't think it's as likely to be subject to the oversaturated, been-there-done-that apathy that affected the performances of the aforementioned pandemic era sequels.

[Maggie]

10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I have seen tracking data (not particularly that secret or internal) that shows this at 90 percent of Dr. Strange's awareness and interest. I'm obviously not saying it gets that high or that number is 100 percent accurate, but it's far above the April releases and at the level of something that does 70m+ OW. @EmpireCity is obviously much deeper in the industry than me and can probably corroborate this information. We don't usually share the same optimism but we seem to be seeing eye to eye on this one.

Where did you see the data? On that The Quorum site? I don’t think that site is very reliable

[Menor the Destroyer]

100M opening weekend more likely than under 100M total.