Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)

[filmlover]

Just now, babz06 said:

The Lighthouse is going wide next weekend? How wide are we talking? 

I don't know but it's opening at a lot of theaters around here so if I had to guess around 300-400.

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, SLAM! said:

In 2017, Lady Bird managed to reach the Top Ten in its 2nd weekend--with just 37 theaters.

 

For its 2nd weekend, Parasite stands a great Top Ten chance as it plays in 33 theaters.

Parasite's PTA is going to be about 40-45% higher

 

[charlie Jatinder]

54 minutes ago, Eric Addams said:

People who are better at extrapolating PTAs: this should lead to at least 60K, right? Maybe even 70K?

not an 'checked it' guess, but from 27 I think 30+ Saturday & 20+ Sunday are least that can be expected. Surely 80+.

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Looks like Disney's gonna have to give Maleficent 2 the A Wrinkle in Time treatment to get it past $100M. Overseas will need to pull through but their hits are big enough that they can afford to take an L every now and then.

The first Maleficent had good legs and the targeted audience voting on RT seem to like it so I don't see where it would need a push but Frozen's coming so it will probably get one regardless with double features.  Seems to have opened OK O/S so it's not an Alice 2.  It could even hit $450-500m WW which would a win for it, just not a sizable win.

[Xftg123]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Seems to have opened OK O/S so it's not an Alice 2.  It could even hit $450-500m WW which would a win for it, just not a sizable win.

Agreed. Plus, from what I've seen in the O/S threads, there are some countries where Joker is overtaking Maleficent 2.

[titanic2187]

11 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Deadpool 2 was at $254.5m after the 3rd w/e and in June with schools most out. 

Thor 3's 3rd at $247m was slammed by JL opening -  but after that was Thanksgiving week

 

Closest comparison from here on out might be It.  Had a 3rd w/e drop of 50% with $29.7m - though it's 3rd w/e total should be about $20m higher than Joker.

I do think about It but due to its horror nature, so.....

 

[marveldcfox]

Really happy for zombieland 2. Ruben Fleischer lives to see another day.

[Barnack]

8 hours ago, The Futurist said:

Common sense here being that yes,  JAWS has aged A LOT and it just wouldn't work at all with current audiences.

 

Not sure that criteria is necessarily a good one to use, Raging Bull and Schindler List aged incredibly well, would they work much with current audiences ? If Schindler list would not work today, does that mean it didn't age well or simply that taste shifted ?

 

New excellent movie like Drive and Kiss Kiss Bang Bang didn't work with modern audience and it is not because they have aged.

 

There is a bit of a difference between taste shift and not aging well because movie did better and better of a very similar thing since.

 

If we talk of a vacuum experience is hard to imagine how current audience would react hearing that incredible John Williams score for the first time, not sure it is even possible to try it (that something that age movie a lot and not really a in a vaccuum, how much classic are used everywhere in pop culture and can now feel cliche because of it).

Edited October 19, 2019 by Barnack

[narniadis]

Great for Zombieland, eh to meh for Maleficent not as bad as Alice as others have pointed out, but again, Disney had known they had another meh film gross wise so its not surprising. 

 

A reminder again about Joker that last week/ weekend was filled with holidays that affected/ inflated to gross somewhat. The film is behaving just fine, Fridays number is not bad, worst so far, etc.... it will have a higher drop especially since the Sunday wont be inflated. Its not hard to understand especially when you follow domestic box office for awhile. 

[titanic2187]

25 minutes ago, SLAM! said:

In 2017, Lady Bird managed to reach the Top Ten in its 2nd weekend--with just 37 theaters.

 

For its 2nd weekend, Parasite stands a great Top Ten chance as it plays in 33 theaters.

good to see some rebound in arthouse theater business after the horrendous 1st half. 

[narniadis]

The Spielberg discussion has been fun to follow. Hard to make a top 5, but ET wouldnt be anywhere close to mine (neither would Tin Tin lol.) 

Have a hard time seeing some of his best hits doing the same thing now as tastes have changed over the decades. Schindler's List wouldnt make nearly anywhere close to 100m now, but I dont see it being any less well received. 

The Post was so middle of the road its sleepy. 

[Alex SciChannel]

23 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I don't know but it's opening at a lot of theaters around here so if I had to guess around 300-400.

300-400 theaters isnt a wide release, that's still limited. A wide release is 1,000 theaters or more.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

300-400 theaters isnt a wide release, that's still limited. A wide release is 1,000 theaters or more.

Hence, wide-ish (600+ theaters is officially considered wide by BOM's standards). 300-400 theaters isn't completely inaccessible like a 5 or 10 or even 50 theater count (unless you live in those areas) is.

Edited October 19, 2019 by filmlover

[sfran43]

WIDE (1000+)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Maleficent: Mistress of Evil	$37,500,000	—	3,790	—	$9,894	$37,500,000	1	Disney
2	Joker	$29,700,000	-47%	4,090	-284	$7,262	$247,724,004	3	Warner Bros.
3	Zombieland: Double Tap	$25,650,000	—	3,468	—	$7,396	$25,650,000	1	Sony Pictures
4	The Addams Family	$17,700,000	-42%	4,102	95	$4,315	$58,459,027	2	United Artists Releasing
5	Gemini Man	$8,200,000	-60%	3,642	0	$2,252	$36,216,543	2	Paramount Pictures
6	Abominable	$3,800,000	-37%	2,647	-849	$1,436	$54,215,070	4	Universal Pictures
7	Downton Abbey	$2,900,000	-41%	2,258	-761	$1,284	$88,432,460	5	Focus Features
8	Judy	$2,000,000	-38%	1,418	-209	$1,410	$18,962,138	4	Roadside Attractions / LD Entertainment
9	Hustlers	$2,000,000	-49%	1,575	-782	$1,270	$2,000,000	6	STX Entertainment
10	It Chapter Two	$1,500,000	-52%	1,528	-775	$982	$209,654,518	7	Warner Bros
11	Jexi	$1,100,000	-65%	2,332	0	$472	$5,619,684	2	Lionsgate / CBS / Entertainment One

LIMITED (100 — 999)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Ad Astra	$800,000	-57%	796	-882	$1,005	$48,664,771	5	20th Century Fox
2	Rambo: Last Blood	$545,000	-64%	930	-901	$586	$44,067,166	5	Lionsgate
3	The Lion King	$405,000	-41%	325	-1362	$1,246	$543,088,628	14	Walt Disney Pictures
4	Scary Stories to Tell In The Dark	$165,000	-33%	219	-127	$753	$68,167,304	11	CBS Films / Lionsgate
5	Dora and the Lost City of Gold	$110,000	-22%	147	-77	$748	$60,467,018	11	Paramount Pictures
6	Toy Story 4	$105,000	-34%	145	-44	$724	$433,730,484	18	Disney
7	Angel Has Fallen	$90,000	-38%	168	-120	$536	$68,878,413	9	Lionsgate
8	Lucy In The Sky	$65,000	-17%	231	33	$281	$279,095	3	Fox Searchlight

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Parasite	$1,300,000	238%	33	30	$39,394	$1,880,642	2	NEON
2	Jojo Rabbit	$430,000	—	5	—	$86,000	$430,000	1	Fox Searchlight
3	The Art of Racing in the Rain	$45,000	1%	66	-23	$682	$26,392,699	11	20th Century Fox
4	Aladdin	$35,000	21%	45	-28	$778	$355,564,840	22	Disney
5	Immortal Hero	$20,000	—	12	—	$1,667	$20,000	1	Freestyle Releasing
6	47 Meters Down: Uncaged	$20,000	-59%	51	-48	$392	$22,232,261	10

[Alex SciChannel]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Hence, wide-ish. 300-400 theaters isn't completely inaccessible like a 5 or 10 or even 50 theater count is.

I still think its opening more than 1,000. Because Doctor Sleep is going to be limited 400 theaters on October 30th and the closest theater to my area is 45 minutes away in a neighboring county.

 

But when I check The Lighthouse for the 24th its shows all the typical theaters I usually go to for tentpoles and other wide releases. 

 

Sure this is anecdotal, but I live in typical white kid suburbia so it's not like my area is likely to be an outlier. 

[Cap]

All right, all right, all right. Time to update a spreadsheet. 
 

[charlie Jatinder]

Joker seems like 11.5-11.75

Maleficent 2 13.5

Edited October 19, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[cdsacken]

Yikes on Mal 2 Saturday. Can't wait for Disney +. Did you guys do the 3 year deal for $150?

[TMP]

3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Did you guys do the 3 year deal for $150?

I'll get a free trial when any of the shows I'm interested in ends

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Joker seems like 11.5-11.75

Maleficent 2 13-13.5

lower than expected for both imo

 

using 13.5 Sat for Mal and 25-30% Sun drop,

2.3 + 10.2 + 13.5 (+32%) + 9.5 (-30%) = 35.5

2.3 + 10.2 + 13.5 (+32%) + 10.1 (-25%) = 36.1

 

using 11.75 for JK and 30-35% Sun drop gives 28.0-28.6