Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)

[xiazhi]

2 hours ago, Xftg123 said:

Don't forget Rotten Scores too.

 

Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom

Aladdin (2019)

The Lion King (2019)

Batman V Superman

Suicide Squad

 

They all have Rotten scores from Critics but all of them had good to great legs at the box office.

BvS has a 1.99 multiplexer

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

24 minutes ago, Xftg123 said:

Speaking of Best Picture noms, Disney's doing their Oscars Campaign and they want Avengers Endgame to be in the runs for Best Picture.

 

I mean, I personally think it shouldn't win BP,  but something like an Lifetime Achievement Award of sorts would be better for the film.

Lots of movies get campaigned for awards, sometimes it's contractual and to assuage egos but nobody really thinks the movie has a realistic chance at Best Picture:

 

 

Sometimes the movie might have a legit shot for the technical categories, but the studio figures, "Hey, we might as well throw in Best Picture/Director in ads while we're at it!" But there will also be ads specific to the category (VFX, Production Design, Sound Editing, etc).

 

With Endgame, I doubt Disney has huge expectations of a Best Picture nomination, but it got record breaking box office, it was a conclusion to a lenghty series in a way, Black Panther made it in last year, so why not try? It's not like they don't have the money.

Edited October 20, 2019 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[cdsacken]

17 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

BvS has a 1.99 multiplexer

Indeed horrific legs. Some of the worst ever for a such an expensive disappointing  film. 

Edited October 20, 2019 by cdsacken

[hasanahmad]

4 hours ago, The Futurist said:

Jared Leto s take on he Joker was at least fresh, original and creative.

 

But people like to chew the same gum over and over again.

They like monotony and predictability.

 

Thats reality though.

Fresh turd

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Lots of movies get campaigned for awards, sometimes it's contractual and to assuage egos but nobody really thinks the movie has a realistic chance at Best Picture:

 

 

Sometimes the movie might have a legit shot for the technical categories, but the studio figures, "Hey, we might as well throw in Best Picture/Director in ads while we're at it!" But there will also be ads specific to the category (VFX, Production Design, Sound Editing, etc).

 

With Endgame, I doubt Disney has huge expectations of a Best Picture nomination, but it got record breaking box office, it was a conclusion to a lenghty series in a way, Black Panther made it in last year, so why not try? It's not like they don't have the money.

Unlike Transformers, it also has better reviews (overall and top critic) than several of the supposed front runners.  If the Oscar Best Picture category voting was like 2009 & 2010 [the better system and the reason why the BP category was expanded to 10] it would have a better chance.  But there were voters who wouldn't even watch Black Panther let alone vote for it calling it trash, and there will be far more like that for AEG.

[Xftg123]

19 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

there were voters who wouldn't even watch Black Panther let alone vote for it calling it trash, and there will be far more like that for AEG.

Funny thing is it's kind of like that with Joker too: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscar-voters-react-joker-avoiding-it-1245781

 

People either hate it, love it, or are avoiding it completely. The one thing everyone agrees on though is that Joaquin Phoenix gave a great performance.

Edited October 20, 2019 by Xftg123

[charlie Jatinder]

M2 14.25

Joker 12.25

Zombies 9.75

 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

84 is 4x as high a dislike proportion as 96.

 

My rough impression of how new RT aud functions is:

100-95:great  

94-88: good  

87-75: medium  

74-60: bad  

<60: awful

I read it with impression that its bit hard but good bar, but then I read its about audience response not critics.  

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

M2 14.25

Joker 12.25

Zombies 9.75

 

Respectively 

+40%

+42%

+27%  

 

All pretty close to what was expected, I think.

[Xftg123]

43 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

M2 14.25

Joker 12.25

Zombies 9.75

I never expected a 2M  difference between Mal2 and Joker. Goes to show that both movies can coexist at the box office.

 

Adding up the totals for all three movies from Friday-Saturday: Mal2's 26.75, Joker's 20.86, and Zomb2's 20.6 so far.

 

Depending on how Sunday turns out, this actually could be a first where all three movies end up grossing over 30M domestically 😁

[charlie Jatinder]

@a2k what are probable legs for Maleficent. can it pull 3x to 110 approx.

[cdsacken]

I think 110m sounds about right and 450 overall. Huge letdown from first film. Barely breaks even but doesn't cost them anything.

[Xftg123]

7 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I think 110m sounds about right and 450 overall. Huge letdown from first film. Barely breaks even but doesn't cost them anything.

Wow that's a lot lower than I thought. I remember seeing online that tracking would be 50M and it would end up making anywhere from 160 to 175M, so the numbers must've been overestimated than under. Wow.

[narniadis]

9 minutes ago, Xftg123 said:

Wow that's a lot lower than I thought. I remember seeing online that tracking would be 50M and it would end up making anywhere from 160 to 175M, so the numbers must've been overestimated than under. Wow.

Tracking is never perfect. One thing you will learn with more consistence in following the box office is that not only is the opening tracking flexible, trying to gauge the end total before the film comes out and word of mouth / reception is known is literally guess work. Nobody with legitimate following expected the 160+ especially as the tracking continued to lower instead of increase. Given the word of mouth and what we have seen, a 3x is commendable for the time of year - IF it manages that.

 

Adding another film into the 100-115m pool seems to be the end game.

[Ryan Reynolds]

surprised ZL2 is holding well, the matinee i went to was empty

Edited October 20, 2019 by Ryan Reynolds

[narniadis]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

M2 14.25

Joker 12.25

Zombies 9.75

 

Thanks Charlie - as Thanos noted, its pretty darn close to expected at least for Joker and M2.

 

Should have estimates in the area of 36m / 29.5 / 27.5 or so depending on how the studios view Sunday. M2 may be 35 if Disney sees it dropping hard in comparison - which as a family film isn't out of norm.

Solid weekend overall - not huge, but with 3 over 25m and a solid hold from Addams Family, the top 5 is all decent for the time of year.

33 minutes ago, Xftg123 said:

I never expected a 2M  difference between Mal2 and Joker. Goes to show that both movies can coexist at the box office.

 

Adding up the totals for all three movies from Friday-Saturday: Mal2's 26.75, Joker's 20.86, and Zomb2's 20.6 so far.

 

Depending on how Sunday turns out, this actually could be a first where all three movies end up grossing over 30M domestically 😁

And no, there is no way that Sunday plays in such a way that both newbies turn over 30m and Sunday would need to be really solid (as has been the case the last 2 weeks) for Joker to manage it. Estimate for Joker may be 30m on the dot then the actual can go either way.

Zombieland is going to be well under 30m in total best being 28m - solid, definitely and it held stronger than I expected personally for Saturday.

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

surprised ZL2 is holding well, the matinee i went to was empty

Yeah, I really expected it to be more frontloaded - which seems to show that walk-ups were pretty good for it.

[Legion Again]

I think Maleficent can do to 125ish with early indicators of reception and the upcoming schedule. Won't commit to much until we've seen the first 10 days though.

[titanic2187]

4 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Unlike Transformers, it also has better reviews (overall and top critic) than several of the supposed front runners.  If the Oscar Best Picture category voting was like 2009 & 2010 [the better system and the reason why the BP category was expanded to 10] it would have a better chance.  But there were voters who wouldn't even watch Black Panther let alone vote for it calling it trash, and there will be far more like that for AEG.

One key flaw of measuring a film critical reception through RT score is that never tell us how generous or how strict the critics community to a film. The score never tell us what ruler a film is assessed based on. 

 

Like in this case, Endgame had 94%, higher than Saving private ryan's 93% but there is no way both film are seen as equivalent in cinematic history. And how many critics will put Endgame in their yearly top list remain to be seen. Endgame did its 94% RT score based on its own different measurement system while different other films are assessed on different scale.  

[Legion Again]

27 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I think Maleficent can do to 125ish with early indicators of reception and the upcoming schedule. Won't commit to much until we've seen the first 10 days though.

Just to expwnd on this a tad, I was thinking of how Alice2 and Slop2 didn't have much worse legs than their predecessors, despite/because of the big OW drop.    

 

Lego Movie 1 to 2 is even more similar though (69M 2014 OW legs to 250M +-10, sequel 5 years later) and the legs dropped more than I remembered. Though it got HtTYD in 3rd weekend, whereas Malificent doesn't have much competition until Frozem double feature weekend, and could feasibly get some small measure of Halloween help.