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Litio

4-day Weekend Official| Alita $33.50M, Lego $27.75m, Isn't Romantic $16.64M, WMW $12.21m, HDD2U $11m

By Litio, in Numbers and Data

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Alita's WoM is really good among nerd circles, not sure how the older and family audiences will feel but we'll see depending on the 2nd weekend.

My ex-manager I saw it with (64 years old) LOVED it. I thought it was alright, I definitely think older audiences will be wowed by it moreso than younger (say, 18-30) audiences who aren't already enamored with the source material. 

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Maxmoser3 Blockbuster

Maxmoser3

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Sleepy weekend this weekend. 1st quarter looking like 2013.  

 

This has been the least eventful Presidents’ Day since 2013/2014. But at least you had Safe Haven’s crazier box office performance outgross Die Hard and Identity Thief almost winning. 2014 was dreadful, lots of front loading and the legs of LEGO 1. 

 

Alita’s lead isn’t bad but that budget is trouble. But it’s debut is better than Ghost In The Shell or The Great Wall. Overseas  should help it. For its domestic total $70 million seems doable.

 

The LEGO movie 2 wasn’t the number one movie again as it’s past two February outings were. The hold wasnt too bad considering its terrible debut but still $95-$105 million total seem likely. It will be interesting to see how this can pull out next weekend with How To Train Your Dragon 3. 

 

Out of all the Valentine’s Day releases, Isn’t It Romantic had the least harmless of debuts(when you count budgets). It’s under How To Be Single or I Feel Pretty... but not too bad of a start for a romantic comedy. Considering how  comedies  been somewhat absent for a while, it’s still decent to see two romantic comedies making small profits overall. Romantic should kiss its way around $45-$50 million total.

 

Other romantic comedy flick, What Men Want had a decent hold. It definitely won’t even come close to half of the 2000 flick, but should be redeemed profitable for Paramount... considering how they were two years ago. $50 million shouldn’t be too bad.

 

Horror sequel Happy Death Day 2U, didn’t celebrate a happy opening weekend. It’s debut and 5-day debut is almost less than half of the original’s $26 million debut back in October 2017. Which was originally expected to do high teens in its tracking back in October 2017. So considering that Happy Death Day 2U is pulling a Sinister 2 like start, it will be definitely be a massive drop off from its predecessor. So a total under Sinister 2’s $27.7 million, seems likely.

 

Cold Pursuit’s drop off Is actually decent with 41% drop. Considering The Commuter last winter dropped over 50%. It is also an improvement from the more comparable R-rated Neeson fare such as Run All Night(54%), A Walk Among The Tombstones(67%), and The Grey(around 53%). Overall the film may play a few more weeks, but should  come close to $30 million.

 

The Upside is still pulling strong as it’s nearing $100 million domestic. The Upside’s run is by far the best box office story so far in 2019! 

 

Glass held fine. A total on-par with The Nun or The Village seems likely. Not bad for Universal considering this is coming after two weeks of flops(Mortal Engines and Welcome To Marwen). 

 

The Prodigy... yeah it’s a horror film with Piper from Orange Is The New Black. So that’s it.

 

Green Book still turning out to be a decent success. Spidey still doing well. Aqua man outgrossed BVS but should pull in some cash relaunching before home video.

 

overall 2019 box office is staring off dull. Captain Marvel should pull in a crowd. As for the rest it’s tough to decide. I’m still thinking Dragon will do $38-$43 million, however it may actually outperform the LEGO sequel, which none of us expected earlier in the year. 

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
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3 hours ago, Maxmoser3 said:

 

Alita’s lead isn’t bad but that budget is trouble. But it’s debut is better than Ghost In The Shell or The Great Wall. Overseas  should help it. For its domestic total $70 million seems doable.

 

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

No way imo is this capping out at 70 million.

 

Die Hard 5-day was 4.5x the OD, while 41 5-day will give Alita 4.7x the OD (including 2.4 previews). I expected the 2.4 previews to front-load the OD enough to not let Alita match Die Hard's 4.5x but it's trending and WOM are much better.

 

Die Hard Dom ended up being 1.83x the 5-day ow in 2013. Alita should continue to trend better and as we add more days the preview front-loading will matter less.

 

The minimum it will do IMO is 2.0-2.1x the 5-day, 82-86 dom.

While will be difficult to beat 2.5-2.6x the 5-day, 103-107 dom.

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

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One other way to guess Alita is too look at legs of very well received Kingsman1. That opened over the same weekend but on Fri instead of Thu as with Alita. Kingsman1's Dom was 3.45x the FSS.

 

As Alita opened on Thu let's first ignore Thu, give it 3.45x the FSS and add Thu in the end.

That gives 28 FSS * 3.45x + 8.7 Thu = 105

 

As we are removing Thu from the multiplier calc, we are also removing Wed previews from the multiplier calc thus making the situation positive for Alita. So I feel beating 105 is tough unless the wom is that much superior to Kingsman1.

 

Once we get the Mon numbers we can do the same using FSSM for both Kingsman1 and Alita.

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