4-day Weekend Official| Alita $33.50M, Lego $27.75m, Isn't Romantic $16.64M, WMW $12.21m, HDD2U $11m

[ImNotExcited]

According to Deadline, Fox puts break even at 350-400M. Does this mean the sequel is happening? 

[TombRaider]

33 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Alita is doing better than expected and before anyone says we expected a flop yes but it could have been Mortal Engines and it isn't even close. also WOM is good. 

alita had 20x the promo ME had so bad comparison

[IronJimbo]

All within my calculations a billie is well within reach now, expect a negative increase drop next weekend

Edited February 17, 2019 by IronJimbo

[TombRaider]

12 minutes ago, ImNotExcited said:

According to Deadline, Fox puts break even at 350-400M. Does this mean the sequel is happening? 

no. it wont have a sequel.

[Frozen]

17 minutes ago, ImNotExcited said:

According to Deadline, Fox puts break even at 350-400M. Does this mean the sequel is happening? 

 

A sequel would have to be made by Disney, so I would no way. 

Edited February 17, 2019 by Frozen

[Firepower]

If Cameron owns rights, he can do the sequel with any other studio.

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, Firepower said:

If Cameron owns rights, he can do the sequel with any other studio.

The thing about the sequel is, I'm not sure if there's going to be any AVATAR downtime for WETA to work on a sequel? Unless they use a different CGI team which I'm not sure they would.

 

WETA will be working right up until Avatar 3 is released so December 2021.

 

So I think they would have maybe the whole of 2022 to work on Alita 2, they'll have to be back on for Avatar 4 by 2023. Maybe it could work.

Edited February 17, 2019 by IronJimbo

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, Firepower said:

If Cameron owns rights, he can do the sequel with any other studio.

He doesn't have this kind of relationship with any other studio though. If we were talking Avatar 2, I am pretty sure any studio would take it up because they will earn a load of money but the sequel to a movie that might barely break even? That would be hard.

[a2k]

27 minutes ago, ImNotExcited said:

According to Deadline, Fox puts break even at 350-400M. Does this mean the sequel is happening? 

Doesn't sound realistic unless they mean current markets (WW sans China and Japan). Just yesterday Deadline was going with 500-550 WW to break-even which makes more sense for a 170 prod budget movie with possibly 150 odd global marketing costs.

 

one way to get 500 ww,

110 dom * 0.50 = 55 (using 50% vs 55% because @Charlie pointed out that studios get smaller ratio of 3d gross)

130 china * 0.25 = 32.5

260 os-china * 0.40 = 104 (230 os-japan-china + 30 japan = 260 os-china)

55 + 32.5 + 104 = 191.5 on 500 ww

These are optimistic legs but that way it goes past it's prod budget with global theatrical returns and can eat into marketing/release costs with non-theatrical revenue.

 

RPO had a 175 prod budget and 583 ww,

138 dom * 0.525 = 72.5 (again using 52.5% vs 55% assuming it did very healthy 3d but less so than Alita's ratio)

220 china * 0.25 = 55

225 os-china * 0.40 = 90

72.5 + 55 + 90 = 217.5 on 583 ww

 

Edited February 17, 2019 by a2k

[SchumacherFTW]

20 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

The thing about the sequel is, I'm not sure if there's going to be any AVATAR downtime for WETA to work on a sequel? Unless they use a different CGI team which I'm not sure they would.

 

WETA will be working right up until Avatar 3 is released so December 2021.

 

So I think they would have maybe the whole of 2022 to work on Alita 2, they'll have to be back on for Avatar 4 by 2023. Maybe it could work.

A company like Weta can work on multiple projects at the same time, otherwise they'd be long out of business. 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, SchumacherFTW said:

A company like Weta can work on multiple projects at the same time, otherwise they'd be long out of business. 

In an interview they said they had some of Avatar's best on Alita, now they're back to Avatar.

 

Hopefully you're right though.

 

Edited February 17, 2019 by IronJimbo

[chuck0]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

In an interview they said they had some of Avatar's best on Alita, now they're back to Avatar.

 

Hopefully you're right though.

 

yeah, there is an interview in which Cameron explicitly states that he moved his WETA Avatar team over to Alita because he was so far behind with writing the script. If he hadnt done that he says that he would have had to let them go (guess assigned to different projects? )

[ThomasNicole]

Cameron could use Avatar sequels success to green light Alita sequels on Disney.

 

$ 450 - 500M is nothing to be ashamed, and this number could grow in the sequels (Asia is getting bigger every year). 

[Barnack]

52 minutes ago, a2k said:

Doesn't sound realistic unless they mean current markets (WW sans China and Japan). Just yesterday Deadline was going with 500-550 WW to break-even which makes more sense for a 170 prod budget movie with possibly 150 odd global marketing costs.

  

one way to get 500 ww,

110 dom * 0.50 = 55 (using 50% vs 55% because @Charlie pointed out that studios get smaller ratio of 3d gross)

130 china * 0.25 = 32.5

260 os-china * 0.40 = 104 (230 os-japan-china + 30 japan = 260 os-china)

55 + 32.5 + 104 = 191.5 on 500 ww

These are optimistic legs but that way it goes past it's prod budget with global theatrical returns and can eat into marketing/release costs with non-theatrical revenue.

It tend to be more the other way around, if the smaller theatrical revenues achieve to eat the marketing releasing costs, you are usually in good shape for the bigger non theatrical revenues to cover the production and turn a profit.

 

If we look at the recent trend

Warner brothers revenues in movies their last 3 annual report:

 

	In money				In %
	2017	2016	2015		2017	2016	2015
Theatrical Rentals	2,268	2,180	1,578		38%	39%	31%
Home and electronic delivery	1,567	1,481	1,717		26%	26%	33%
Movie playing on TV	1,853	1,630	1,579		31%	29%	31%
Merchandise	350	321	269		6%	6%	5%
Total	6,038	5,612	5,143

 

 

Universal studio (pretty much the same):

	2018	2017	2016		2018	2017	2016
Theatrical Rentals	2,111	2,192	1,560		30%	29%	25%
Home and electronic delivery	1,048	1,287	1,182		15%	17%	19%
Movie playing on TV	2,899	2,956	2,518		41%	39%	40%
Merchandise	1,094	1,160	969		15%	15%	16%
Total	7,152	7,595	6,229
If we remove merchandising
Theatrical Rentals	2,111	2,192	1,560		35%	34%	30%
Home and electronic delivery	1,048	1,287	1,182		17%	20%	22%
Movie playing on TV	2,899	2,956	2,518		48%	46%	48%
	6,058	6,435	5,260

 

 

 

 

They made 2.5 to 4 dollar outside the theater versus in theater, that is pumped by library title obviously, but it does seem to indicate that home ent diminution is being picked up by pay TV (probably Netflix effect) nicely.

 

Cameron could have first dollar points, making all calculation and talk about the movie budget a bit fruitless, but the :

Fox contends breakeven is between $350M-$400M, while other finance film sources with knowledge of the budget say it’s significantly more

 

Usually studio could be massaging it down or talking about their own break even point and not the movie break even point (third party venture capitalist investing in those movies do tend to take a larger risk and to break even after the studio) and the finance film source working for the competition will tend to be harsher than reality. But if people accepted no gross point considering the era and risk of the project (possible) and if the real budget is in that 170m range, 350 to 400 would make sense.

 

If we take the first Hotel Transylvania for an example of a 350m to 400m movie (378$ being close to the middle)

 

Revenues

Domestic theatrical: 73.913m

Intl theatrical: 81.376m

Total revenues: 356.802 (75m from tv, around 116 from home ent)

 

That movie would have broke death even at a 195m net production budget (if they kept the world release cost at 108m at that budget).

 

Angry Bird accounting projection model show expecting revenues at $373m WW to support an around $200M net production cost (if no one take bonus at that BO)

 

 

 

Edited February 17, 2019 by Barnack

[Litio]

#	Title	Worldwide Wknd	Intl Wknd	Dom Wknd	Worldwide Cume	Intl Cume	Dom Cume	Intl	Terrs	Dom
1	Wandering Earth, The	$96,943,212	$96,943,212		$609,299,000	$606,867,211	$2,431,789	CHINADIG	3	CMCF
2	Alita: Battle Angel	$83,978,603	$56,178,603	$27,800,000	$130,885,895	$94,369,663	$36,516,232	FOX	86	FOX
3	Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, The	$33,315,000	$12,100,000	$21,215,000	$97,390,359	$34,700,000	$62,690,359	WB	69	WB
4	Crazy Alien	$28,159,438	$28,159,438		$318,494,000	$318,494,000		HGSE	1	ASIA
5	Pegasus	$25,772,195	$25,772,195		$238,460,000	$238,460,000		MULTI	6	CMCF
6	How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World	$21,700,000	$21,700,000		$172,500,000	$172,500,000		UNI	49	UNI
7	Happy Death Day 2U	$21,616,000	$11,800,000	$9,816,000	$25,327,500	$11,800,000	$13,527,500	UNI	41	UNI
8	Isn't It Romantic	$14,210,000		$14,210,000	$20,455,347		$20,455,347			WB
9	What Men Want	$13,120,000	$2,200,000	$10,920,000	$38,650,328	$2,500,000	$36,150,328	PAR	6	PAR
10	Green Book	$11,751,000	$9,000,000	$2,751,000	$126,356,401	$60,600,000	$65,756,401	LGF	59	UNI
11	Boonie Bears: Blast Into The Past	$10,350,698	$10,350,698		$103,264,564	$103,264,564		MULTI	2
12	Extreme Job	$8,597,000	$8,597,000		$107,468,101	$107,227,512	$240,589	MULTI	3	CJE
13	Ralph Breaks The Internet	$7,916,000	$7,000,000	$916,000	$505,403,244	$306,800,000	$198,603,244	DIS	28	DIS
14	Cold Pursuit	$7,510,000	$1,510,000	$6,000,000	$26,381,364	$5,259,032	$21,122,332	MULTI	23	LGF
15	Glass	$7,459,000	$3,600,000	$3,859,000	$234,792,915	$130,300,000	$104,492,915	DIS	44	UNI
16	Fall In Love At First Kiss	$6,295,832	$6,295,832		$21,218,091	$21,218,091		MULTI	7	ASIA
17	Qu'est-ce qu'on a encore fait au Bon	$6,106,000	$6,106,000		$40,464,275	40,464,275		MULTI	2
18	Upside, The	$6,056,000	$466,000	$5,590,000	$103,997,031	$9,800,000	$94,197,031	STX	49	STX
19	Aquaman	$5,285,000	$3,400,000	$1,885,000	$1,130,771,102	$799,400,000	$331,371,102	WB	68	WB
20	Bohemian Rhapsody	$5,152,178	$4,282,178	$870,000	$853,969,090	$642,067,381	$211,901,709	FOX	48	FOX
21	Mule, The	$4,500,000	$4,500,000		$142,797,563	$40,000,000	$102,797,563	WB	44	WB
22	Instant Family	$4,400,000	$4,400,000		$104,663,237	$37,300,000	$67,363,237	PAR	21	PAR
23	Innocent Witness	$4,341,000	$4,341,000		$4,619,613	$4,619,613		LOTTE	1
24	Favourite, The	$4,282,418	$3,712,418	$570,000	$76,663,595	$45,550,310	$31,113,285	FOX	46	FSL
25	Escape Room	$4,220,000	$3,600,000	$620,000	$115,320,767	$59,600,000	$55,720,767	SNY	44	SNY

[TombRaider]

why the fuck would they invest on a sequel to a movie that will do 2x its budget??? plus the more interesting part about this is alita's 'birth', how she discovers the world, how she she starts fighting, etc... a sequel will have way less appeal = worse numbers. the rotten reviews wont help either

 

besides im sure cameron's mind now is on the highly succesful avatar 2-avatar 19 movies

Edited February 17, 2019 by TombRaider

[Krissykins]

Just seen Alita in 3D. 

 

I thought it was very similar in style to Ready Player One. Alita was likeable and fight scenes and action were great but the drama came off as cheesy/silly. 6/10. 

[Firepower]

It'll do more than x2 of its budget, some sequels were greenlight with worse results.

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

He doesn't have this kind of relationship with any other studio though. If we were talking Avatar 2, I am pretty sure any studio would take it up because they will earn a load of money but the sequel to a movie that might barely break even? That would be hard.

Lionsgate could do it, they would be very happy to participate in 500 mln grosser produced by James Cameron. Also Netflix, but that's not the best option considering it's very much big screen experience.

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, Firepower said:

It'll do more than x2 of its budget, some sequels were greenlight with worse results.

Lionsgate could do it, they would be very happy to participate in 500 mln grosser produced by James Cameron. Also Netflix, but that's not the best option considering it's very much big screen experience.

Story wise I felt it would’ve suited being a Netflix series tbh.

[The Futurist]

#Team Canada