AVENGERS: ENDGAME WEEKEND THREAD l Actuals: $357.115M | $866.526M OS, $1.223B WW l Russos true box office kings l *** NO SPOILERS - Even Tagged ***| SALE NOW LIVE: 50% Off Gold Montly, 25% Off Gold Annually

[FlashMaster659]

4 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Internal multiplier cases following the remaining MCU:

 

COMPARABLE	PREVIEWS	TRUE FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	OPENING WEEKEND
Black Panther	60	96.7	125.9 (+30.16%)	114.6 (-9%)	398.1
Thor: Ragnarok	60	96.7	133.6 (+38.14%)	97 (-27.4%)	387.3
Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2	60	96.7	126.9 (+31.21%)	96.8 (-23.7%)	380.4
Doctor Strange	60	96.7	130.7 (+35.21%)	88 (-32.7%)	375.4
Avengers: Infinity War	60	96.7	118 (+22.04%)	99.5 (-15.7%)	374.2
Captain Marvel	60	96.7	124.7 (+28.96%)	91.7 (-26.5%)	373.1
Captain America: The Winter Soldier	60	96.7	125.5 (+29.83%)	84.8 (-32.4%)	370
Thor: The Dark World	60	96.7	125.1 (+29.35%)	84.8 (-32.2%)	366.6
Ant-Man	60	96.7	116.2 (+20.15%)	90.2 (-22.4%)	363.1
Guardians Of The Galaxy	60	96.7	112.7 (+16.5%)	92.6 (-17.8%)	362
Captain America: Civil War	60	96.7	117.2 (+21.21%)	81.2 (-30.7%)	355.1
The Avengers	60	96.7	108.3 (+12.01%)	88.8 (-18%)	353.8
Iron Man 3	60	96.7	113 (+16.84%)	78.1 (-30.9%)	347.8
Ant-Man And The Wasp	60	96.7	102.6 (+6.1%)	80.7 (-21.3%)	340
Spider-Man: Homecoming	60	96.7	101.1 (+4.6%)	79.7 (-21.2%)	337.5
Captain America: The First Avenger	60	96.7	97.8 (+1.12%)	77.7 (-20.6%)	332.2
Thor	60	96.7	101.7 (+5.14%)	73.6 (-27.6%)	332
Avengers: Age Of Ultron	60	96.7	92.1 (-0.5%)	82 (-11%)	330.8
Iron Man	60	96.7	102.5 (+6%)	71.4 (-30.3%)	330.6
Iron Man 2	60	96.7	101.3 (+4.75%)	68.9 (-32%)	326.9
The Incredible Hulk	60	96.7	82.8 (-14.4%)	70.1 (-15.3%)	309.6

 

I know that a lot of these comparables have extremes to them, due to the varied times of the year they came out and all..... but this is Endgame, so we're throwing out logic out the window and applying every comparable here. Soooooo basically it needs to perform better than Black Panther, a President's Day 4-day frame opener, to get to 400, so it's time to get off that horse  However, should it follow just about half of the MCU (including even a lot of the bigger openers, including Infinity War), it's likelier than not to beat the previous OW record by 100M. Insane.

GOTG comp is my guess

[ThiagoMaia]

9 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Internal multiplier cases following the remaining MCU:

 

COMPARABLE	PREVIEWS	TRUE FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	OPENING WEEKEND
Black Panther	60	96.7	125.9 (+30.16%)	114.6 (-9%)	398.1
Thor: Ragnarok	60	96.7	133.6 (+38.14%)	97 (-27.4%)	387.3
Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2	60	96.7	126.9 (+31.21%)	96.8 (-23.7%)	380.4
Doctor Strange	60	96.7	130.7 (+35.21%)	88 (-32.7%)	375.4
Avengers: Infinity War	60	96.7	118 (+22.04%)	99.5 (-15.7%)	374.2
Captain Marvel	60	96.7	124.7 (+28.96%)	91.7 (-26.5%)	373.1
Captain America: The Winter Soldier	60	96.7	125.5 (+29.83%)	84.8 (-32.4%)	370
Thor: The Dark World	60	96.7	125.1 (+29.35%)	84.8 (-32.2%)	366.6
Ant-Man	60	96.7	116.2 (+20.15%)	90.2 (-22.4%)	363.1
Guardians Of The Galaxy	60	96.7	112.7 (+16.5%)	92.6 (-17.8%)	362
Captain America: Civil War	60	96.7	117.2 (+21.21%)	81.2 (-30.7%)	355.1
The Avengers	60	96.7	108.3 (+12.01%)	88.8 (-18%)	353.8
Iron Man 3	60	96.7	113 (+16.84%)	78.1 (-30.9%)	347.8
Ant-Man And The Wasp	60	96.7	102.6 (+6.1%)	80.7 (-21.3%)	340
Spider-Man: Homecoming	60	96.7	101.1 (+4.6%)	79.7 (-21.2%)	337.5
Captain America: The First Avenger	60	96.7	97.8 (+1.12%)	77.7 (-20.6%)	332.2
Thor	60	96.7	101.7 (+5.14%)	73.6 (-27.6%)	332
Avengers: Age Of Ultron	60	96.7	92.1 (-0.5%)	82 (-11%)	330.8
Iron Man	60	96.7	102.5 (+6%)	71.4 (-30.3%)	330.6
Iron Man 2	60	96.7	101.3 (+4.75%)	68.9 (-32%)	326.9
The Incredible Hulk	60	96.7	82.8 (-14.4%)	70.1 (-15.3%)	309.6

 

I know that a lot of these comparables have extremes to them, due to the varied times of the year they came out and all..... but this is Endgame, so we're throwing out logic out the window and applying every comparable here. Soooooo basically it needs to perform better than Black Panther, a President's Day 4-day frame opener, to get to 400, so it's time to get off that horse  However, should it follow just about half of the MCU (including even a lot of the bigger openers, including Infinity War), it's likelier than not to beat the previous OW record by 100M. Insane.

Nice work. What other movie is closest to it in Previews/Friday Ratio?

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Cappoedameron said:

No offense but this is unrealistic, a -30% hold against Pikachu? If movies like Battleship, Life of the Party, and Breaking In were able to put Avengers and Infinity War at only -45% holds what the heck makes you think Pokemon is gonna only do -30% for Endgame when it's a freaking monster in and of itself? Do you not understand how big the Pokemon brand is?

Totally...but Endgame is gonna sell out everything it gets weekend #2...but it's not gonna have nearly the sets of this weekend...

 

Weekend #3, it's gonna again sellout everything it gets on Sat/Sun...and its sets are unlikely to change as much...

 

For example, my 12's will back off to 3-4 screens next weekend for Endgame and will not do showings before 10am or after 11pm (vs this weekend)...for Mother's Day weekend, I'm almost certain they'll stick to the same screens and sets as weekend #2...so what Pika will be doing is hitting everything else, but not the Endgame sets, in its opener...I expect Pika to get 2-3 screens, max, at my 12s...which is still good, and makes $100M possible, but it's not going to make much more possible (nor does tracking suggest it needs to)...

 

Look, my kids are huge Pika fans...and I'll be going to that movie:)...but I'm realistic...my May 7th showing for Endgame is already almost sold out...that's still 9 days away...Endgame is going to be supply limited after this weekend, and we'll keep seeing that for the next few weekends...

 

And to be honest, it's Mother Day weekend with no great "Mother's Day" opener. so what better one than Endgame:)...not sure moms are gonna be driven by Pokemon:)...

[Mulder]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

Totally...but Endgame is gonna sell out everything it gets weekend #2...but it's not gonna have nearly the sets of this weekend...

 

Weekend #3, it's gonna again sellout everything it gets on Sat/Sun...and its sets are unlikely to change as much...

 

For example, my 12's will back off to 3-4 screens next weekend for Endgame and will not do showings before 10am or after 11pm (vs this weekend)...for Mother's Day weekend, I'm almost certain they'll stick to the same screens and sets as weekend #2...so what Pika will be doing is hitting everything else, but not the Endgame sets, in its opener...I expect Pika to get 2-3 screens, max, at my 12s...which is still good, and makes $100M possible, but it's not going to make much more possible (nor does tracking suggest it needs to)...

 

Look, my kids are huge Pika fans...and I'll be going to that movie:)...but I'm realistic...my May 7th showing for Endgame is already almost sold out...that's still 9 days away...Endgame is going to be supply limited after this weekend, and we'll keep seeing that for the next few weekends...

 

And to be honest, it's Mother Day weekend with no great "Mother's Day" opener. so what better one than Endgame:)...not sure moms are gonna be driven by Pokemon:)...

You're actually bringing up a great point. I feel like Endgame will definitely have more moms wanting to see it then Detective Pikachu.

[hasanahmad]

Posting in a historical thread. No movie will come close to this in the next 20-25

years. it will have to be a 22 movie successful run event finale. That’s not going to happen anytime

maybe in next 2-3 decades . I don’t see a RDJ or CE like charismatic actor attracting the fans anytime soon. Lighting never strikes twice in the same generation . Younger folks tell this to your kids, older folks tell this to your grandkids you were witness on the first weekend where history was made

Edited April 27, 2019 by hasanahmad

[GOATPeterJackson]

Is 370+ really in play?

[Mulder]

Just now, hasanahmad said:

Posting in a historical thread. No movie will come close to this in the next 20-25

years. it will to be a 22 movie successful run event finale. That’s not going to happen. I don’t see a RDJ or CE like charismatic actor attracting the fans anytime soon. Lighting never strikes twice in the same generation 

It's even got a long runtime and a high RT score. 

[MCKillswitch123]

6 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

GOTG comp is my guess

Realistically, I would give the Avengers 1 one the edge, simply because GOT may affect it just a little more than we expect. GOTG Vol. 1 is a close second.

 

Although, if Charlie's 125 guess turns out for real, the Guardians Vol. 2 comp becomes my viewpoint.

[Eric Duncan]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

You're actually bringing up a great point. I feel like Endgame will definitely have more moms wanting to see it then Detective Pikachu.

 

 

 

You may be on to something here (unless there's a large subset of furry moms out there)

[Mulder]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

Realistically, I would give the Avengers 1 one the edge, simply because GOT may affect it just a little more than we expect. GOTG Vol. 1 is a close second.

 

Although, if Charlie's 125 guess turns out for real, the Guardians Vol. 2 comp becomes my viewpoint.

I don't think GoT will affect this too much. Sunday nights are already the quietest times for OWs and GoT is the kind of show you can just record, it's not like a sports game. 

[MCKillswitch123]

4 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

Nice work. What other movie is closest to it in Previews/Friday Ratio?

@MikeQ put up a list of this some pages ago. Search his post history for it and you'll find them. But out of those MCU films, Infinity War is easily the closest one.

[Cappoedameron]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

And to be honest, it's Mother Day weekend with no great "Mother's Day" opener. so what better one than Endgame:)...not sure moms are gonna be driven by Pokemon:)...

I can't think of a better movie for mom to take her little ones to for bonding and a fun time then Detective Pikachu.

 

All I'm saying is if those three movies which were not competition for those Avengers movies and it did a -45% hold then a movie that is actual competition for Endgame isn't only gonna give it a -30% hold. It's highly unlikely. 

 

Personally I see Pikachu giving Endgame another 50-55% drop off. Which is why many believe there's gonna be a true battle between Pikachu and Endgame for 3rd Weekend. 

Edited April 27, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

 

 

You may be on to something here (unless there's a large subset of furry moms out there)

Out of reactions but 

[terrestrial]

Record-breaking 'Avengers: Endgame' storms to $725m worldwide

nice summary of details partly spread out all over BOT

Quote

Avengers: Endgame remains on course for an unprecedented $1bn five-day global debut after racing to $644m worldwide through Friday that set international and global opening weekend records and the highest opening day in North America, climbing to $726.4m including a record-breaking Saturday in China.

Internationally, the climactic 22nd instalment in the first phase of Marvel Studios tentpoles grossed $487m by the end of Friday to overtake the former record international opening weekend of $443m set by The Fate Of The Furious.

The tentpole has reached $27m after two days in the UK, and followed up the record $15.3m Thursday opening day with the second highest Friday of all time behind Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (holiday launch).

Globally, Endgame has reached $644m and with Saturday and Sunday to go has established a new record, outpacing the $641m debut set last year by Avengers: Infinity War.

China has generated a record $217m in the first three days – Infinity War opened there on $210m – and the tally rises to $300m (RMB 2.02bn) including Saturday’s record industry single day of $82.4m (RMB 553m). Endgame took a record-breaking four days to cross the RMB 2bn mark.

In North America, Endgame opened on a record $156.7m first day (including Thursday previews), and Disney executives are estimating a three-day haul in the $310m-$340m range pending Saturday and Sunday grosses that would smash the existing $257.7m opening weekend record established by Infinity War in the final weekend of April 2018.

By territory, Marvel Studios’ latest blockbuster has opened everywhere except Russia (April 29) and has recorded all-time industry single day in China (including Tuesday night previews), the UK, Australia, South Korea (admissions), Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, Colombia, New Zealand, The Philippines, Vietnam, Egypt, Panama, Peru, Chile, Bolivia, Paraguay, Trinidad, Ecuador, Uruguay, South Africa and UAE.

It has also registered the highest industry opening day in Indonesia, Malaysia, Netherlands, Greece, Portugal, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Czech Rep, Serbia (non-local), Slovakia, Turkey, Ukraine, East Africa and West Africa.

By territory the film has reached $300m in China, $27m in the UK, $23m in South Korea, $19.7m in Australia, $15.2m in Germany, $13.5m in France, $13.4m in Italy, $12.5m in both Brazil and Mexico, $10m in the Philippines, $9m in India, $7,7m in Indonesia, and $7.1m in Hong Kong.

https://www.screendaily.com/box-office/record-breaking-avengers-endgame-storms-to-725m-worldwide/5138838.article

 

I know I 'lost' at least 20 pages during trying to catch up = I hope it wasn't already posted

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

btw @Sam think it's time to use the folder

[Cappoedameron]

So is the number 370 or is it 340?

[JB33]

3 minutes ago, GOATPeterJackson said:

Is 370+ really in play?

Yes, absolutely.

 

Friday: $156.7M

Saturday: $117.974M (+22% from True Friday, same as IW)

Sunday: $99.098M (-16%)

Total: $373.772M

 

[JimiQ]

2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Record-breaking 'Avengers: Endgame' storms to $725m worldwide

 

Two more billies...

[terrestrial]

5 hours ago, justvision said:

The fact that you can repeatedly AIW at least 5 and half times tell me that AIW does not seem that bad to you as you implied.

 

There can be other reasons for that counts than only this one 😉

 

5 hours ago, cory said:

Infinity War being available on Netflix for months before Endgame's release has to be a factor, the saturation we're seeing feels impossible. ...

As far as I remember not in all regions / countries with Netflix. E.g. onl a few MCU movies are still on Netflix Germany.

 

5 hours ago, That One Guy said:

I had no idea that a Marvel movie was capable of eliciting that strong emotions out of me.  Christ I’m a wreck.  Might be my favorite Marvel movie, need to let it sit for a bit

 

Without describing details (no spoiler trapping you): you told you got spoiled shortly before your screening. Was it still other than assumed or...?

 

 

4 hours ago, Stewart said:

I was gonna say, that's like 500 likes! That'd be insane! 

 

I think its a rolling count, 24h. Means if you gave the first hour a 100 likes (bcs its so fun to really give them without limits) and then more normal, you might reach it - on - off .... like the 24h are giving like counts per 24h back.

Glitch is always a possibility, but for me, as it happened the first time out of likes, it was as described 😉

 

4 hours ago, mattie08 said:

I think there’s a glitch...it’s like every other one I try works, and the other half I get the “Sorry, you cannot add any more reactions today message.” Don’t know what’s going on.

see above

 

Edited April 27, 2019 by terrestrial

[JB33]

What's the record number of pages for a weekend thread again?