Bohemian Rhapsody OS: $684M OS | $900M WW

[Valonqar]

Just now, feasby007 said:

Why is Japan the only market where home video is still huge 😠😠😠😠

right? they are society from the future in everything except that. 

[SchumacherFTW]

5 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

right? they are society from the future in everything except that. 

Hahaha look in to Japan a bit more, and that really isn't the case. 

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

right? they are society from the future in everything except that. 

Tbh though I'd rather that than them being obsessed with streaming like the rest of the western world. At least they get to physically keep their copies for life, and the movies make more (albeit not accounted into BO)

[KP1025]

16 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

It's within the realm of possibility, yes. 

 

A long shot? Perhaps, but Japan is a very unpredictable market with these leggy films. The major worry at the moment is that movies usually have a big drop off there when the home release happens, which I believe is late March. Meaning BR has to gain as much as possible until then. (Frozen for example had lots of money left on the table, but didn't get it because Disney released it on DVD)

 

According to Amazon.jp, the Blu-ray date for Bohemian Rhapsody is now March 14 (was previously March 31 when I checked a month ago).

 

Regarding Frozen, it was a trade-off where they wanted to capitalize on Blu-ray sales right at the start of summer vacation. It did end up the highest selling Blu-ray of all-time in Japan, but who knows if it was worth the sacrifice at the box office. I believe it was Corpse or POTUS who posted it would have finished north of $300 million without the early home release (thus beating Spirited Away as all-time highest film in Japan).

Edited January 13, 2019 by KP1025

[MattW]

Here's what I have for weekly updates:

 

Oct 28:    12.2

Nov  4:    91.7 (+79.5)

Nov 11: 185.3 (+93.6)

Nov 18: 256.4 (+71.1; -24.0%)

Nov 25: 320.3 (+63.9; -10.1%)

Dec 2:   375.7 (+55.4; -13.3%)

Dec 9:   423.0 (+47.3; -14.6%)

Dec 16: 455.5 (+32.5; -31.3%)

Dec 23: 482.2 (+26.7; -17.8%)

Dec 30: 513.3 (+31.1; +16.5%)

Jan 6:    550.0 (+36.7; +18.0%)

Jan 13:  575.55 (+25.55; -30.4%)

 

$625m maybe? 

Edited January 15, 2019 by MattW

[KATCH-2D2]

Considering this has a home vdo release in most countries earlier next month, should we expect it to pass $600m OS still? I wish FOX wouldn't decide to release the home vdo so soon. I've had a lot of fun following the BO run of this movie. The most surprised and impressive OS box office run in my recent memory.

[Stewart]

6 minutes ago, KATCH-2D2 said:

Considering this has a home vdo release in most countries earlier next month, should we expect it to pass $600m OS still? I wish FOX wouldn't decide to release the home vdo so soon. I've had a lot of fun following the BO run of this movie. The most surprised and impressive OS box office run in my recent memory.

It'll get past $600m OS with Japan only... Nevermind the rest of the countries it is still playing in!

[Stewart]

32 minutes ago, MattW said:

$625m maybe? 

 

3 hours ago, feasby007 said:

Furthermore it had the 3rd best 10th weekend, beating Avatar and Your Name..

 

The amount of money left to get from Japan is anywhere from $40m (about what Avatar got after its 10th weekend at current ER) to $85m (About what Your Name. got after its 10th weekend).

 

However, literally it beat both this weekend... It could see even more than that... $900m WW is not out of the question. (Albeit incredibly difficult, but it's >0.1% chance)

 

You might wanna look at previous page

[KATCH-2D2]

7 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

 

 

You might wanna look at previous page

Good to know Japan can't have it on blu-ray until March. I really want this to reach 800 ww! 

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, KATCH-2D2 said:

Good to know Japan can't have it on blu-ray until March. I really want this to reach 800 ww! 

Dream bigger, your current wish is guaranteed  

[titanic2187]

Can we all have a petition for asking Fox to delay the home release by 2 weeks?  

[KATCH-2D2]

2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Can we all have a petition for asking Fox to delay the home release by 2 weeks?  

The released date has already been advertised everywhere. And to think ASIB which came out before this movie won't have it's home release until March or something. FOX really being short-sighted when they decided on the home vdo release of BR. 

[pepsa]

It's hold in Italy were almost flat, increases in Japan and Germany. So I do think this will get over $600m OS by next weekend

[peludo]

41 minutes ago, pepsa said:

It's hold in Italy were almost flat, increases in Japan and Germany. So I do think this will get over $600m OS by next weekend

In Spain, last weekend (January 4-6), it did €532k. This weekend is being reported, as provisional data, €700k. It means, as minimum (we'll see with definitive numbers), a 34% increase 

[Olive]

100M in Japan is a walk in the park.

[a2k]

BR WW-China (same as BR WW) and AQM WW-China will be close but BR could finish higher.

AQM is on 733 WW-China with 45-55 to come from Dom and 50-60 OS-China giving a range of 825-850.

Edited January 14, 2019 by a2k

[pepsa]

10 minutes ago, Olive said:

100M in Japan is a walk in the park.

With this weekends increase we can expect more than $50m more right? 

[Stewart]

8 minutes ago, pepsa said:

With this weekends increase we can expect more than $50m more right? 

Likely yes, current range for more is anything from $40m to $80m at the moment (based on its 10th weekend). However with the impending home release mid March, it's probably the lower half of that range. But this is Japan, so it could explode even more and go beyond that $80m...

[pepsa]

This weekend locked $850m tbh (unless it drops very hard next weekend), first I thought now way but I did some calculations taking in to account it's hold from the last few weeks and damm...

 

So the range of Japan is $25m - $65m (from @feasby007) 

DOM it did an $3.5m WE so atleast 2.5 times this weekend

OS-Japan: it did $11.4m this weekend, and $17.3m this week (Japan had a $3.7m WE and $3.2m weekdays)

 

Taking in to account that last week most schools were still out the 34.1% is misleading  and I think a better comparison is the week of dec 23th. when it did 26.7m for the whole week. So I would say the drop is more along the lines of 9.5% drop. The weekend drop this week was 10.7% WE too WE, however Japan did increase this weekend so the overall drop for OS-Jap would be more along the lines of 13%. (Japan only dropped 2.6%). So I don’t see why it would slow down in the next 2-3 weeks before the dvd release.

So taking all this in to account I think it’s fair to say we will get atleast 3x multi from this OS WE.

 

Using all this we get:

Japan: $25m-$65m (with possibility to go even crazier but that’s not a likely scenario)

Os-Japan: $11.4m*3 = $34.2m => $24m low-end and $65m optimistically

DOM: 8m-16m (high end if it gets some Oscars and a re-expansion.

 

So we get at least an extra $67.2m WW => add $772.7m and you get $839.9m as the floor (wtf??)

If we take the high end it’s an extra $161m and we get $933.7m WW.

Realistically I would say $870m to $895m is the range where it will land.

 

EDIT: I have changed the Japan numbes, they were misscalculated and changed all the other numbers accordingly, sincere apologies for the inconvenience. 

Edited January 14, 2019 by pepsa

[titanic2187]

22 minutes ago, pepsa said:

This weekend locked $850m tbh, first I thought now way but I did some calculations taking in to account it's hold from the last few weeks and damm...

 

So the range of Japan is $40m - $80m (from @feasby007) 

DOM it did an $3.5m WE so atleast 2.5 times this weekend

OS-Japan: it did $11.4m this weekend, and $17.3m this week (Japan had a $3.7m WE and $3.2m weekdays)

 

Taking in to account that last week most schools were still out the 34.1% is misleading  and I think a better comparison is the week of dec 23th. when it did 26.7m for the whole week. So I would say the drop is more along the lines of 9.5% drop. The weekend drop this week was 10.7% WE too WE, however Japan did increase this weekend so the overall drop for OS-Jap would be more along the lines of 13%. (Japan only dropped 2.6%). So I don’t see why it would slow down in the next 2-3 weeks before the dvd release.

So taking all this in to account I think it’s fair to say we will get atleast 3x multi from this OS WE.

 

Using all this we get:

Japan: $40m-$80m (with possibility to go even crazier but that’s not a likely scenario)

Os-Japan: $11.4m*3 = $34.2m => $24m low-end and $65m optimistically

DOM: 8m-16m (high end if it gets some Oscars and a re-expansion.

 

So we get at least an extra $82.2m WW => add $772.7m and you get $854.9m as the floor (wtf??)

If we take the high end it’s an extra $161m and we get $933.7m WW.

Realistically I would say $885m to $910m is the range where it will land.

I will not going 885m that high now, will see if the film really can get Oscar nomination for best picture. I believe this weekend increase in many countries can be attributed to GG win. And Oscar nomination alone will replicate that trick.

 

Check out La la land, wolf of wall street, Life of Pi, Django Unchained, The revenant, some oscar blockubuster, you will find that European countries are sensitive to oscar buzz. While i didn't expect the BR to do that well after the nomination, but we are going into Oscar's week with 20m per week! Th business is still significant enough and It is a cultural phenomena in Europe and Japan, certainly Oscar buzz is going to push it further.

 

If Fox willing to push for more sing-along event, and more screens, then I will consider 850m above is within reach.