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That One Girl

Dec 21-23 Weekend Thread | Sat#'s (Asgard pg 60) - Aqua 21.8, MPR 8.8, BB 7.2, SMSV 6.9, Mule 3.8 | Discuss Pitbull's musical work here

By That One Girl, in Numbers and Data

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I don't think it would be fair to make a WWW thread for Poppins, considering it will still have a very respectable total. But I'm curious as to where the discrepancy between BOT expectations and box office reality came in. I mean, we're generally pretty good at predicting box office, but the vast majority of us had this as 300+ (or even 400). 

 

Something like Beasts is a bit easier (it sucked). But this had the Disney promo behind it, good reviews, (supposedly) good WOM, and a Christmas release. Why wasn't it able to catch on? 

What promo? I haven’t seen a single ad for this film. In fact, if I wasn’t an Emily Blunt fan I probably wouldn’t have known this movie was coming out. 

 

It feels like Disney was banking on this movie getting rave reviews and having those reviews do the promo for the film as opposed to giving it a full fledged marketing campaign. That clearly backfired on them. 

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I don't think it would be fair to make a WWW thread for Poppins, considering it will still have a very respectable total. But I'm curious as to where the discrepancy between BOT expectations and box office reality came in. I mean, we're generally pretty good at predicting box office, but the vast majority of us had this as 300+ (or even 400). 

 

Something like Beasts is a bit easier (it sucked). But this had the Disney promo behind it, good reviews, (supposedly) good WOM, and a Christmas release. Why wasn't it able to catch on? 

Well, we have to wait to see if it does 1st:)...

 

As for over-expecting and under-delivering, it could be a host of things...

1. Bad release date choice...moving to Dec 19 did no favors for this movie - no schools were out, and it was too early - I think originally this was supposed to be a Xmas Day release.  That may have been the better plan, b/c it would have gotten the press and stolen the screens following the weekend openers, but for now, it's literally on ONE screen at 12s...that's a recipe for going small...

2. Bad release date choice #2 - Surprisingly, The Mule was good and has become a choice for the older audience that may have come early to watch 1st...

3. Bad release date choice #3 - So many family movies abound...if they'd have waited til Xmas, they could have had all the Grinch screens and those families, but for now, lots are choosing to really enjoy Christmas movies right now (and Ralph is still there, Bumblebee opened, and even Spidey and Aquaman are drawing).  5 family movies all drawing right now is a TON for the market to handle.

3. NO TICKET DEAL:)...Aquaman offered $5 off 2 tickets...MP2 offered nothing.  And now most theaters have no discounts through the season.  Goes to show, when families still can't get movie subscriptions, if you want to bring them in, you gotta cut them a deal somehow (I just saw MP2 now has a deal with Subway Kids Meals that I didn't see til today...that's really late)...this may affect more than MP2, but we're only talking MP2:)...

4. No memorable music/moments - musicals tend to live on them, and for now, most folks have said "fun, happy, but not memorable..."  That's "Not great, Bob" for a musical...

5. Only one star - for now, the word is that only Emily is worth seeing in the cast...but original MP had so many moments sung by more than just the MP character...

 

I can keep going...the inability to draw teen/young adult males was baked in, so I can't blame that fact, since few musicals ever really get that audience:)...

 

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Manny G Indie Sensation

Manny G

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I started seeing more commercials for MPR around last week.  Not much before that.   Aquaman,  on the other hand,  I've seen tons of promo.   Same for Spider-Man. 

 

When will Disney stop trying to live off nostalgia and give us something original.  

I think that WB’s massive Aquaman  global promo tour really overshadowed all the December releases To be honest. Their TV presence was flawless as well with each member of the core cast touring every morning and late shows. Hell they even got Momoa a SNL gig (which is no small feat).

 

all the other movies just looked like second choice next their Marketing blitz 

Edited by Manny G
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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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Taking a look at Tallahassee's showtimes tonight.... yeah, I can buy that Poppins number. That said, tomorrow is looking pretty big. Aquaman and Bumblebee are looking good tonight at least. I may have to do a day-long ticket sale count tonight; I haven't done one of those in a long time.

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Valonqar Global Phenomenon

Valonqar

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No matter how MPR turns out, comparison to The Greatest Showman is ridiculous cause MPR was hyped to be big from the day it was announced. Like, literally all media and most of BOT were chanting this-gonna-be-big. OW was supposed to be big. Legs were supposed to be long. This was not an underdog that overcame bad marketing, bad reviews and bad OW and soar on WOM alone. The movie was hyped as the biggest holiday movie. Move over Aquaman, MPR's gonna be #1 with 400M dom and 1B WW. There are receipts everywhere. Then, weeks before release, awards bodies started to put it on their Top 10s and nominate for Picture and Actress. Reviews are generally strong so the movie has nothing going against it and therefore should have performed to expectations which were sky high. And yet here we are. And it's tanking in Europe save UK, no? 

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Valonqar Global Phenomenon

Valonqar

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MPR was overpredicted because many people, not just here but in media, did not believe in Aquaman. It's very simple. Despite the evidence to the contrary, that anticipation was through the roof, people underestimated Aquaman and started to look for champions elsewhere, from MPR to legs-will-pull-Spidey/BB-to-the-top. I get it, DC blew it with JL but it obviously didn't affect Aquaman cause trailers hyped GA and they seem to really love Jason in this role. 

 

So yeah, it's really down to AquaWave. It's real. It's always been, just many didn't believe in it. 

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Barnack Global Phenomenon

Barnack

Posted
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

No matter how MPR turns out, comparison to The Greatest Showman is ridiculous cause MPR was hyped to be big from the day it was announced

You are right imo, a way to resume the list of element was Showman under 10m OW, that a different kind of movie multiplier wise, Showman multiplier is more than 2x Avatar, the only movie to open above 16m to have a better multiplier in history is freaking Titanic.

 

Something like Sing (7.7x), Cast Away (8.1x) or even Jumanji (11x) at a limit do sound more reasonable than the totally out of no where once in a lifetime affair that was GTS that was possible only because of the very small start, thinking of a 19-20x multi for a franchise movie starting over 20m like MPR, that something that just never happened, Christmas is a bit dangerous the number of year the 25th was exactly that far of the movie opening weekend is rare, too, but it sound really unlikely.

 

28 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

And it's tanking in Europe save UK, no? 

Italy did seem to have a strong number 1 start.

Edited by Barnack
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Alli Blockbuster

Alli

Posted
Posted (edited)

there are people who don't like old movies, don't like black and white movies. Poppins is too old and maybe those people associate it with not cool/ grandma movies which are not hip. i have not seen the movie, but did they modernize it or is it the same style?

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TomCruiseTop Box Office Gold

TomCruiseTop

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Alli said:

there are people who don't like old movies, don't like black and white movies. Poppins is too old and maybe those people associate it with not cool/ grandma movies which are not hip. i have not seen the movie, but did they mordenize it?

MP is also extremely white and middle/upper-class. That strata of society just doesn't resonate with modern audiences like it once did, much to societies own great fortune. 

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Alli Blockbuster

Alli

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

MP is also extremely white and middle/upper-class. That strata of society just doesn't resonate with modern audiences like it once did, much to societies own great fortune. 

Bingo. I think you perfectly summed up why it's not connecting with people

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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Nova said:

Reading Wednesday’s thread and this weekend thread like damn why do so many of you guys hate Mary Poppins? Because people on here over predicted it? It wouldn’t be the first movie that people over predict and it won’t be the last. But reading some of the comments you’d think the movie was bombing or something. 

Some people here get so triggered by certain things or people. See @TombRaider and JLo. Or @La Binoche and Mary Poppins. It's like, it's not enough for someone to say they didn't like a film and/or it's underperforming, They have to get ANGRY about it!!!!!

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