Weekend Thread | Wknd #'s A:IW 61.8, LOTP 18.5, BI 16.5, OB 10.1, AQP 6.4, IFP 3.7, R 3.4, T 2.2

[REC]

We need a club for IW total WW gross at or over 400M this weekend.

 

If.. China does $250M, Dom holds at about 60M, and everything else nets 90M or so... it's not impossible.

 

In fact 420+ WW is not impossible.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

1 minute ago, REC said:

We need a club for IW total WW gross at or over 400M this weekend.

 

If.. China does $250M, Dom holds at about 60M, and everything else nets 90M or so... it's not impossible.

 

In fact 420+ WW is not impossible.

Don't think China is doing $250M. Probably $200M-$220M. 

[REC]

1 minute ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Don't think China is doing $250M. Probably $200M-$220M. 

Of course.  Who knows, but some of the China experts are way more bullish than your relatively safe bet.

 

And it could still either hit 400 or come really close with only 220 China.  The OS-China numbers are strong, I think 90m there is probably low anyway.

[Jonwo]

It'll be interesting how Book Club does, I think it'll affect LOTP a little but I imagine $10-15m OW is the best Paramount can hope for. 

 

LOTP will likely break even or eek a small profit for WB, compared to last year with the disaster that was King Arthur, LOTP doing okay business is still an improvement. 

Edited May 12, 2018 by Jonwo

[Belle]

10 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Sure, I don't disagree with the critical opinions, but when it comes to audience scores this happens literally every single movie that doesn't star a white dude at this point. I don't know why people even bother looking at it.

Looking at things like IMDB, Rotten Tomatoes and Cinemascore. You're reaching and using a few exceptions. Breaking In and Life Of the Party received poor reviews and looking at the audience score, isn't being viewed differently. 

 

Using recent examples of movies starting women or minorities/diverse casts that actually got decent to critical acclaim, like Get Out, Wonder Woman, Beauty and the Beast, Girls Trip, Moana and Coco. All got As,A-, or A+ on Cinemascore. The lowest was 79% Audience score and everyone else was above 80% but they all got at least a 4/5 average audience score. IMDB is all over the place but they all got at least above 6/10 which technically by RT terms would still be "fresh". 

 

I could list some more of movies with good audience scores that starred women or minorities/diverse casts made at least in 2015 or later like Rogue One, Force Awakens, Zootopia, Finding Dory (I know they're animals but they're female), Lady Bird, Straight Outta Compton. Moonlight. Three Billboards. SM: Homecoming (which had a heavily diverse cast) and La La Land (which had a female co-lead and I don't believe was a film that skewed heavily towards males). 

Edited May 12, 2018 by Belle

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Belle said:

I assume you mean things like IMDB, Rotten Tomatoes and Cinemascore. Lmao You're reaching and using a few exceptions. Breaking In and Life Of the Party received poor reviews and looking at the audience score atm, isn't that different. 

 

Using recent examples of movies starting women or minorities/diverse casts that actually got decent reviews, like Get Out, Wonder Woman, Beauty and the Beast, Girls Trip, Moana and Coco. All got As,A-, or A+ on Cinemascore. The lowest was 79% Audience score and everyone else was above 80% but they all got at least a 4/5 average audience score. IMDB is all over the place but they all got at least above 6/10 which technically by RT terms would still be "fresh". 

 

I could list some more of movies with good audience scores that starred women or minorities/diverse casts made at least in 2015 or later like Rogue One, Force Awakens, Zootopia, Finding Dory (I know they're animals but they're female), Lady Bird, Straight Outta Compton. Moonlight. Three Billboards. SM: Homecoming (which I saw got some positive reception for accurately reflecting the diversity of New York). La La Land had a female co-lead and I don't believe was a film that skewed heavily towards males. And each one of those movies unless I'm remembering incorrectly made multiple times their budgets as well.

 

There is soooo much wrong with this post.  Good lord.  I'm fucking crying at you using Spider-Man Homecoming or Beauty and the Beast or any of the Star Wars films as an example of "a film with diversity that didn't get bad audience scores!!!!"  And for the record he's referring to the first day after a film's release when there's a bunch of people spamming the votes on RT.  After a few weeks it tends to even out.

[dxmatrixdt]

because of the unpredictability of MD Sunday, but 100% predictability for everything else, a complete list of Friday numbers, or Fri + Sat increases should set up a good structure for predicting the holdovers next weekend.  

[Barnack]

21 minutes ago, Belle said:

Looking at things like IMDB, Rotten Tomatoes and Cinemascore. You're reaching and using a few exceptions. Breaking In and Life Of the Party received poor reviews and looking at the audience score, isn't being viewed differently. 

 

Cinemascore will not have issue with this, cannot be affected by troll, it is actual movie goers opinion.

 

When you get bigger amount of people that have seen the movie cheaping in, score become more normalized (less affected by fan upvoting before seeing the movie or the first nights and troll downvoting movies)

[WrathOfHan]

If Life of the Party is on the lower end, I could see it playing out like this:

 

May 11: 15.5M (4.3M weekdays, 19.8M Total)

May 18: 5.9M (2.3M weekdays, 28M Total)

May 25: 2.9M (1.8M weekdays, 32.7M Total)

Jun 1: 1.3M (700k weekdays, 34.7M Total)

Jun 8: 700k (400k weekdays, 35.8M Total)

Final Total: 37M (2.39x)

 

These are better legs than what Snatched had, fwiw. The PTA next weekend is going to be baaaaaaaaad; if my prediction pans out, that will be a $1,614 PTA. The best case scenario would be a 60% drop to 6.2M like Snatched, which brings the PTA just under $1,700. The PTA could drop below A Quiet Place's, which would be fucking hilarious  

 

Here's Breaking In while I'm at it:

 

May 11: 13M (3.2M weekdays, 16.2M Total)

May 18: 4.8M (1.2M weekdays, 22.2M Total)

May 25: 1.6M (1M weekdays, 24.8M Total)

Jun 1: 700k (300k weekdays, 25.8M Total)

Final Total: 27M (2.08x)

 

We're in Screen Gems/Tyler Perry territory here  

[Dandeak2000]

Weekend Low End $58.2M (don't think it will go below this with $16M Friday)

Biggest 3rd Fridays

 

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (January 2016, New Year's Day) $34.5M

2. Avatar (January 2010, New Year's Day) $25.3M

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (December 2017) $19M

4. Rogue one: A Star Wars Story (December 2016) $18.2M

5. Black Panther (March 2018) $16.3M

6. Avengers: Infinity War (May 2018) $16M (est. could go up)

 

Biggest 3rd Saturdays

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (January 2016) $34.4M

2. Black Panther (March 2018) $30.1M

3. Avatar (January 2018) $25.8M

4. Avengers: Infinity War (May 2018) $24.8M (+55%)

5. Marvel's The Avengers (May 2012) $23.6M

6. Jurassic World (June 2015) $22.5M

 

Biggest 3rd Sundays

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (January 2016) $21.5M

2. Black Panther (March 2018) $20M

3. Avengers: Infinity War (May 2018) $17.4M (-30%)

4. Avatar (January 2010) $17.38M

5. Jurassic World (June 2015) $17.36M

6. Marvel's The Avengers (May 2012) $16.8M

 

Biggest 3rd Weekends

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens $90.2M

2. Avatar $68.5M

3. Black Panther $66.3M

4. Avengers: Infinity War $58.2M

5. Marvel's The Avengers $55.6M

6. Jurassic World $54.5M

 

Biggest Opening

2nd biggest 2nd weekend

4th biggest 3rd weekend

would need a drop of lower than 37% to get 4th best 4th weekend (i.e. it ain't happening)

 

All top 8 (3rd week) around 9% of full total

9.5%: $612.6M

9%: $646.7M

8.5%: $684.7M

[JB33]

55-57 for IW would be....disappointing. 

[Wrath]

3 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

But does Variety really have a much better track record?   

Not really. Historically, their calls have been extremely similar.

[Wrath]

5 hours ago, GraceRandolph said:

So it’s doing 60M? That’s below BP. Yikes...

BP is currently the #3 movie of all time domestically. A movie can be gigantically successful and fail to beat BP.

[dxmatrixdt]

weekdays assuming 60m weekend at 17 days this coming Sunday

Mon                Tues          Wed    Thurs 

 4.00 (+32.5%) 5.30 (-32%) 3.6 + 3.4 = 562.3 21-day total.

 

with this, a 27.7m (-54%) weekend against Deadpool gives 590 total at 24 days.

Listed above has the upcoming weekdays predicted at 16.3. 

Assume that drops by half for the weekdays following Deadpool.  Add another 8 here for 598 total at 28 days.

but maybe IW goes for 30m+ next weekend to eclipse the 600m mark before day #28 (the Thursday after next).

[baumer]

2 hours ago, Biggestgeekever said:

It fell 77% on Monday; its weekdays are not really any stronger in relation to its weekend than any other Marvel film from this.

 

Variety gave us a $16M number for Friday; $55M would be quite a lowball with that figure unless you're expecting a total collapse on Sunday.

 

Forget about the percentage drops and increases during the week, I'm talking about pure dollars. You got a movie that's making 10 million dollars on a Tuesday at the beginning of May. That number is pretty unheard of at this time of year. So that's why the increases on Friday are not as big as what you think they should be.

[MovieMan89]

If 16m pans out, that's the same Friday increase as GotG2's mother's day weekend. The same Sat/Sun holds get 63m. Or if you want to use GotG2's third weekend instead, the FSS holds were nearly identical. 

[Ethan Hunt]

Tully fucked me up

[a2k]

58 possible imo, as it's been trending upwards of Deadline's numbers and holds last couple of weekends.

15.5 + 24.5 (+58%) + 18.0 (-26.5%) = 58.0 (-49.4%) [544 cume]

But MD Sunday is a wildcard.

 

544 + 58*2.25 = 675

[sfran43]

Disney and Marvel's Avengers: Infinity War has finally landed in China, where it is scoring one of the biggest opening days of all time with $70 million-plus, according to early Friday estimates.

Disney will provide an estimate later on Friday. Numbers coming out of China suggest Infinity War could climb as high as $77 million for the day, including midnight previews.

To date, Monster Hunt 2 is the record-holder for top opening day with $85 million. That crushed the prior record held by The Fate of the Furious ($69 million) for the largest single-day performance in Chinese box-office history.

Avengers: Infinity War will easily race past $100 million for the weekend in the Middle Kingdom, where it has become the top pre-selling title of all time, eclipsing Chinese blockbuster Monster Hunt 2. Infinity War sold an estimated $65 million in tickets prior to its launch on Friday.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/weekend-box-office-avengers-infinity-war-heads-record-china-superhero-opening-1111054

Edited May 12, 2018 by sfran43

[That One Girl]

12 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Tully fucked me up

 

Best film currently playing rn.  Stop going to see Infinity War for the 5th time y'all, go see Tully