Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings | Marvel Studios | 92% RT & 99% VA Score | ONLY IN THEATERS Sep 3 2021

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

40M ?? Fiuuuu i will not buy pineapple pizza 😌

You’ll escape the 🍍 because your 🍍range was 75-85 and it will go over 85

[Krissykins]

Did Paramount see Deadlines $45-50m tracking number for this and panic? 😂

[fede75]

the wrap and deadline scared paramount(? lol

[Krissykins]

3 minutes ago, fede75 said:

the wrap and deadline scared paramount(? lol

The numbers might have lol

[fede75]

variety says 50 million the first 3 days with possiblity of 60 million

[SpiderByte]

4 hours ago, Krissykins said:

The numbers might have lol

Lmao so in the (likely) event those numbers are higher they'll feel real stupid right.

[Impact]

Posted this in the weekend prediction thread, but here:

After 14 years it looks like the Labor Day weekend will finally be broken!

Now we just need something to finally get rid of Hannah Montana as being the biggest Superbowl opening. 

Oh and I Think Saw 3 is still the biggest Halloween opening, so something for that too!

[TigerPaw]

They have to make this domestic prediction so it seems that global opening will be less than 100m, so when actuals get above 100m (by some margin), then "it beats tracking". Bolds well for Disney's stock price too. Lol. 

[Cooper Legion]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

You love tempting fate, don'tcha?   I mean,  I think it's going over 8, but... 

 

...

 

Lemme put it this way.

 

IN NO WAY ON GOD'S GREEN EARTH WOULD SHANG-CHI DOING "ONLY" 75M ON THE FOUR DAY BE WORTHY OF A MELTDOWN.

 

Like, I get the joke you're going for.  But, no.  Not remotely.

Gonna continue over here.    
 

In short — I am not joking, and I disagree. 75M from here would require a brutally bad Wednesday and or Thursday and/or internal behavior, and I would consider it a legit case of crumbling. I think a lot of other people wouldn’t, but that’s just because they aren’t paying as close attention to the MTC run vs BW.
 

I gave 86M for BW because I felt it was a real lowball. For that movie I was, I think, pretty well calibrated with broader board expectations — but I have no particular concern for that. I gave 21 for TSS as an approximately comparable level of lowball. For that movie I was, I think, more pessimistic than the broader board expectations — but I have no particular concern for that. And I think 80M for the 4day here is again, pretty lowballing. For this movie I am, I think, considerably more optimistic than the broader board expectations — but I have no particular concern for that.   
 

If it does come in under then I will consider that perhaps my methodology is flawed and err even more on the low side, but if it comes in over I don’t see much need to adjust things. You can just consider that my seeming optimism was in fact realism.

Edited September 2, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[RRA]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

They have to make this domestic prediction so it seems that global opening will be less than 100m, so when actuals get above 100m (by some margin), then "it beats tracking". Bolds well for Disney's stock price too. Lol. 

Obviously and it'll probably work. Look at how many people threw babies in the air for the OW numbers that (other recent Disney-owned releases) Free Guy and Jungle Cruise because they beat tracking. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Lokis Legion said:

Gonna continue over here.    
 

In short — I am not joking, and I disagree. 75M from here would require a brutally bad Wednesday and or Thursday and/or internal behavior, and I would consider it a legit case of crumbling. I think a lot of other people wouldn’t, but that’s just because they aren’t paying as close attention to the MTC run vs BW.
 

I gave 86M for BW because I felt it was a real lowball. For that movie I was, I think, pretty well calibrated with broader board expectations — but I have no particular concern for that. I gave 21 for TSS as an approximately comparable level of lowball. For that movie I was, I think, more pessimistic than the broader board expectations — but I have no particular concern for that. And I think 80M for the 4day here is again, pretty lowballing. For this movie I am, I think, considerably more optimistic than the broader board expectations — but I have no particular concern for that.   
 

If it does come in under then I will consider that perhaps my methodology is flawed and err even more on the low side, but if it comes in over I don’t see much need to adjust things. 

 

My objection is using the word "meltdown".

 

Everything you say can be true and 80m is STILL not worthy of a "meltdown".

 

If you're really trying to say "this is the floor" or "if everything goes wrong, this should be the minimum and if it does under that, that's bad", that's fine.  Perfectly good with that. 

 

I take issue with something radically over-performing tracking (as flawed as it might be) be considered worthy of a "meltdown", especially in these Delta times.

 

What's worthy of a meltdown?  TS4's OW back in 2019 qualifies, IMO. Hell, TSS's OW qualified, IMO.  So did ITH's.

 

SC doing "only" 75m or 80m on the 4-day?  Not remotely.

 

All IMO, of course.

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

What's worthy of a meltdown?  TS4's OW back in 2019 qualifies, IMO. Hell, TSS's OW qualified, IMO.  So did ITH's.

I disagree on this. Deadline making ridiculous 200 million projections from one day of PS that ignored the fact that TS4 opened presales way later than I2 should not make something qualify as a meltdown. It underperformed PS tracking by around 10-15 million which is not that bad. If it is meltdown-worthy it was entirely caused by Deadline going wild. 

Edited September 2, 2021 by Menor

[Cooper Legion]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

My objection is using the word "meltdown".

 

Everything you say can be true and 80m is STILL not worthy of a "meltdown".

 

If you're really trying to say "this is the floor" or "if everything goes wrong, this should be the minimum and if it does under that, that's bad", that's fine.  Perfectly good with that. 

 

I take issue with something radically over-performing tracking (as flawed as it might be) be considered worthy of a "meltdown", especially in these Delta times.

 

What's worthy of a meltdown?  TS4's OW back in 2019 qualifies, IMO. Hell, TSS's OW qualified, IMO.  So did ITH's.

 

SC doing "only" 75m or 80m on the 4-day?  Not remotely.

 

All IMO, of course.

 

 

Yeah, so now we’re in more of a linguistic discussion. Iirc when I first did this I called it a “meltdown/flop/crumbling bar” — terms which, I hope, conveyed the somewhat tongue-in-cheek nature of the endeavor to begin with (going down to the 1s place is also intended to convey this). Those 3 aren’t perfectly aligned, and while I have often shortened it as a meltdown bar probably “crumbling” comes closest to the essence of my considerations when picking a number. Which is that, based on info early in the week of release, it should be a number that is very likely to be passed but not completely guaranteed. This is so as to preserve some meaning to a claim of “it went over so I’m happy enough vs it went under so I’m disappointed” at the end of the whole shebang.
 

Now considering media expectations and the previous Labor 4day record of 30.6, I could just set a bar of 61.2 and call it a day, but this is totally un informative because it’s definitely going to beat that bar. I might as well choose $31M or $3M or whatever. So I’m aiming for, I guess about a 10th percentile performance. 90% “this went well enough considering what we knew” and 10% “ouch, this is not necessarily a financial flop per se but thing between when I set the bar and now went pretty dang poorly.”

Edited September 2, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Cooper Legion]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

or "if everything goes wrong, this should be the minimum and if it does under that, that's bad"

Tl; dr this ^

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

What's worthy of a meltdown?  TS4's OW back in 2019 qualifies, IMO. Hell, TSS's OW qualified, IMO.  So did ITH's.

 

SC doing "only" 75m or 80m on the 4-day?  Not remotely.

Jokes apart I think 4 days below $70M will be worrying after seeing pre-sales, under $65M will probably be meltdown worthy, considering how FG opened $28M 3 days and Candyman $22M.

 

[Cooper Legion]

But I also want to be clear that this is really chosen with zero regard for “official tracking.” Not worth the pixels its displayed on, and 0 impact on my evaluation of a movies OW performance.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

I disagree on this. Deadline making ridiculous 200 million projections from one day of PS that ignored the fact that TS4 opened presales way later than I2 should not make something qualify as a meltdown. It underperformed PS tracking by around 10-15 million which is not that bad. If it is meltdown-worthy it was entirely caused by Deadline going wild. 

 

One the one hand, fair enough, as I tend to agree.  On the other hand, aren't meltdowns partially or even mostly fueled by collective expectations?  

 

Deadline goosed expectations.  Hell, the tracking thread goosed expectations until it started to dawn on us that something was going wrong.  Not going to go back through the tracking thread, but I seem to recall 150m - 175m as something of an expected range and it came in at 135m.

 

But, fine.  Point taken.  Consider TS4 withdrawn as an example

 

...

 

Don't make me pull out the Solo card though, coz I absolutely will. 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, Menor said:

It underperformed PS tracking by around 10-15 million which is not that bad

IIRC TS4 missed Disney projection of $140M which is never a great result.

 

What Disney usually put as projection can surely be taken as meltdown bar.

Edited September 2, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Cooper Legion]

Put another way, there is no point in issuing an actual meltdown bar for a movie where collective expectations are so miscalibrated on the low side that the level of performance which would trigger a for realsies meltdown can’t actually happen.    
 

I will shorten it to “crumbling bar” in the future for such cases, and likely continue to use “meltdown bar” if the collective expectations are well-calibrated such that my 10th percentile target actually does risk some real melting down.

Edited September 2, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Yeah, so now we’re in more of a linguistic discussion. Iirc when I first did this I called it a “meltdown/flop/crumbling bar” — terms which, I hope, conveyed the somewhat tongue-in-cheek nature of the endeavor to begin with (going down to the 1s place is also intended to convey this). Those 3 aren’t perfectly aligned, and while I have often shortened it as a meltdown bar probably “crumbling” comes closest to the essence of my considerations when picking a number, which is that, based on info early in the week of release, it should be a number that is very likely to be passed, but not completely guaranteed. This is so as to preserve some meaning to a claim of “it went over so I’m happy enough vs it went under so I’m disappointed” at the end of the whole shebang

 

*snipping the second paragraph since I pretty much agree with it*

 

This is kinda the thing though.  When you created this little term for Black Widow it was 100 percent apparent it was a somewhat tongue in cheek term because of the surrounding commentary of the movie in the thread.  I just think as time goes on and folks filter in and out of various topics, that's gonna get lost.

 

Like, some random lurker pops in here and just sees this post completely devoid of all context?

 

9 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

Meltdown bar $80,366,312

 

 

I mean... I kinda wanted to say at the time, "You know Lokis Legion you keep using the word 'meltdown' folks are gonna start to believe you."

 

I do want to add I'm not trying to be the "No Fun Police".  I just think... I just think meltdowns and collective expectations go hand in hand and especially in a time of Delta.

 

(anything else I have to say is probably repeating myself too much and not worthy trying to phrase it exactly [that's why my response has been taking a bit])