FAST & FURIOUS PRESENTS: HOBBS & SHAW | 585.1 M overseas ● 759.1 M worldwide

[kayumanggi]

I've seen 900 M predictions for this. Crazy numbers. I'm thinking around 600 M for now.

Edited March 12, 2020 by kayumanggi

[KP1025]

Being a spin-off, it should see a sizable drop in most markets. Even in China, the interest so far doesn't seem big. I think $600 million OS is a good target unless China delivers again. 

[MattW]

https://deadline.com/2019/07/hobbs-shaw-box-office-global-preview-1202657322/

South East Asian markets are a go tomorrow for the David Leitch-directed feature, with major territories like UK, Brazil, Germany, Japan and Russia debuting through Friday along with the rest of the world save China, France, Italy and Korea which come later. The industry is seeing an initial weekend in the $125M range with upside depending on who shows up. Latin American and Asian audiences need to turn out if Hobbs & Shaw is going to fly past these projections.

 

For argument’s sake, F8 opened internationally to $171.5M in like-for-like markets and at today’s rates...

 

The good box office comparison here is last year’s Mission: Impossible – Falloutwhich opened to $61.2M domestic, $156.2M worldwide,  the highest in that Paramount Tom Cruise series. The Mission: Impossible franchise is a better fit based on the recurring characters, late summer date and zany stunt action which Hobbs & Shaw definitely has. Fallout did $95M in like-for-likes...

 

If we look at superhero movies, perhaps Suicide Squad and Deadpool are worth notice, they opened to $122M and $132M in like for likes per our calculations.

[newbie BO buff]

Indonesia opens today with a massive screen number of 1,250+ (total screens now: 1,905).

FF8 was all time champ before Infinity War and Endgame.

[keysersoze123]

Asia and Latin America will be critical for this. I would say 700m OS target.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

$650M OS

[Jamiem]

Copy and pasted myself from the NZ thread.

 

Hobbs and Shaw opening day (Thu 1/08/2019) -12 hours before release

 

11:00am 17/288

12:00pm 28/364

12:00pm GC 2/40

2:00pm 14/288

3:00pm  27/364

3:00pm GC 5/40

3:50pm 14/216

5:00pm 16/288

6:00pm 65/364

6:00pm GC 22/40

7:00pm 31/216

8:00pm 33/288

8:30pm 7/144

8:45pm 9/216

9:00pm 57/364

9:00pm GC 14/40

 

Total 361/3560 (10.14%) 

 

Comps:

 

19.72% of TLK (sold 1831 tickets at same point) which would be a $1,007,692 opening weekend.

950% of Booksmart (sold 38 tickets at the same point) which would be a $511,575 opening weekend.

 

I think the TLK comp is more reasonable and somewhere around a $1m opening weekend seems right. The good news for Hobbs and Shaw is that there have been plenty more showings added, hopefully the movie is walkup heavy otherwise those extra showing will have been wasted. 

[nguyenkhoi282]

~700M seems right. This will have the benefit of summer weekdays, could see as high as 750M though. 

[Into the Legion-Verse]

 <500 

[RealLyre]

17 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

 <500 

low 500s OS and low 100s DOM are probably the worse case scenario. 

[danhtruong5]

Vietnam: F&F:H&S just broke record for Thursday night with 14B in lc (Endgame 13B), lets see if it can pass Endgame final number 285B.

https://m.facebook.com/cgvcinemavietnam/photos/a.414600945624/10157664303525625/?type=3&source=48

Top 10 All Time in lc (Italic is local movie)

1.Endgame                         285.4B

2.Cua Lại Vợ Bầu               191.8B

3.Infinity War                      188.5B

4. Furie (Hai Phượng)       185B

5.Em Chưa 18                    171B

6.Kong:Skull Island.          169B

7.Fast and Furious 8.        158B

8.Fast and Furious 7.        147B

9. Far From Home              111B (update till 29/07/2019) 

10.Siêu Sao Siêu Ngố.         108.7B

 

 

EDIT: I just updated Far From Home number

And it seems that the 14B for F&F:H&S was from the whole Thursday, not only Thursday night while Endgame 13B was only from Thursday night from 7.00PM. So it is pretty much that F&F can not catch 285B of Endgame, let alone hit 200B...

Edited August 2, 2019 by danhtruong5

[Justin4125]

36 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

Vietnam: F&F:H&S just broke record for Thursday night with 14B in lc (Endgame 13B), lets see if it can pass Endgame final number 285B.

 

Unlikely, EG had surprisingly good legs in Vietnam. FF8 had a higher OW than EG (in $) but EG finished significantly higher (almost 4x multiple compared to FF8's 2.1x). Why did EG have such crazy legs in Vietnam, was it boosted by a holiday?

 

While HS will almost definitely not pass EG in Vietnam, I am very encouraged by the film's opening there. Hopefully its indicative of a solid performance in the rest of Asia

[PKMLover]

1 hour ago, Justin4125 said:

Unlikely, EG had surprisingly good legs in Vietnam. FF8 had a higher OW than EG (in $) but EG finished significantly higher (almost 4x multiple compared to FF8's 2.1x). Why did EG have such crazy legs in Vietnam, was it boosted by a holiday?

 

While HS will almost definitely not pass EG in Vietnam, I am very encouraged by the film's opening there. Hopefully its indicative of a solid performance in the rest of Asia

Yes, Endgame was boosted by holiday. However,  unfortunately, during that week, there were two days (Friday and Saturday) all entertainment activities had to stop because they were national funeral days (the president died this year). 

So yeah..... Endgame had holiday boost but also lost 2 weekend days.... so I think they balanced out each other....

Edited August 1, 2019 by PKMLover

[Into the Legion-Verse]

22 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

 <500 

Well that not’s aging well 😛     

 

I’ll be happy if this can hit 150+650 or so, I do like Vanessa Kirby

[Minnale101]

Good start for hobbs and Shaw 

 

i think movie will do really well in India next 3 week no big local or Hollywood movie with Independence Day holiday next week 

 

WOM should be great 

[a2k]

some good news here. 650 os, 175 dom (825 ww) would be a 79-21 split compared to 82-18 of F8.

Edited August 1, 2019 by a2k

[nguyenkhoi282]

2 hours ago, danhtruong5 said:

Vietnam: F&F:H&S just broke record for Thursday night with 14B in lc (Endgame 13B), lets see if it can pass Endgame final number 285B.

https://m.facebook.com/cgvcinemavietnam/photos/a.414600945624/10157664303525625/?type=3&source=48

Vietnam love Superhero and F&F

Top 12 All Time in lc (Italic is local movie)

1.Endgame                         285.4B

2.Cua Lại Vợ Bầu               191.8B

3.Infinity War                      188.5B

4.Em Chưa 18                    171B

5.Kong:Skull Island.          169B

6.Hai Phượng.                    160B

7.Fast and Furious 8.        158B

8.Fast and Furious 7.        147B

9.Siêu Sao Siêu Ngố.         108.7B

10.Age of Ultron.                107.5B

11.Aquaman.                      106.6B

12.Black Panther.               103.5B

Sneakshows for H&S last for the whole fkin day. EG only starts after 7 p.m. Not apple to apple.

CGV only calls it "sneakshows" so they can apply full adult price for every showings instead of U22.

Also, FFH is missing from your chart, should be at 120B by now.

Furie (Hai Phuong) number is also weird. It was reported at 200B including US number (~15B), so 180-185B lc is more accurate. 

I can see H&S getting to 150B, but not much more than that.

Edited August 1, 2019 by nguyenkhoi282

[newbie BO buff]

Indonesia OD looks be around $1.54M, which sets the stage for an OW range of $7.6-8.1M.

Fourth highest of the year.

[keysersoze123]

So far numbers are great. Even russia OD is promising(almost 150m ruble). Definitely not grossing below 700m. Its pretty much the last major movie this summer. China should get onboard this movie for sure. Could even go higher than 700m(That is with 200m in China).

[pepsa]

Looking very good indeed, sure makes it more reasonable to expect very good walk ups in the US as well. And we are still in summer so legs could be very good.