Weekend Thread | Hotel 3 $44.1 Skyscraper 25.4, Ant Man’s size does matter with $28.8M

[Bishop54]

[Zakiyyah6]

I predicted 37mil for Skyscraper so yeah...I'm going to be wrong. 

[dxmatrixdt]

8 minutes ago, Alli said:

jumanji was a WOM monster, i doubt that about skyscraper

but will it matter with the first few days?  The Lost World kept increasing its first 3 or 4 days, and Pirates (2003) played like Jumanji at the BO too when it opened strong on opening day and maintained.  Gone in 60 Seconds went 25/100.  Skyscraper could do the same.

Edited July 13, 2018 by dVmatrix5x

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

Well, Skyscraper will probably be my most over predicted film of the year.  I took a 60 mill OW and a 200 total in the summer game.  This looked like a slam dunk to me.  Die Hard meets Towering Inferno with the Rock.  This looked like it had slam dunk written all over it.  I really don't get the box office at times.  

Too much Dwayne Johnson? lol

 

(no joke, when I went to see A Quiet Place earlier this year these two guys heading into the theater passed by the Skyscraper poster outside of it and one of them said "look, Dwayne Johnson has a new movie coming out" and the other guy answered "Rampage? Yes, I know.")

[baumer]

I love most of Rock's films but maybe it's looking like he is the kind of star who needs another star along with him to sell a movie.  Kevin Hart and The Rock seem to have a great rapport and chemistry.  Kevin Hart by himself doesn't really sell a movie and it looks like Johnson by himself can't really sell a movie beyond a certain opening weekend.  All of this is unscientific speculation but without another big name, maybe the Rock has a ceiling of a 25-30 mill opening.  

[Jonwo]

I'm sure Sony will be pleased but it's only a slightly bigger increase than HT2. OS is going to be interesting because it faces I2 in many markets.

As for Skyscraper, I think it was just the movie didn't look interesting whereas Rampage had giant monsters. Universal must be glad they have Mamma Mia! coming next week. Given they're committed to Red Notice, both Universal and Legendary must be a little nervous.

 

Edited July 13, 2018 by Jonwo

[Lucasmessi12]

Bad for Skyscraper (But it should do much better averseas)

Looks good for HT3, $42m+opening.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

12 minutes ago, baumer said:

Well, Skyscraper will probably be my most over predicted film of the year.  I took a 60 mill OW and a 200 total in the summer game.  This looked like a slam dunk to me.  Die Hard meets Towering Inferno with the Rock.  This looked like it had slam dunk written all over it.  I really don't get the box office at times.  

I'll buy into Rock fatigue a bit. Dude has been headlining about 2-3 movies a year the past 4 years. Especially if you think that the concept, while generally reliable, is a little stale. I think it will have decent legs and do well OS, so it should still be a nice success. Also $25-30m OW is maybe the most a single star can sell these days. Gone are the days of A-listers being able to open a movie huge by themselves. Leo may be the one exception here, but he only does stuff every few years, so it's more special when he's in something.

Edited July 13, 2018 by Jayhawk

[Cap]

25 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Fuck, why did I go from 25M to 30M?

 

24 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I should’ve went with my gut on Survivor.  

 

SAAAAAAAME

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Jonwo said:

I'm sure Sony will be pleased but it's only a slightly bigger increase than HT2

 

I think that's a huge win.  I don't think there's many people here who thought it would open bigger than HT2.  Natural erosion happens.  

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

I love most of Rock's films but maybe it's looking like he is the kind of star who needs another star along with him to sell a movie.  Kevin Hart and The Rock seem to have a great rapport and chemistry.  Kevin Hart by himself doesn't really sell a movie and it looks like Johnson by himself can't really sell a movie beyond a certain opening weekend.  All of this is unscientific speculation but without another big name, maybe the Rock has a ceiling of a 25-30 mill opening.  

San Andreas opened to $50m+. 

 

I think he's spreading himself too thin and frankly there's not enough quality in his movies to make them stand out when there's one after another.  He's had 4 movies out over the last year.  Jumanji  as you stay had other stars in the cast, as well as a popular and nostalgic IP and the Christmas season which is usually very generous to comedies.

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

I love most of Rock's films but maybe it's looking like he is the kind of star who needs another star along with him to sell a movie.  Kevin Hart and The Rock seem to have a great rapport and chemistry.  Kevin Hart by himself doesn't really sell a movie and it looks like Johnson by himself can't really sell a movie beyond a certain opening weekend.  All of this is unscientific speculation but without another big name, maybe the Rock has a ceiling of a 25-30 mill opening.  

I think a strong hook is needed as well, Baywatch failed because it wasn't funny for example and as I mentioned Rampage had giant monsters. 

 

I'm sure Jungle Cruise and Hobbs and Shaw should do well but maybe Dwayne needs to be more selective. I think instead of doing Black Adam as a solo film, make it the sequel to Shazam.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Jayhawk said:

I'll buy into Rock fatigue a bit. Dude has been headlining about 2-3 movies a year the past 4 years. Especially if you think that the concept, while generally reliable, is a little stale. I think it will have decent legs and do well OS, so it should still be a nice success. Also $25-30m OW is maybe the most a single star can sell these days. Gone are the days of A-listers being able to open a movie huge by themselves. Leo may be the one exception here, but he only does stuff every few years, so it's more special when he's in something.

 

I've said this so many times and I'll say it again.  I'm 46 now and have studied the box office for about 30 years.  And no matter how much I think I know (and I really don't think I know much anymore), the box office humbles me so much more than it doesn't.  

[John Marston]

21 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I never understood why people thought Hotel Transylvania 3 would decrease substantially. The second one increased when most sequels like this usually decrease, and the summer vacation theme made this one appear different enough from its predecessors to avoid staleness. 

 

 

Some claimed because Incredibles 2 was so big it would eat HT3

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

San Andreas opened to $50m+. 

 

I think he's spreading himself too thin and frankly there's not enough quality in his movies to make them stand out when there's one after another.  He's had 4 movies out over the last year.  Jumanji  as you stay had other stars in the cast, as well as a popular and nostalgic IP and the Christmas season which is usually very generous to comedies.

He's doing 2-3 movies a year and Ballers, I think he has to learn to say no and turn down projects. 

[Krissykins]

Ooh, Skyscaper will miss it’s tracking then unless it doesn’t increase rapidly.

[TalismanRing]

8 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

 

 

SAAAAAAAME

I blame Fandango and thier lying ass - it's selling better than Rampage notice yesterday.   

 

Yet on Fandango it was selling about  68% over Mon - Wed - I should have believed in those numbers instead of the press release.

 

Edited July 13, 2018 by TalismanRing

[baumer]

3 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

San Andreas opened to $50m+. 

 

I think he's spreading himself too thin and frankly there's not enough quality in his movies to make them stand out when there's one after another.  He's had 4 movies out over the last year.  Jumanji  as you stay had other stars in the cast, as well as a popular and nostalgic IP and the Christmas season which is usually very generous to comedies.

 

You're right.  That's a good one.  But maybe, just maybe, even though Dadario isn't a huge star, seeing her running around in danger was a good selling point.  I'm not sure at this point.  And to be honest, San Andreas was the film I thought Skyscraper would follow.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

San Andreas opened to $50m+. 

And the draw for that movie was most likely the promise of mass destruction.

[TalismanRing]

Just now, Krissykins said:

Ooh, Skyscaper will miss it’s tracking then unless it doesn’t increase rapidly.

It looks like it's going to even miss it's studio low ball estimate - rarer than missing tracking