Barnack Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: $14.5-14.75mn Tuesday for Captain Marvel. Will update & give the rest in two hours or so. This is big, 14.75m would be a bit better jump than Beauty and starting to gain good amount already on BvS. Biggest Tuesday in March Beauty: 17.878 BvS: 12.18m Hunger Games: 10.348 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 (edited) 58 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said: The increase seems pretty normal to me. First Tuesday bumps for every movie to open over 100M: Spoiler 29 that decreased IM3 +0.2 DP2 +3.3 CW +3.5 Twilight: New Moon +7.8 Suicide Squad +8.5 Goblet of Fire +11.8 I2 +14.5 Breaking Dawn Pt 2 +16.7 DH1 +16.8 Breaking Dawn Pt 1 +11.7 Dory +18.5 WW +22 gotg2 +22.7 SMH +22.4 JWFK +24.9 Jungle Book +27.6 SLoP +29.4 Catching Fire +29.5 Minions +30.1 It +30.5 Ragnarok +31.2 BatB +32.1 Mpckingjay pt 2 +33 (Thanksgiving) Mockingjay pt 1 +35.1 (Thanksgiving week) Now, there are several things going on here. Discount Tuesdays have increased as a factor recently, as you can clearly see from the release years. Really gargantuan openings lead to spillover Mondays. Some of those openings had holiday or partial holiday Mondays. But still, +36.5% on first Tuesday for an OW of this size would definitely not be normal. Edit: 14.5 is only a 32% increase, that would be on the good end of normal. Edited March 13, 2019 by Thanos Legion 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeZ Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 Very solid increase. Of course if it falls a tad harder then usual on Wednesday I hope people don't start saying it has horrible WOM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Wang Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 13 minutes ago, BoxOfficeZ said: Very solid increase. Of course if it falls a tad harder then usual on Wednesday I hope people don't start saying it has horrible WOM. I don't know where you get the idea that anyone here would do such a thing. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 I hereby swear to only complain about Wednesday if it’s <8.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJsooner Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 Charlie just throws a bunch of numbers at the wall and hopes it sticks. Imo 2 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 Just now, KJsooner said: Charlie just throws a bunch of numbers at the wall and hopes it sticks. Imo Seems like a pretty clear sign you don’t pay attention to how well his late-in-day estimates correspond to actuals. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iHeartJames Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, KJsooner said: Charlie just throws a bunch of numbers at the wall and hopes it sticks. Imo You're just jealous Charlie has a big cock and inside knowledge. 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJsooner Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said: Seems like a pretty clear sign you don’t pay attention to how well his late-in-day estimates correspond to actuals. I trust Rth, SS, or the other dude who always got trolled by baumer than Charlie. They’re more credible. Thanks for playing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: Seems like a pretty clear sign you don’t pay attention to how well his late-in-day estimates correspond to actuals. Nah, he has access to the same numbers as Rth. He's not quite as good as Rth in extrapolating the data. His late numbers however are pretty close to actuals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, druv10 said: Nah, he has access to the same numbers as Rth. He's not quite as good as Rth in extrapolating the data. Rth and Charlie. We’re a little team. Me as the teacher who can still do it, and you as the student who can do it… just not as good. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 (edited) 38 minutes ago, druv10 said: Nah, he has access to the same numbers as Rth. He's not quite as good as Rth in extrapolating the data. His late numbers however are pretty close to actuals. Well, yeah, Rth has been projecting DOM daily figures for over a dozen years iirc, and I think Charlie was focused more on India and China until fairly recently. If I got a number with the same amount of digits at the same time I’d certainly weight heavily toward the OG. But @KJsooner said he 51 minutes ago, KJsooner said: throws a bunch of numbers at the wall and that’s just obviously wrong. Edited March 13, 2019 by Thanos Legion 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 (edited) Not that I need to, what JFYI, the numbers I give. The very early estimates at around 8AM PST in morning, which I started from CM Friday are basically an estimate from pre-sales and East cost first show. Thankfully they all turn out to be accurate during the weekend, the Monday was bit off. I don't ask you to take it that seriously, as it's just a direction to what it could be, even I take them with pinch of salt as things could change during the day considerably. The story so far Friday: $39-42mn, actual $41mn Saturday: $52-54mn, actual $52.9mn Sunday: $39-40mn, actual $38.9mn Monday: $9-9.25mn, actual $11mn Tuesday: $15.25mn (it was projecting this but I didn't share them as I want to test them myself now before Endgame) If you don't want, I can stop them. The second update, I mostly share is when I wake up, this is supposed to be very close to actuals and so far that has been the case as well barring the case with Alita's 2nd Friday and Saturday. The final update is once everything is clear during my lunch break and that are the actuals. Of-course I can't possibly predict how the unreported locations will go and that could be different of +/-2%, no big deal. Edited March 13, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 16 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Not that I need to, what JFYI, the numbers I give. The very early estimates, which I started from CM Friday are basically an estimate from pre-sales and East cost first show. Thankfully they all turn out to be accurate during the weekend, the Monday was bit off. I don't ask you to take it that seriously, as it's just a direction to what it could be, even I take them with pinch of salt as things could change during the day considerably. The story so far Friday: $39-42mn, actual $41mn Saturday: $52-54mn, actual $52.9mn Sunday: $39-40mn, actual $38.9mn Monday: $9-9.25mn, actual $11mn If you don't want, I can stop them. The second update, I mostly share is when I wake up, this is supposed to be very close to actuals and so far that has been the case as well barring the case with Alita's 2nd Friday and Saturday. The final update is once everything is clear during my lunch break and that are the actuals. Of-course I can't possibly predict how the unreported locations will go and that could be different of +/-2%, no big deal. Don't mind certain folks, Charlie. @EmpireCity had to deal with this kind of stuff too. I'm sure the majority of us welcome and appreciate your updates. It's a bonus that you're really active here too, whereas Rth is a pop-in/pop-out guy (which is fine). 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cax16 Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Not that I need to, what JFYI, the numbers I give. The very early estimates at around 8AM PST in morning, which I started from CM Friday are basically an estimate from pre-sales and East cost first show. Thankfully they all turn out to be accurate during the weekend, the Monday was bit off. I don't ask you to take it that seriously, as it's just a direction to what it could be, even I take them with pinch of salt as things could change during the day considerably. The story so far Friday: $39-42mn, actual $41mn Saturday: $52-54mn, actual $52.9mn Sunday: $39-40mn, actual $38.9mn Monday: $9-9.25mn, actual $11mn Tuesday: $15.25mn (it was projecting this but I didn't share them as I want to test them myself now before Endgame) If you don't want, I can stop them. The second update, I mostly share is when I wake up, this is supposed to be very close to actuals and so far that has been the case as well barring the case with Alita's 2nd Friday and Saturday. The final update is once everything is clear during my lunch break and that are the actuals. Of-course I can't possibly predict how the unreported locations will go and that could be different of +/-2%, no big deal. Everyone appreciates your numbers and the info you get for the boards. It’s best to just ignore certain users. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 I was just looking at some possible 2nd wknd rankings and discovered some pretty weird trivia. There are 7 2nd weekend between 61M-66M, 9 between 71M-76M, and 0 between 66-71M. As long as the Wednesday is not super steep I think CM can add to that 71-76 bucket. As as long as it’s 65.3+ it won’t lose position relative to the OW rankings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Not that I need to, what JFYI, the numbers I give. The very early estimates at around 8AM PST in morning, which I started from CM Friday are basically an estimate from pre-sales and East cost first show. Thankfully they all turn out to be accurate during the weekend, the Monday was bit off. I don't ask you to take it that seriously, as it's just a direction to what it could be, even I take them with pinch of salt as things could change during the day considerably. The story so far Friday: $39-42mn, actual $41mn Saturday: $52-54mn, actual $52.9mn Sunday: $39-40mn, actual $38.9mn Monday: $9-9.25mn, actual $11mn Tuesday: $15.25mn (it was projecting this but I didn't share them as I want to test them myself now before Endgame) If you don't want, I can stop them. The second update, I mostly share is when I wake up, this is supposed to be very close to actuals and so far that has been the case as well barring the case with Alita's 2nd Friday and Saturday. The final update is once everything is clear during my lunch break and that are the actuals. Of-course I can't possibly predict how the unreported locations will go and that could be different of +/-2%, no big deal. Gonna chime in that I LOVE YOUR NUMBERS! And the starting presales you gave for CM each day also rocked! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 31 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Not that I need to, what JFYI, the numbers I give. The very early estimates at around 8AM PST in morning, which I started from CM Friday are basically an estimate from pre-sales and East cost first show. Thankfully they all turn out to be accurate during the weekend, the Monday was bit off. I don't ask you to take it that seriously, as it's just a direction to what it could be, even I take them with pinch of salt as things could change during the day considerably. The story so far Friday: $39-42mn, actual $41mn Saturday: $52-54mn, actual $52.9mn Sunday: $39-40mn, actual $38.9mn Monday: $9-9.25mn, actual $11mn Tuesday: $15.25mn (it was projecting this but I didn't share them as I want to test them myself now before Endgame) If you don't want, I can stop them. The second update, I mostly share is when I wake up, this is supposed to be very close to actuals and so far that has been the case as well barring the case with Alita's 2nd Friday and Saturday. The final update is once everything is clear during my lunch break and that are the actuals. Of-course I can't possibly predict how the unreported locations will go and that could be different of +/-2%, no big deal. You are great with or without numbers, but doubly so because they are accurate, early and exciting. Thanks! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tawasal Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 48 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Not that I need to, what JFYI, the numbers I give. The very early estimates at around 8AM PST in morning, which I started from CM Friday are basically an estimate from pre-sales and East cost first show. Thankfully they all turn out to be accurate during the weekend, the Monday was bit off. I don't ask you to take it that seriously, as it's just a direction to what it could be, even I take them with pinch of salt as things could change during the day considerably. The story so far Friday: $39-42mn, actual $41mn Saturday: $52-54mn, actual $52.9mn Sunday: $39-40mn, actual $38.9mn Monday: $9-9.25mn, actual $11mn Tuesday: $15.25mn (it was projecting this but I didn't share them as I want to test them myself now before Endgame) If you don't want, I can stop them. The second update, I mostly share is when I wake up, this is supposed to be very close to actuals and so far that has been the case as well barring the case with Alita's 2nd Friday and Saturday. The final update is once everything is clear during my lunch break and that are the actuals. Of-course I can't possibly predict how the unreported locations will go and that could be different of +/-2%, no big deal. Jealous bitches are gonna be jealous bitches. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tawasal Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 @Charlie Jatinder is the 15,25m your latest update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...