Weekend Thread | Estimates per BOM ~ BP 65.7M, RS 17M, DW 13M, GN 10.7M, PR 10M, ANL 5.65M, J:WTTJ 4.5M, FSF 3.3M, TGS 2.68M

[MaxAggressor]

From Deadline:

 

Much like last weekend, no film can break out and survive in a Black Panther-ruled world as the Marvel pic is seeing a $62.2M third weekend at No. 1, -44% with a pace toward $497.6M.

 

With an opening at $17.4M in second place, 20th Century Fox/Chernin Entertainment’s Red Sparrow is no eagle at the box office, especially next to its net $69M production cost which reportedly includes star Jennifer Lawrence getting paid between $15M-$20M.

 

With an opening at $12M in 3rd place, MGM’s Death Wish is slightly under the result of other low budget guy action fare which has flooded the marketplace during the first quarter, i.e. STXfilms’ Den of Thieves ($15.2M,  $44.4M domestic, $67.5M global) and Studio Canal/Lionsgate’s The Commuter ($13.7M opening, $36.1M domestic, $100M global) both of which carry similar production costs.

Edited March 3, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[Alli]

Oh Shit that's lower than Atomic Blonde for RS

[Jessie]

7 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

He's not funny though - just rude and unlikable.  If he had more charm, skill or likability he'd have the audience laughing with him and even at themselves even as the insults flew but instead he's cringe making and makes one feel sorry for his targets.

 

 

 

Well lets face it he is funny, he is just controversial with a dry sense of humour. It got the ratings up and he even said he shouldn't be hosting but if they keep inviting him then he will keep doing it. Sorry you aren't a fan, plenty of people are.

[MaxAggressor]

From Deadline:

 

Continued shoutouts to Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Fox’s Greatest Showman: It’s March, and these Christmas releases are still in the top 10 with respective running domestic cumes of $393M and $164.5M.

So Jumanji 2's weekend is estimated at 4.3 million. Wow. Fucking unreal.   

Edited March 3, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[aabattery]

If BP is gonna be less than 3M away from 500M after Sunday...

 

[MaxAggressor]

4 minutes ago, aabattery said:

If BP is gonna be less than 3M away from 500M after Sunday...

 

Thanks for the gif. This was a hilarious scene from MOTOE. It had me in splits.    

[MaxAggressor]

1) Black Panther (DIS), 4,084 theaters (+64)  / $16.3M Fri  (-43%) / 3-day: $62.2M (-44%)/Total: $497.6M/Wk 3

2) Red Sparrow (FOX), 3,056 theaters  / $6.3m Fri (includes $1.2M previews)/3-day: $17.4M /Wk 1

3) Death Wish (MGM), 2,847 theaters  / $4.3m Fri (includes $650K previews)/3-day: $12M /Wk 1

4) Game Night (NL/WB), 3,502 theaters (+14) / $3m Fri (-45%)/3-day: $10.45M (-39%)/Total: $33.3M/Wk 2

5) Peter Rabbit (SONY), 3,607 theaters (-100)  / $2M Fri (-28%) /3-day: $9.1M (-28%) /Total: $82.1M/Wk 4

6) Annihilation (PAR), 2,012 theaters  / $1.5M Fri (-61%)/3-day: $5.4M (-51%)/Total: $20.4M/Wk 2

7)   Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 2,313 theaters (-206) / $950K Fri (-27%)/3-day: $4.2M (-25%)/Total:$392.9M/ Wk 11

8) Fifty Shades Freed (UNI), 2,614 theaters (-651) / $1.1 M Fri (-52%) /3-day: $3.4M(-52%)/Total: $95.7M /Wk 4

 

9) The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 1,407 theaters (-194) / $663K Fri (-27%) / 3-day: $2.5M (-26%)/Total: $164.4M/Wk 11

10)  Every Day (OR), 1,669 theaters  / $458K Fri (-58%) /3-day: $1.5M (-51%)/Total: $5.2M/Wk 2

[Mojoguy]

I wonder how much more Jumanji will make?

[MCKillswitch123]

21 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

1) Black Panther (DIS), 4,084 theaters (+64)  / $16.3M Fri  (-43%) / 3-day: $62.2M (-44%)/Total: $497.6M/Wk 3

2) Red Sparrow (FOX), 3,056 theaters  / $6.3m Fri (includes $1.2M previews)/3-day: $17.4M /Wk 1

3) Death Wish (MGM), 2,847 theaters  / $4.3m Fri (includes $650K previews)/3-day: $12M /Wk 1

4) Game Night (NL/WB), 3,502 theaters (+14) / $3m Fri (-45%)/3-day: $10.45M (-39%)/Total: $33.3M/Wk 2

5) Peter Rabbit (SONY), 3,607 theaters (-100)  / $2M Fri (-28%) /3-day: $9.1M (-28%) /Total: $82.1M/Wk 4

6) Annihilation (PAR), 2,012 theaters  / $1.5M Fri (-61%)/3-day: $5.4M (-51%)/Total: $20.4M/Wk 2

7)   Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 2,313 theaters (-206) / $950K Fri (-27%)/3-day: $4.2M (-25%)/Total:$392.9M/ Wk 11

8) Fifty Shades Freed (UNI), 2,614 theaters (-651) / $1.1 M Fri (-52%) /3-day: $3.4M(-52%)/Total: $95.7M /Wk 4

 

9) The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 1,407 theaters (-194) / $663K Fri (-27%) / 3-day: $2.5M (-26%)/Total: $164.4M/Wk 11

10)  Every Day (OR), 1,669 theaters  / $458K Fri (-58%) /3-day: $1.5M (-51%)/Total: $5.2M/Wk 2

Dunno why would people meltdown over Panther's number. It's pretty damn good, and right in between the 3rd w/e drops of The Force Awakens and Jurassic World + The Avengers. Though I imagine it's gonna blow up again on Saturday, anyway.

 

#NotGreat for Red Sparrow. But unsurprising; the mixed wom and divisive nature of the movie made it an inevitability that it would fall from the 20M predictions. Death Wish could also fall from the 12M range, but I don't think it will (its audience will keep it afloat for the weekend being).

 

Great holds for Game Night, Peter Rabbit, Jumanji and The Greatest Showman. Annihilation could've had it worse for its drop as well.

 

Speaking of Peter Rabbit, its still pretty close (but behind) Gnomeo.... so next weekend's hold against AWIT will be the test of tests to see if it can get just within reach of a fudgejob. And Freed is also looking likelier than ever to get to the mark.... a Darker multiple from this exact same point on puts it at 99.7M. And I doubt Universal would let the fudge opportunity escape. Freed will probably get to 100, even if through fudging; while Rabbit is still on the run, albeit less likely.

[Nova]

To be honest I'm expecting big Saturday bumps across the board. The northeast was hit with a very bad storm that I'm sure affected Friday's numbers especially given that the storm was at its peak between mid-afternoon and late evening which is when most folks would go out to the theaters on Friday. 

[MaxAggressor]

NATM legs from here on out gets Jumanji 2 to 414.1 million assuming Deadline's 4.2 million weekend estimate holds steady. Spider-Man [2002] is toast. Looking further ahead, J2 will have to collapse 23.5% against NATM's legs to finish behind CA:CW. That would happen only if J2 loses location counts (theaters) at a really fast clip. That is a possibility but it actually hasn't happened even once in J2's DBO run.

 

So far J2 hasn't dropped over 336 theaters in any weekend (there has been 11 of 'em so far) and it's worst theater retention is 89.29% (in 9th weekend against BP's OW). Also, it's worst PTA drop is 28.24%. What an absolutely awesome BO run. It's my favorite one yet.   

Edited March 3, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[baumer]

That's quite the drop for Red Sparrow from the 7 mill estimate.

[Krissykins]

Not surprised at that Red Sparrow number. Right in line with Ghost in the Shell and Atomic Blonde. Less even.

 

Game Night saving some face with that strong weekend hold. $50m should be doable. Although at $37m budget and 3500 cinemas I can’t help but think WB expected much more.  

[MrGlass2]

Quote

6..) Annihilation (PAR), 2,012 theaters  / $1.5M Fri (-61%)/3-day: $5.4M (-51%)/Total: $20.4M/Wk 2

Annihilation is the box office surprise of 2018 so far!

[filmscholar]

BP about 500 Million in 17 Days? It just leaped E.T., Shrek 2 and Rises.  Ultron, A New Hope, Menace and Dory will all fall by Sunday.  Sorry but for Last Jedi, Avengers, Jurassic World and Titanic..........

 

Edited March 3, 2018 by filmscholar

[KeepItU25071906]

29 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Great holds for Game Night

Is the -39% drop  after pale start  great? Ooookkk

[WrathOfHan]

@MovieMan89 Fifty Shades fucked your club.

[XO21]

$20m for RS would have been a save the face, under it’s just bad, sadly

[Taruseth]

12 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Dunno why would people meltdown over Panther's number. It's pretty damn good, and right in between the 3rd w/e drops of The Force Awakens and Jurassic World + The Avengers. Though I imagine it's gonna blow up again on Saturday, anyway.

 

#NotGreat for Red Sparrow. But unsurprising; the mixed wom and divisive nature of the movie made it an inevitability that it would fall from the 20M predictions. Death Wish could also fall from the 12M range, but I don't think it will (its audience will keep it afloat for the weekend being).

 

Great holds for Game Night, Peter Rabbit, Jumanji and The Greatest Showman. Annihilation could've had it worse for its drop as well.

 

Speaking of Peter Rabbit, its still pretty close (but behind) Gnomeo.... so next weekend's hold against AWIT will be the test of tests to see if it can get just within reach of a fudgejob. And Freed is also looking likelier than ever to get to the mark.... a Darker multiple from this exact same point on puts it at 99.7M. And I doubt Universal would let the fudge opportunity escape. Freed will probably get to 100, even if through fudging; while Rabbit is still on the run, albeit less likely.

Wait, who has a meltdown about those numbers, because they are good? Because they are.

 

Fifth highest first weekend.

Second highest second weekend.

Third highest third weekend.

 

Fourth highest fourth Weekend? (between $29,242,026 ($1 above JW) and 36,686,872$ ($1 above Avengers) That would be a drop between 53% and 41%. So really likely

 

Because that drop is really good and better than JW and Avengers, AoU, Civil War, Beauty and the Beast, Iron Man 3, HP8, BvS, Catching Fire, SM3, F&F7, GotG 2, Twillight 2 & 5 & 4, Suicide Squad, Deadpool, Iron Man 2, HP7, It, Thor 3, THG Mockingjay 1, Shrek 3, SM: HC, MoS, Alice in Wonderland, Minions, PotC 3, Toy Story 3, SW 3, Shrek 2 (that had a better second weekend drop of 33.2% though), X-Men 3, HP 5, THG Mockingjay 2, Indiana Jones 4, Transformers 4.

 

The drop is worse than TFA (-39.5%), TLJ (-26.6%, after a 67.5% drop from Opening Weekend), TDKR (-42.5% but that dropped 61.4% from OW to 2nd Weekend), TDK (43.2% after a 52.5%), Rogue one (22.5% after 58.7%), THG (43.4% after 61.6%), PotC 2 (43.5% after a 54%), Finding Dory (42.7% after 46%), Spider-Man (36.9% after 37.8%), Transformers 2 (42.8% after 61.2% after a Wednesday start), SloP (41.8% after 51.3%), Jungle book (29% after 40.4%), Wonder Woman (29.5% after 43.3%)

 

So following films had a lower first to third Weekend drop for films opening above $100M (50 films opened above):

TJB (57.7%)

WW (60%)

SM (60.8%)

TFA (63.6%)

Shrek 2 (64.9%)

RO (68%)

Finding Dory (69%)

 

BP (69.2%)

[MCKillswitch123]

22 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

Is the -39% drop  after pale start  great? Ooookkk

Is it not? It doesn't matter if it opened to 17M, to 70M or to 7M: 39% drop 2nd weekend is great, period.