Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[Menor the Destroyer]

I feel like some here are just really underrating the amount of buzz around TLK. Aladdin had negative buzz from the beginning, Lion King the exact opposite. The 3D rerelease did huge numbers. Trailer views are huge (both trailer 1 and 2). It scores super high on BOP trailer impact metrics of people who viewed it in theater. Huge amounts of people have seen the original when they were kids and still have nostalgia for it. Demographically, it has by far the widest appeal of the Disney remakes. There's just nothing pointing to it not being a hit at this stage.

[MovieMan89]

Anyways, things have backfired before when Disney tries to plan its biggest successes (I'm talking about the main studio). For example, TLK the animated movie was essentially developed as a cliff note to Pocahontas, intended as a nice little stepping stone on the way to the true box office juggernaut/Best Picture winner Pocahontas would be (yes, they really expected this). The irony of history repeating itself if remakes like TJB and BatB, which weren't expected by the studio to be anything compared to the live action TLK, ended up being bigger. 

[SchumacherFTW]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

I feel like some here are just really underrating the amount of buzz around TLK. Aladdin had negative buzz from the beginning, Lion King the exact opposite. The 3D rerelease did huge numbers. Trailer views are huge (both trailer 1 and 2). It scores super high on BOP trailer impact metrics of people who viewed it in theater. Huge amounts of people have seen the original when they were kids and still have nostalgia for it. Demographically, it has by far the widest appeal of the Disney remakes. There's just nothing pointing to it not being a hit at this stage.

Nobody is disputing that it's going to be a hit in the slightest. It's just the level to which it performs that's ip for debate. 

[Maxmoser3]

Aladdin’s debut is solid. Definitely avoided the curse Disney had had since 2015 with flop circle everywhere. So a total of $220 million domestic is the goal. 

 

John Wick 3’s drop is better than its predecessors. But it’s the first Keanu Reeves film since Matrix Revolutions to make $100 million. So a total around $160 million domestic will be solid. 

 

Avengers: Endgame holding up. So $845-$850 million domestic total.

 

Detective Pikachu holding up. $155 million domestic.

 

Brightburn’s debut outgrossed the unadjusted total of Slither. $20 million domestic is likely with horror competition everywhere this summer.

 

Booksmart debut ahead of Edge Of Seventeen. Good word of mouth, and alright holding power a total on-par with Edge is likely.

 

the rest is the same. I’m gonna finish watching the 500 race. 

[cdsacken]

220 domestic will be there in a couple weeks. 250+ up to 270/280

[Cooper Legion]

14 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

The bottom numbers were for TLK. 

There was absolutely 0 indication of that in their post. So, I mean, I guess this is the most reasonable assumption, but it’s nothing more than that and you can see why their post was confusing.

[ThomasNicole]

30 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

TLK trailer legs were horrible though, that initial teaser which hit all the big numbers, look at its viewcount on youtube right now, it's actually behind Detective Pikachu at only 64M, that original Infinity War trailer is at 227M now.  I think those 24 hours view for TLK teaser might be heavily inflated by some facebook/twitter number, YouTube main video has roughly the same view count as Pikachu in the first day and is follow similar trajectory (really bad legs) in views after the first day. 

The views for TLK "official trailer" main video on youtube is not impressive at all, sitting at only 32M after 1.5 month...

YouTube isn't big like it was before anymore and the views now aren't concentrated in only one channel [TLK for example have multiple reposts], also platforms like Twitter is getting bigger everyday. 

 

The second trailer you mentioned, it made only 10M on Disney Youtube on first day and still made 174M overall, it's obvious that the views aren't concentrated anymore. SW face the same problem, people here spend days talking about how bad the views are because TLJ is much bigger on YouTube, later we find out overall TROS surpass TLJ by 21M.

 

But i think i only need to make one comparisson to prove my point:

EG teaser made almost 300M views beating IW by a large margin... still EG teaser have just 96M on YouTube.

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Nobody is disputing that it's going to be a hit in the slightest. It's just the level to which it performs that's ip for debate. 

Right, it's like I get the feeling most of this forum would lose their minds if TLK did like 350/600 and declare it some huge flop when in reality it would be a huge hit. The expectations are crazy. 

[Taruseth]

23 minutes ago, Barnack said:

It ?

 

The 123m september R-rated openner ? Is an example of not giving too much weigth to an online phenomenom ?

 

Or 50 Shades the :

https://deadline.com/2015/02/fifty-shades-of-grey-international-box-office-first-day-1201372179/

Fifty Shades touts the biggest opening abroad ever for an adult film, beating the previous record holder The Matrix Revolutions at $117M.

 

1. (New) Fifty Shades of Grey, $237.7m from 59 territories – 65.7% international; 34.3% US

 

 

32 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

It had record opening for horror. Also there was anomoly as Facebook views were higher than normal.

 

Fifty Shades; 1) porn 2) it did opened huge.

 

Yeah. I am not saying it will be a 400m dom and 600m OS movie because despite thinking that it could happen, don't think it will gross that low and to be honest 1B isn't low at all.

 

 

And yeah those movies opened big but they opened big within their genre.

 

If TLK did that it would open around B&tB or more like over it by something, which is probably what will happen in the end but there still is a chance for it to just open big, nothing more.

 

And I definitely wouldn't plan with 2B or something like that, not saying that there is no chance for that to happen, but sometimes hype can make one overestimating a movie in the stratosphere, not saying that you are doing it as one of your claims was above B&tB which is, I'd say,' reasonable but still a far cry from 2B.

[MovieMan89]

The opening is where I think TLK is being overestimated the most. I would be shocked if it goes above 150. If it makes huge 500+ numbers, it's going to be through legs not OW. 

[filmlover]

Regardless of how high it opens, it's likely gonna have great legs into the fall since it's the last major event title of the summer (movies like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Hobbs & Shaw will do well but nowhere nearly that same level), and the last major family film until the end of September. It could open to similar numbers as Beauty and the Beast and still pull a multiplier over 3.

[ThomasNicole]

Toy Story 4 full trailer is about to reach 1 million likes on YouTube, is at 997k now and should cross the difficult milestone in 1-2 days.

 

I’m really confident if this didn’t pass TS3 will be really close (domestically speaking).

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Regardless of how high it opens, it's likely gonna have great legs into the fall since it's the last major event title of the summer (movies like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Hobbs & Shaw will do well but nowhere nearly that same level), and the last major family film until the end of September. It could open to similar numbers as Beauty and the Beast and still pull a multiplier over 3.

Angry Birds 2 and Dora are now crying slow silent tears:)...

[cdsacken]

Dear God the grande nitro brew. It's good but way too much caffeine

[MovieMan89]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

Toy Story 4 full trailer is about to reach 1 million likes on YouTube, is at 997k now and should cross the difficult milestone in 1-2 days.

 

I’m really confident if this didn’t pass TS3 will be really close (domestically speaking).

TS4's performance more than maybe anything else this summer relies extremely heavily on reception. If Pixar managed to do it again with this franchise, there will be a crapload of people who will want to see it. If reception is less than stellar, I think most will sit it out. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Angry Birds 2 and Dora are now crying slow silent tears:)…

Those are real movies?

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, filmlover said:

Those are real movies?

See, now that you badmouthed Dora and Angry Birds 2, watch them both hit $100M DOM:)...(I actually think 1 can do it...and it should be obvious which one:)...

[Jonwo]

Judging from the U.K. numbers of SLOP2, I think it’s heading for a big drop

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

TS4's performance more than maybe anything else this summer relies extremely heavily on reception. If Pixar managed to do it again with this franchise, there will be a crapload of people who will want to see it. If reception is less than stellar, I think most will sit it out. 

They showed 20 minutes on CinemaCon last month and if the reception are accurate (like it was for Aladdin), this is probably coming for another 90’s on RT.

 

Even those who didn’t go crazy about it say it seems like a perfect sequel for the previous movies.

[filmlover]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

See, now that you badmouthed Dora and Angry Birds 2, watch them both hit $100M DOM:)...(I actually think 1 can do it...and it should be obvious which one:)...

Dora's probably too limited in appeal to really breakout beyond anything in the $60M range but I guess Angry Birds 2 should do fine provided families don't reject it ala Lego Movie 2.