Ocean's 8 Weekend Thread | O8: 41.5...Solo 15.1...DP2: 13.6...Hereditary: 13.0

[baumer]

38 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I think the 11m is a bit of a stretch but it could catch up to ICOI - if it retains enough screens over the next 2 weekends.

 

67.5 doesn't seem out of reach to me.  It's coming off a 4 million weekend.  I have faith that it will get there but miss out on 70 million.

[CJohn]

In 100 minutes, don't miss the Microsoft conference at E3, where legendary developer CD PROJEKT RED, the visionaries behind the masterpiece THE WITCHER 3, will show their new game for the first time. Join us at:

A link to see the conference will be provided, and I will post a reminder here again closer to the start time.

[baumer]

20 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I went with 62M and regretted not going to 65-66M. That may have been a blessing in disguise if it drops almost 50% next week  

 

Why would it drop 50% with The Incredibles coming out next weekend?

[MovieMan89]

Annoys me to no end that IW will probably end about 20m WW away from TFA and 20m DOM of BP. I blame Hawkguy for this travesty. He could have showed up and added those extra mils, but no he had to be playing hide and seek with Jon Hamm and breaking his arms instead. 

[baumer]

1	Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	$151,100,000	$151,100,000	-	$151,100,000	$151,100,000	-	UNI	48	UNI
2	Ocean's 8	$53,700,000	$12,200,000	$41,500,000	$53,700,000	$12,200,000	$41,500,000	WB	17	WB
3	Deadpool 2	$32,159,962	$18,509,962	$13,650,000	$655,258,593	$376,593,052	$278,665,541	FOX	80	FOX
4	Solo: A Star Wars Story	$26,454,000	$11,300,000	$15,154,000	$312,205,474	$136,100,000	$176,105,474	DIS	55	DIS
5	Avengers: Infinity War	$17,736,000	$10,900,000	$6,836,000	$1,998,033,699	$1,343,300,000	$654,733,699	DIS	52	DIS
6	Hereditary	$16,537,336	$3,500,000	$13,037,336	$16,537,336	$3,500,000	$13,037,336	MUL	21	A24
7	Toilet: Ek Prem Katha	$9,000,000	$9,000,000	-	$9,678,532	$9,000,000	$678,532	CNFC	1	RELBIGP
8	How Long Will I Love U	$8,516,000	$8,440,000	$76,000	$128,057,587	$127,409,000	$648,587	MUL	4	WGUI
9	Happiness Is Coming	$6,900,000	$6,900,000	-	$6,900,000	$6,900,000	-	MULTICN	1	-
10	Black Water	$6,200,000	$6,200,000	-	$6,200,000	$6,200,000	-	MUL	2	-
11	Book Club	$5,300,000	$1,100,000	$4,200,000	$59,974,124	$3,100,000	$56,874,124	PAR	27	PAR
12	Adrift	$5,292,000	$242,000	$5,050,000	$22,539,025	$799,000	$21,740,025	STX	13	STX
13	Believer	$4,034,000	$3,890,000	$144,000	$32,144,000	$32,000,000	$144,000	MUL	4	WGUI
14	Doraemon the Movie: Nobita's Treasure Is	$3,430,000	$3,430,000	-	$80,047,334	$80,047,334	-	HUAX	1	-
15	Hotel Artemis	$3,151,118	-	$3,151,118	$3,151,118	-	$3,151,118	-	1	OPRD
16	Overboard	$2,600,000	$1,470,000	$1,130,000	$80,627,579	$33,070,000	$47,557,579	MUL	20	LGF
17	I Feel Pretty	$2,570,000	$2,430,000	$140,000	$79,405,500	30,786,000	$48,619,500	MUL	34	STX
18	Upgrade	$2,220,000	-	$2,220,000	$9,209,605	-	$9,209,605	-	1	OTL
19	Life Of The Party	$2,105,000	-	$2,105,000	$58,651,387	$8,384,810	$50,266,577	WB	1	WB
20	Quiet Place, A	$1,826,000	$826,000	$1,000,000	$324,260,343	$138,800,000	$185,460,343	PAR	27	PAR
21	Kaala	$1,500,000	$1,500,000	-	$1,500,000	$1,500,000	-	MUL	10	INDIN
22	Sherlock Gnomes	$1,430,000	$1,300,000	$130,000	$85,126,297	$42,000,000	$43,126,297	PAR	14	PAR
23	Breaking In	$1,350,000	-	$1,350,000	$46,117,479	$2,131,294	$43,986,185	UNI	1	UNI
24	Show Dogs	$1,228,246	$490,000	$738,246	$23,455,190	$7,090,000	$16,365,190	MUL	17	OPRD
25	Peter Rabbit	$1,200,000	$1,200,000

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

67.5 doesn't seem out of reach to me.  It's coming off a 4 million weekend.  I have faith that it will get there but miss out on 70 million.

Agreed, it came off it's biggest hit and drop against Ocean 8 - it's most direct competition. With it's core demo it should be able to do a 3.5 multi off this w/e unless it's theater count is completely devastated.

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Why would it drop 50% with The Incredibles coming out next weekend?

The TC loss is going to be bigly when it had the third worst PTA in the top 10 and one of the movies above it can't be removed from theaters next week.

Edited June 10, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Agreed, it came off it's biggest hit and drop against Ocean 8 - it's most direct competition. With it's core demo it should be able to do a 3.5 multi off this w/e unless it's theater count is completely devastated.

Its the theater count loss that gives me pause. If not for that, I would think it would make a run at 70m....

[IronJimbo]

So what's the damage looking like with SOLO?

 

$210m DOM

$160m INT

 

$370m WW

 

Estimated loss $200m

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The TC loss is going to be bigly when it had the third worst PTA in the top 10.

Upgrade and Adrift will both most likely have lower PTAs by next week . Action is going to lose about 2000  theaters next week. Life of The Party, Overboard, Snow Dogs, Breaking In, AQP are all at 1000+ theaters and will take big hits first. 

[baumer]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The TC loss is going to be bigly when it had the third worst PTA in the top 10 and one of the movies above it can't be removed from theaters next week.

 

But O8 was going to affect it for sure.  There's no doubt that it did.  But I don't see any reason, including theatre loss, as to why it would fall harder against a kids movie than it would against at movie that usurped some of it's audience. 

[Jake Gittes]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

But O8 was going to affect it for sure.  There's no doubt that it did.  But I don't see any reason, including theatre loss, as to why it would fall harder against a kids movie than it would against at movie that usurped some of it's audience. 

The PTA won't drop harder obviously but the gross might if the theater loss is severe enough. 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

Upgrade and Adrift will both most likely have lower PTAs by next week . Action is going to lose about 2000  theaters next week. Life of The Party, Overboard, Snow Dogs, Breaking In, AQP are all at 1000+ theaters and will take big hits first. 

Theaters that still have those four won't be dropping Book Club. Using my 12plex as an example of what next weekend could look like:

 

Incredibles x3

Tag

SuperFly

Ocean's 8

Solo

Deadpool

Hereditary

Infinity War

Adrift

Book Club/Hotel Artemis

Gone: Upgrade, Action Point, Life of the Party, and Solo's second screen

 

One of Adrift and Book Club will probably go split screen with Artemis, but what happens if they decide to give Incredibles another screen? It's certainly tracking high enough to warrant one. That would mean Book Club leaves and Adrift goes split screen in this scenario.

[AJG]

25 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

What did Bruce Wayne do on his 13th birthday?

 

He had his BAT Mitzvah!!

 

 

 

 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Theaters that still have those four won't be dropping Book Club. Using my 12plex as an example of what next weekend could look like:

 

Incredibles x3

Tag

SuperFly

Ocean's 8

Solo

Deadpool

Hereditary

Infinity War

Adrift

Book Club/Hotel Artemis

Gone: Upgrade, Action Point, Life of the Party, and Solo's second screen

 

One of Adrift and Book Club will probably go split screen with Artemis, but what happens if they decide to give Incredibles another screen? It's certainly tracking high enough to warrant one. That would mean Book Club leaves and Adrift goes split screen in this scenario.

Looking at their respective holds (and not even counting your Fla demo) I'd say Adrift leaves before BC

[CJohn]

31 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

What did Bruce Wayne do on his 13th birthday?

 

He had his BAT Mitzvah!!

 

 

 

[Taruseth]

12 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

So what's the damage looking like with SOLO?

 

$210m DOM

$160m INT

 

$370m WW

 

Estimated loss $199m

😛

Joking, no idea how much it will lose.

 

OS Weekend 11.3M and a 136.1M Os-Total.

If it ads 1x this weekend Os-Total would be 147.4M

I think it could do 1.5x, so adding 17M for a Os-Total of 153M (Mainly because in the Uk and Germany and France JW opened this weekend, so won't kill the movie next weekend and no new movies are opening basically until July (Ocean's 8 opens on 13th (France) and 18th (Uk) and 21st June (Ger), but that won't overlap to much and Incredibles 2 opens on 13th (Uk) and 4th July (France) and 27th September (Germany) Ant-Man opens on 3rd August (Uk) and 26th (Ger) and 18th July (France))

And than Japan comes later on so I guess 165M is int and 215M dom for 380M WW (And I was for quite sometime the most pessimistic on in the Solo <700M club with 600M WW (325M Dom and 275M OS)😂)

[Mekanos]

Solo will probably do around 10 million in Japan. For Rogue One, Japan did half of the UK's haul and equal to France - both are heading for 20 and 10 million for Solo.

Edited June 10, 2018 by Mekanos

[dxmatrixdt]

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-christopher-robin-incredibles-2-update/

6/13/2018	Superfly	$8,500,000	6%	$24,000,000	20%	2,200	Sony
6/15/2018	The Incredibles 2	$138,000,000	10%	$450,000,000	6%	4,200	Disney / Pixar
6/15/2018	Tag	$13,000,000		$43,000,000		3,300	Warner Bros.

 

                                                                                                  

 -9,700 on the theater counts for the holdovers.  

(-950) Solo: Star Wars - 3,385

(-550) Deadpool 2 - 3,273

(-700) Infinity War - 2,182

(-1,000) Adrift - 2,015

(-900) Book Club - 1,902

(-450) Upgrade - 958

(-1,100) Life of the Party - 742

(-650) Breaking In - 512

(-550) Overboard - 506

(-1,550) Action Point - 482

(-450) A Quiet Place - 454

(-750) Show Dogs - 398

(-100) Rampage - 303

(-9,700)

new - The Incredibles 2 - 4,300

new - Tag - 3,400

new - Superfly - 2,300

n.c. - Oceans - 4,145

n,c, - Hereditary - 2,964

n.c. - Hotel Artemis - 2,407

 

 

 

multiplying next weeks projected theater counts by approximate decimal per theater average from prior week, e.g.

(-550) - 3,273 - Deadpool 2 - [(.775)($3,570)(3,273)] = 9.06 (-33.6%) - 293.91

 

assigning the PTA declines for holdovers next week

Deadpool 2 .775 = 9.06 (-33.6%) - 293.91 

Solo: Star Wars .765 = 9.05 (-40.3%) - 191.32

Infinity War .90 = 4.66 (-31.8%) - 662.59

Adrift .75 = 2.54 (-49.7%) - 26.82

Book Club .80 = 2.28 (-45.7%) - 62.21

Upgrade .75 = 1.09 (-50.9%) - 11.46

Life of the Party .85 = 0.72 (-65.8%) - 52.08

Breaking In .85 = 0.51 (-62.2%) - 45.12

Overboard .95 = 0.51 (-54.9%) - 48.60

Action Point 1.15 = 0.24 (-72.7%) - 5.14

A Quiet Place .85 = 0.45 (-55.0%) - 186.44

Show Dogs 1.00 = 0.26 (-64.8%) - 17.12

Rampage 1.15 ~~ 0.32 - 96.40

 

and declines for Hereditary, Hotel Artemis, and Oceans Eight without Thurs #s

-45% - Hereditary - 6.45 (-50.5%) + 5.63 = 25.12

-45% - Hotel Artemis - 1.58 (-49.9%) + 1.35 = 6.08

-40% - Oceans Twelve - 22.50 (-45.8%) + 16.50 = 80.50

[Nova]

Just got out of Adrift. It was solid. It's a shame it's not doing that well because it's great to have a variety of movies doing well in theaters so studios see that it pays to have a variety of films. It's budget should help it be somewhat profitable id think though