Legion Again Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, ElsaRoc said: I think it'll be close. The two MCU films closest to WW were IM3 and CACW. Both had bigger openings and second weekends than CM (though the gap narrowed). IM3 fell 58% and 51% 2nd and 3rd weekend. CACW fell 60% and 55%. While CM is likely to have stronger holds for weekend 3 than either of those, it's probably going to be close in terms of actual dollars, and it's 20-30m behind them. They also had a holiday in weekend 4, which CM won't have. Non-summer weekdays are pretty similar, though. After 25 days, (through Memorial Day) they were sitting at 377.5 (CACW) and 372.8 (IM3). CACW earned another 30.5m, IM3 another 36m. The better holds with CM will help late legs, but it'll need to close that gap as well, especially because it'll need another 4m or so to match WW. If it gets to upper 360s, it's probably got a shot, because Endgame gives it a boost. 410-415m? Sure. (If it gets within spitting distance, (1-2m) will Disney care enough to push it over? is probably the key question.) The next closest is GotG2. OW +5%, 10-day +6.6%, needs +5.8% total to beat WW. Matching Memorial Day+summer could be tough, so CM needs to try to build up a bigger lead in next 11 days. 5.3M would be +13% FWIW (not a lot). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 number is good now please stay on 5M side, enough with .99! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDarkKnightOfSteel Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Ahhhhhh this just reminds me what kind of mindblowing run Wonder Woman had.Good times. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zakiyyah6 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 I see US effecting Captain Marvel this weekend so I'm not going any higher than 36mil this upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyK Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Don't forget, we have the March Equinox, Holi and Purim which will all knock down the box office this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 3 hours ago, Thanos Legion said: The next closest is GotG2. OW +5%, 10-day +6.6%, needs +5.8% total to beat WW. Matching Memorial Day+summer could be tough, so CM needs to try to build up a bigger lead in next 11 days. 5.3M would be +13% FWIW (not a lot). CM still has some Spring Break and will have Easter holidays late in it's run and probably the double feature boost with AEG - so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 3 hours ago, ElsaRoc said: If it gets within spitting distance, (1-2m) will Disney care enough to push it over? Mostly I think espcially them - not so much or not always Sometimes way later added numbers push the titles over mile-stone numbers (like double-features, fan events, 10years whatever,..), so for the moment they have not a lot, but still there are a very few examples remaining An example where they might have done it, is Frozen, it ended its run after 161 days in release (long!) with $400,227,936 / 161 But is also a good example for the later reported little extra numbers, as it stands at $400,738,009 in dom 57 Pearl Harbor BV $198,542,554 3,255 $59,078,912 3,214 5/25/01 115 Gnomeo and Juliet BV $99,967,670 3,037 $25,356,909 2,994 2/11/11 116 Disney's Christopher Robin BV $99,215,042 3,602 $24,585,139 3,602 8/3/18 117 Hercules BV $99,112,101 2,930 $249,567 1 6/15/97 118 Meet the Robinsons BV $97,822,171 3,435 $25,123,781 3,413 3/30/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 3 hours ago, ElsaRoc said: I think it'll be close. The two MCU films closest to WW were IM3 and CACW. Both had bigger openings and second weekends than CM (though the gap narrowed). IM3 fell 58% and 51% 2nd and 3rd weekend. CACW fell 60% and 55%. While CM is likely to have stronger holds for weekend 3 than either of those, it's probably going to be close in terms of actual dollars, and it's 20-30m behind them. They also had a holiday in weekend 4, which CM won't have. Non-summer weekdays are pretty similar, though. After 25 days, (through Memorial Day) they were sitting at 377.5 (CACW) and 372.8 (IM3). CACW earned another 30.5m, IM3 another 36m. The better holds with CM will help late legs, but it'll need to close that gap as well, especially because it'll need another 4m or so to match WW. If it gets to upper 360s, it's probably got a shot, because Endgame gives it a boost. 410-415m? Sure. (If it gets within spitting distance, (1-2m) will Disney care enough to push it over? is probably the key question.) It's going to be soooo close. The gap will begin to reduce today 5.3M for CM vs 4.7M for CW and 4.6M for IM3 3rd weekend for CW was 33M and 35.8M for IM3. I am expecting something like 38-39M for Captain Marvel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 (edited) 26 minutes ago, AndyK said: Don't forget, we have the March Equinox, Holi and Purim which will all knock down the box office this week. I know you're joking, but if we are gonna have a big second effect (outside of Us, which will be the single largest effect on CM, between taking viewers, PLFs, and screens in general), it will be both the ending of almost all spring breaks til mid-April (after Sunday, so Sunday night will be lower) and March Madness kickoff (whose interest probably overlaps largely with CM's audience)... So, with that said, I think a2k, as he said, is way optimistic on the weekend:)...but, we'll see... Edited March 19, 2019 by TwoMisfits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyK Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 4 hours ago, ElsaRoc said: I think it'll be close. The two MCU films closest to WW were IM3 and CACW. Both had bigger openings and second weekends than CM (though the gap narrowed). IM3 fell 58% and 51% 2nd and 3rd weekend. CACW fell 60% and 55%. While CM is likely to have stronger holds for weekend 3 than either of those, it's probably going to be close in terms of actual dollars, and it's 20-30m behind them. They also had a holiday in weekend 4, which CM won't have. Non-summer weekdays are pretty similar, though. After 25 days, (through Memorial Day) they were sitting at 377.5 (CACW) and 372.8 (IM3). CACW earned another 30.5m, IM3 another 36m. The better holds with CM will help late legs, but it'll need to close that gap as well, especially because it'll need another 4m or so to match WW. If it gets to upper 360s, it's probably got a shot, because Endgame gives it a boost. 410-415m? Sure. (If it gets within spitting distance, (1-2m) will Disney care enough to push it over? is probably the key question.) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulder Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Wonder Woman had summer weekdays, I don't think it's a fair comparison. @CM vs WW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyK Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, Mulder said: Wonder Woman had summer weekdays, I don't think it's a fair comparison. @CM vs WW But CM is posting strong weekdays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulder Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, AndyK said: But CM is posting strong weekdays. CM's had good weekdays but just in general, summer weekdays will inflate legs just like December releases tend to have better then usual legs. I don't think comparing a March release's legs to a June release's legs checks out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 8 hours ago, Manny G said: Despite opening $50M higher I don’t think CM will match WW domestic haul. Personally if it misses by a bit on DOM yet shatters it by 300 million worldwide I'm not sure it matters. I liked Wonder Woman more, they failed on promoting that movie globally. It absolutely should have done 1+ billion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ms Lady Hawk Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Mulder said: CM's had good weekdays but just in general, summer weekdays will inflate legs just like December releases tend to have better then usual legs. I don't think comparing a March release's legs to a June release's legs checks out. Let’s see how it plays out. It probably is going to be a photo finish between the two. I do recall several (maybe not majority) of folks saying that CM was going to crush WW domestically. There were even a few who thought it would make in excess of 500 million. Many thought it would make ~450. So I don’t think they were considering March v Summer. At this point, I think CM is looking at 400-420. But again, we will see. Fun times! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 6 hours ago, ElsaRoc said: I think it'll be close. The two MCU films closest to WW were IM3 and CACW. Both had bigger openings and second weekends than CM (though the gap narrowed). IM3 fell 58% and 51% 2nd and 3rd weekend. CACW fell 60% and 55%. While CM is likely to have stronger holds for weekend 3 than either of those, it's probably going to be close in terms of actual dollars, and it's 20-30m behind them. They also had a holiday in weekend 4, which CM won't have. Non-summer weekdays are pretty similar, though. After 25 days, (through Memorial Day) they were sitting at 377.5 (CACW) and 372.8 (IM3). CACW earned another 30.5m, IM3 another 36m. The better holds with CM will help late legs, but it'll need to close that gap as well, especially because it'll need another 4m or so to match WW. If it gets to upper 360s, it's probably got a shot, because Endgame gives it a boost. 410-415m? Sure. (If it gets within spitting distance, (1-2m) will Disney care enough to push it over? is probably the key question.) Probably yeah they will. Easy to fudge it with combined showing of Captain Marvel and End Game. I think the very late legs of Captain Marvel are going to be very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said: Let’s see how it plays out. It probably is going to be a photo finish between the two. I do recall several (maybe not majority) of folks saying that CM was going to crush WW domestically. There were even a few who thought it would make in excess of 500 million. Many thought it would make ~450. So I don’t think they were considering March v Summer. At this point, I think CM is looking at 400-420. But again, we will see. Fun times! There were plenty of people who also said it wouldn't make 300 DOM and it would do under 750 ww, which it accomplished in 10 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 3 hours ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said: Ahhhhhh this just reminds me what kind of mindblowing run Wonder Woman had.Good times. Uh oh, Thyrlos is back and put a laughing face at this tweet. (As if anyone can say WW’s run wasn’t amazing, lol.) 39 minutes ago, Mulder said: Wonder Woman had summer weekdays, I don't think it's a fair comparison. @CM vs WW Yeh but CM opened $50m+ more and didn’t have any competition so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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