4-day Weekend Official| Alita $33.50M, Lego $27.75m, Isn't Romantic $16.64M, WMW $12.21m, HDD2U $11m

[The Futurist]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Story wise I felt it would’ve suited being a Netflix series tbh.

A  500m Netfix series then.

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, The Futurist said:

A  500m Netfix series then.

Hence why I said story wise

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, TombRaider said:

plus the more interesting part about this is alita's 'birth', how she discovers the world, how she she starts fighting, etc... a sequel will have way less appeal

True for pretty much all heroes.

 

7 minutes ago, TombRaider said:

why the fuck would they invest on a sequel to a movie that will do 2x its budget???

If it happen, probably for the same reason of the first one, in exchange for the chance to invest in a Avatar sequels if Avatar 2 is a big success (and if this something Cameron kept the right to do).

[TombRaider]

48 minutes ago, Firepower said:

It'll do more than x2 of its budget, some sequels were greenlight with worse results.

Lionsgate could do it, they would be very happy to participate in 500 mln grosser produced by James Cameron. Also Netflix, but that's not the best option considering it's very much big screen experience. 

which ones??? name a blockbuster that got a sequel with a 2-2,5x

[chuck0]

7 minutes ago, TombRaider said:

which ones??? name a blockbuster that got a sequel with a 2-2,5x

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=pacificrim.htm

[IronJimbo]

a smell a sequel

[junkshop36]

25 minutes ago, chuck0 said:

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=pacificrim.htm

 

Yea,  and how’d that work out?

[SLAM!]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Story wise I felt it would’ve suited being a Netflix series tbh.

 

I feel that's gotta be true for most anime series.

[a2k]

2 hours ago, Barnack said:

It tend to be more the other way around, if the smaller theatrical revenues achieve to eat the marketing releasing costs, you are usually in good shape for the bigger non theatrical revenues to cover the production and turn a profit.

 

If we look at the recent trend

Warner brothers revenues in movies their last 3 annual report:

 

	In money				In %
	2017	2016	2015		2017	2016	2015
Theatrical Rentals	2,268	2,180	1,578		38%	39%	31%
Home and electronic delivery	1,567	1,481	1,717		26%	26%	33%
Movie playing on TV	1,853	1,630	1,579		31%	29%	31%
Merchandise	350	321	269		6%	6%	5%
Total	6,038	5,612	5,143

 

 

Universal studio (pretty much the same):

	2018	2017	2016		2018	2017	2016
Theatrical Rentals	2,111	2,192	1,560		30%	29%	25%
Home and electronic delivery	1,048	1,287	1,182		15%	17%	19%
Movie playing on TV	2,899	2,956	2,518		41%	39%	40%
Merchandise	1,094	1,160	969		15%	15%	16%
Total	7,152	7,595	6,229
If we remove merchandising
Theatrical Rentals	2,111	2,192	1,560		35%	34%	30%
Home and electronic delivery	1,048	1,287	1,182		17%	20%	22%
Movie playing on TV	2,899	2,956	2,518		48%	46%	48%
	6,058	6,435	5,260

 

 

 

 

They made 2.5 to 4 dollar outside the theater versus in theater, that is pumped by library title obviously, but it does seem to indicate that home ent diminution is being picked up by pay TV (probably Netflix effect) nicely.

 

Cameron could have first dollar points, making all calculation and talk about the movie budget a bit fruitless, but the :

Fox contends breakeven is between $350M-$400M, while other finance film sources with knowledge of the budget say it’s significantly more

 

Usually studio could be massaging it down or talking about their own break even point and not the movie break even point (third party venture capitalist investing in those movies do tend to take a larger risk and to break even after the studio) and the finance film source working for the competition will tend to be harsher than reality. But if people accepted no gross point considering the era and risk of the project (possible) and if the real budget is in that 170m range, 350 to 400 would make sense.

 

If we take the first Hotel Transylvania for an example of a 350m to 400m movie (378$ being close to the middle)

 

Revenues

Domestic theatrical: 73.913m

Intl theatrical: 81.376m

Total revenues: 356.802 (75m from tv, around 116 from home ent)

 

That movie would have broke death even at a 195m net production budget (if they kept the world release cost at 108m at that budget).

 

Angry Bird accounting projection model show expecting revenues at $373m WW to support an around $200M net production cost (if no one take bonus at that BO)

 

 

 

thanks for the explanation.

makes me wonder though, why would any movie that does 2x it's prod budget globally not recover it's cost eventually? looks like that should then be the benchmark (unless the prod budget is too less compared to marketing/release like for some horror films)

 

even JL should then well break even or make profit if you look at above non-theatrical revenue.

Edited February 17, 2019 by a2k

[Avatree]

170M for how to Train your dragon  

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

thanks for the explanation.

makes me wonder though, why would any movie that does 2x it's prod budget globally not recover it's cost eventually? looks like that should then be the benchmark (unless the prod budget is too less compared to marketing/release like for some horror films)

 

even JL should then well break even or make profit if you look at above non-theatrical revenue.

 

Not so long ago 2x it's production budget was the benchmark for a movie being a nice success (think back first Captain America/Batman Begin days), since the fall of the dvd bubble pass 2010 and international usually being a larger share, 2x the budget shifted to just break even instead of clear success territory.

 

Many movie can fail to recover their money while doubling their budget because:

1) Some participant have first dollar gross, the real rules of thumb is not box office >= 2.0 x budget, but  Box Office >= 2x (production budget + participation bonus), if you follow the second of all the leaked movies between 2004-2014 from the sony leak, about none lost money, Fincher Dragoon tattoo being a rare exception by a small amount.

 

2) Ultra international heavy

 

3) Much larger releasing cost expecting a much larger box office than obtained, say a small Blum horror movie at 10m budget, but getting an Universal worldwide 75m release, obviously it need to do more than 20m then.

 

JL should then well break even if the rumored cost are true, but the Snyders, Affleck and many others could have participation bonus that kicked-in making it less obvious (like MIB 3 loosing money despite comfortably doubling it's budget, once you consider Smith and others it didn't came close to double it's real budget)

Edited February 17, 2019 by Barnack

[MCKillswitch123]

Jesus Christarius the Fourth, what the fuck is that Wandering Earth number. Could it hit a billion?

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, Avatree said:

170M for how to Train your dragon  

 

I hope that it somehow touches 200M. It was a really beautiful film.

[Avatree]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I hope that it somehow touches 200M. It was a really beautiful film.

Huh?

I don't mean domestic.  I mean it's now at 170 OS. It should easily be at 200M os before US release. Not sure when China is.

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Jesus Christarius the Fourth, what the fuck is that Wandering Earth number. Could it hit a billion?

It's looking to cap at $750m in China as holiday over and it's slowing down. Will need big capital from other countries to get there. I'd say no.

[Mulder]

Maybe it's just because the OVA had the same rushed vibe to it but Alita's pacing didn't bother me personally.

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Avatree said:

Huh?

I don't mean domestic.  I mean it's now at 170 OS. It should easily be at 200M os before US release. Not sure when China is.

Previews next weeked, releases March 1st

[chuck0]

13 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Maybe it's just because the OVA had the same rushed vibe to it but Alita's pacing didn't bother me personally.

yeah, compared to the OVAs the movie takes a lot more time to breath (especially in the first hour or so)

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, TombRaider said:

which ones??? name a blockbuster that got a sequel with a 2-2,5x

 

First Captain America when over 200m gross production budget and got a sequel with a 370.6m box office.

 

Cloudy with a chance of Meatballs did 2.08x (243m / 116.84m) and got a sequel.

 

Angel&Demon got a "sequel" and did 2.56x (496/193.56)

 

xXx state of the union got a sequel and that did under 1.0 (71m on a 72.7m budget)

 

Batman Begin, GI Joe Cobra, X-Men First Class, Mission Impossible 3, the recent Star Treks, etc...

 

 

 

[Stewart]

13 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Maybe it's just because the OVA had the same rushed vibe to it but Alita's pacing didn't bother me personally.

 

1 minute ago, chuck0 said:

yeah, compared to the OVAs the movie takes a lot more time to breath (especially in the first hour or so)

Might be a completely thick question, but what's OVA?