Official Oct 5 to Oct 7 Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Venom - 80M (205M WW OW); A Star is Born - 42.6M

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

I'm thinking First Man will open the same as Captain Phillips did five years ago with $25M.

Which would be okay although might only be enough for third place. 

[CoolioD1]

wanted was such a great film that left such a large cultural impact. even ten years later people can't stop making loom of fate jokes.

[filmlover]

It's gonna be a very strong final quarter of 2018. Halloween is projected to open to $60M+ in two weeks and then the plethora of November/December blockbusters are coming along.

[MaxAggressor]

 

https://deadline.com/2018/10/venom-a-star-is-born-weekend-box-office-lady-gaga-1202476614/

 

Sony is reporting a whopping $10M for Venom–the best Thursday night preview in October of all-time, while Warner Bros. is reporting that the last three nights of previews for A Star Is Born tallied $4.55M.

Edited October 5, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[Maxmoser3]

Surpise surprise: 

[Brainbug]

What is Gitesh thinking?

 

Anyway, great numbers for both. October is off to an exciting start for sure.

[Eric the Fall Guy]

7 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Great preview number for Venom. 65m OW at-least. 

 

But has no other CBM movie done early previews (earlier than 7pm) before?

IW, BvS, SS, JL, and AMatW all had 6 PM previews, but I'm pretty sure Venom is the only CBM to open at 5.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

wanted was such a great film that left such a large cultural impact. even ten years later people can't stop making loom of fate jokes.

It's also funny to watch a decade later because now the asshole best friend (Chris Pratt) is the biggest star in the cast. 

 

[MrGlass2]

10?!?!?!

 

[a2k]

Suicide Squad, AIW and Ant-Man2 OWs did 6.5-6.6x the previews. SS and AM2 were summer and AIW was a three-quel with massive build-up, so Venom should do that at least for 65+ OW. 75-80 on the higher side.

 

If Venom can pull off 170+ WW OW (70-75 Dom + 95-100 OS) then should get to 400+ WW without China.

[Jonwo]

10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

American Sniper’s previews-to-weekend ratio gets Star to 52.4M (not including Wednesday numbers). Would definitely say 50 is manageable.

Kind of insane we might have two October records.

[filmlover]

Just now, Jonwo said:

Kind of insane we might have two October records.

Heck, three if Halloween opens as high as early tracking is suggesting.

[bcf26]

Lil Monsters and Mini Coopers will join forces to get ASIB to 50M+ OW.

[James]

10 hours ago, bcf26 said:

Lil Monsters and Mini Coopers will join forces to get ASIB to 50M+ OW.

[dxmatrixdt]

A Star is Born's theater counts not reported.
Venom - 3,543 locations - 10.0 million = roughly 304 tickets purchased per venue.
Star/Born - going w/ 3,000 locations - 3.20 million = 115 ($/th)

Venom looking at a Friday of 33-34 with the 10 in previews included.
Saturday should be 24 and 15.9 on Sunday for a weekend of 73.9 - 74.0

A Star is Born might shoot all the way to 18.9 plus the additional 1.35 from Wednesday.
Full weekend there should be 45.1 + 3.2 previews + 1.35 = 49.65 for now.

Edited October 5, 2018 by dtairdryZid

[Valonqar]

yes, Venom, yes! 

 

great for ASIB too. 

[Hades]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's also funny to watch a decade later because now the asshole best friend (Chris Pratt) is the biggest star in the cast. 

 

He has half the talent of James Mcavoy though...

[Gavin Feng]

Title    Previews    OW    Previews/OW

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp    $11.5     $75.8     15.2%

Avengers: Infinity War    $39.0     $257.7     15.1%

Black Panther    $25.2     $202.0     12.5%

Thor: Ragnarok    $14.5     $122.7     11.8%

Spider-Man: Homecoming    $15.4     $117.0     13.2%

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2    $17.0     $146.5     11.6%

Doctor Strange    $9.4     $85.1     11.0%

Captain America: Civil War    $25.0     $179.1     14.0%

Ant-Man    $6.4     $57.2     11.2%

Avengers: Age of Ultron    $27.6     $191.3     14.4%

Guardians of the Galaxy    $11.2     $94.3     11.9%

Captain America: The Winter Soldier    $10.2     $95.0     10.7%

 

TASM2    $8.7     $91.6     9.5%

 

DP2    $18.6     $125.5     14.8%

DP    $12.7     $132.4     9.6%

Logan    $9.5     $88.4     10.7%

Apocalypse    $8.0     $65.8     12.2%

DOFP    $8.1     $90.8     8.9%

 

JL    $13.0     $93.8     13.9%

WW    $11.0     $103.3     10.7%

SS    $20.5     $133.7     15.3%

BvS    $27.7     $166.0     16.7%

[MCKillswitch123]

19 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

What is Gitesh thinking?

 

Anyway, great numbers for both. October is off to an exciting start for sure.

Said no one ever until this year(, perhaps).

 

Strong numbers for Venom, even taking the 5PM start in account. ASIB may have some frontloadness, but I believe its internal multiplier will still be insane, given the demographic it appeals to.

 

Next week, the #1 race will be amazing between Venom, ASIB and First Man. And then Halloween in the week later. Don't see a billion sized October, but it'll more than likely be the biggest one ever without sweating.

Edited October 5, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Eric the Fall Guy]

22 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's gonna be a very strong final quarter of 2018. Halloween is projected to open to $60M+ in two weeks and then the plethora of November/December blockbusters are coming along.

It'd be funny if Venom got the October weekend, only for Halloween to swoop in and make more. Would basically be like Monster's Inc/Sorcerer's Stone back in '01