INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[RandomCat]

@That I'M BANNED Guy I love you.

[baumer]

4 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

Maybe it helps fractionally.  Theaters were stealing from other movies all weekend long to fit as many times as they could in, that's one of the major benefits of digital.   I don't think there's any way of realistically putting an amount on how much this would have made were it shorter.

 

  

 

Also, if you had a 90 minute SW or Avengers movie, it wouldn't be nearly as well received.  Part of the reason these movies do so well is because they are more than 2 hours, they have a lot of story to tell.  If you condensed that story by 30-60 minutes, no way you have the same film, hence the OW isn't nearly as good.  

[sfran43]

 

[Lordmandeep]

IW made around 219.2 million dollars over its pure weekend, breaking the record from TFA at 192 million.

 

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

nice number @aabattery

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, eXtacy said:

So roughly a 69.2m Sunday. Thats an awesome hold only down -16.6% (less than the first Avengers!)

 

It's an incredible number for sure. That said, I wish they took the extra $800,000 from Friday and moved it to Sunday so we could have $70m.

 

But like the Rolling Stones said, you can't always get what you want. But you get what you need!

[Sam]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Avengers also had a 30M opener stealing some IMAX screens in its second weekend and a lot fewer admissions than Infinity War.

 

Lol. Why you gotta remind me of Dark Shadows.

 

Or wait, was it Battleship? My memory is fuzzy as to which poor movies The Avengers shut down lol.

[baumer]

4 hours ago, Sam said:

Monday showtimes haven’t even started like anywhere in US yet.

 

I know your mind is full of Cameron’s d*** most of the time (no shame about that, you do you) but at least have some ideas about BO stuff when you’re on a BO forum man. 

 

I think he was asking what we think it will do, not what it has done.  

[Rebeccas]

Only the perfect weekend would end with a 69 number.

[Deep Wang]

10 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Here's my Infinity War forecast using the latest numbers from EC (258M):

 

Remainder of this week: 82.4M (340.3M Total)

May 4: 141.8M (42M weekdays, 524.1M Total)

May 11: 80.3M (23.1M weekdays, 627.5M Total)

May 18: 36.1M (10.4M weekdays, 674M Total)

May 25: 16.8M (9M weekdays, 699.8M Total)

Jun 1: 7.9M (3.3M weekdays, 711M Total)

Jun 8: 4.1M (2.1M weekdays, 717.2M Total)

Jun 15: 2.5M (1.1M weekdays, 720.8M Total)

Jun 22: 1M (600k weekdays, 722.4M Total)

Jun 29: 600k (400k weekdays, 723.4M Total)

Final Total: 725M (2.81x)

 

After seeing the movie, I don't think this is going to suffer from terrible legs like Civil War. This is clearly an event movie, and there will be a lot of spillover next weekend. The second weekend is uncharted territory because JW and TA both dropped 50% off similar weekends, and the SW movies had Christmas. Given the new openers probably won't combine to over 20M and have small TCs, I feel good about a sub-50 drop. That'll continue into Mothers Day, and by the time Deadpool and Solo are out, it'll be dropping O/U 50% from there out.

 

7 minutes ago, Sam said:

TA dropped 50%

 

Don’t see how IW can manage -45%

 

Going insane don’t always work Han.

Not seeing it either, but so far, this movie doesn't give a fuck what we think.  

 

That being said, the chances of it dropping less than 50% are razor thin, but if it does, then all bets are off and we are in for a hell of a few weeks.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Monday drops for the other top openers:

 

The Avengers: -66.9%

Age of Ultron: -73.7%

Civil War: -68.7%

Beauty and the Beast: -72%

Iron Man 3: -73.8%

 

Spillover is undoubtedly going to be big, and given that the only other 200M opener we can compare it to dropped just under 67%, I'd go with that one. 65% isn't impossible IMO

 

I was thinking the same thing.  65-66% should happen.  There were probably plenty of people who didn't get to see it this weekend.

[WrathOfHan]

A lot of you aren't considering how barren the market is over the next couple of weeks:

 

Overboard: A Eugenio Derbez movie targeting a Hispanic audience that will open in the low to mid teens and collapse afterwards (will it even beat Latin Lover's OW with more theaters?).

Tully: A critically acclaimed comedy that Focus is dumping for some reason. It'll open around 4-5M, increase the following weekend, and then go away.

Bad Samaritan: Literally nobody knows what this is!

 

Life of the Party: Although this is Melissa McCarthy's first movie since Ghostbusters, can it cross 20M on OW? A Snatched-like opening with better legs wouldn't surprise me, but it's still not major competition to IW given the target audience is older women.

Breaking In: It'll probably open in the mid-teens and collapse afterwards. Again, this is targeting older women.

 

Infinity War is the only option out for men and younger women until Deadpool, and even older women will still be seeing it. This is a four-quad event movie.

[Sam]

3 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

So looks like

 

39M Thu

67M Fri

83M Sat (+24% / - 22%)

69.2M Sun (-16.6%)

[Brainbug]

Give @WrathOfHan some credit for his projections. One fail (Wonder Woman ) shoundt overshadow that his forecasts are often pretty good. And we already had that grumpy old guy (@Telemachos) calling him insane for his 260M IW guess and turns out that was nearly right on the money.

Edited April 30, 2018 by Brainbug

[Deep Wang]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Also, if you had a 90 minute SW or Avengers movie, it wouldn't be nearly as well received.  Part of the reason these movies do so well is because they are more than 2 hours, they have a lot of story to tell.  If you condensed that story by 30-60 minutes, no way you have the same film, hence the OW isn't nearly as good.  

Absolutely!  There's a reason why the shortest movies in top 50 OW's are animated movies, and none of those have opened higher than FD's $135m.

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, Sam said:

Lol. Why you gotta remind me of Dark Shadows.

 

Or wait, was it Battleship? My memory is fuzzy as to which poor movies The Avengers shut down lol.

No, it was Dark Shadows  

[Sam]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I think he was asking what we think it will do, not what it has done.  

Got what he meant afterwards. But then an opportunity to drag him a bit is too fun to pass up lol. 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, eXtacy said:

 

Does not matter. All showings were over 6 hours ago. Empirecity only updated one hour ago. His information should be spot on at this time. 

 

Empire also says that he is not good with calculations sometimes.  When him and RTH give us numbers, there is a lot of math involved.  When I met up with RTH during TIFF last year, we had lunch on a patio and he took out his laptop and did the math for The Hitman's Bodyguard right in front of me.  There's math and extrapolation.  And that was for a film making less than a million for the day.  Picture what's involved for a film with 60-70 million. 

 

The 69 number was good.  So that's good.   

[redfirebird2008]

19 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Here's my Infinity War forecast using the latest numbers from EC (258M):

 

Remainder of this week: 82.4M (340.3M Total)

May 4: 141.8M (42M weekdays, 524.1M Total)

May 11: 80.3M (23.1M weekdays, 627.5M Total)

May 18: 36.1M (10.4M weekdays, 674M Total)

May 25: 16.8M (9M weekdays, 699.8M Total)

Jun 1: 7.9M (3.3M weekdays, 711M Total)

Jun 8: 4.1M (2.1M weekdays, 717.2M Total)

Jun 15: 2.5M (1.1M weekdays, 720.8M Total)

Jun 22: 1M (600k weekdays, 722.4M Total)

Jun 29: 600k (400k weekdays, 723.4M Total)

Final Total: 725M (2.81x)

 

After seeing the movie, I don't think this is going to suffer from terrible legs like Civil War. This is clearly an event movie, and there will be a lot of spillover next weekend. The second weekend is uncharted territory because JW and TA both dropped 50% off similar weekends, and the SW movies had Christmas. Given the new openers probably won't combine to over 20M and have small TCs, I feel good about a sub-50 drop. That'll continue into Mothers Day, and by the time Deadpool and Solo are out, it'll be dropping O/U 50% from there out.

 

If it lands over $140m for the second weekend, I seriously doubt it only reaches $725m in the end. I would think it goes well over $750m in this scenario, possibly gets to $800m.

Edited April 30, 2018 by redfirebird2008

[Brainbug]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Also, if you had a 90 minute SW or Avengers movie, it wouldn't be nearly as well received.  Part of the reason these movies do so well is because they are more than 2 hours, they have a lot of story to tell.  If you condensed that story by 30-60 minutes, no way you have the same film, hence the OW isn't nearly as good.  

 

SW and Avengers movies are epics and a 90 Minute movie certainly woundt feel right for these kind of storys. Same goes for something like LOTR - i cant and dont want to imagine such a short runtime for a movie adaption of that story.