Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)

[sfran43]

 

[cdsacken]

4 hours ago, HeadShot said:

So is joker gonna do 1 billion WW? That would be cool.   Also what's the projected total global gross for Mal2?

Nope. Mal 2 ww gross probably 500 or less. Depends on overseas. Domestic will be awful.

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

37.5*3.25 = 122 dom is the high-end for MAL2 dom IMO.

110-115 likely.

85-90 in China for 200 odd from these 2 markets.

475-500 WW I guess.

Edited October 19, 2019 by a2k

[sfran43]

1	-	Maleficent: Mistress of Evil	BV	$12,500,000	-	-	3,790	$3,298	$12,500,000	1
2	-	Zombieland 2: Double Tap	Sony	$10,550,000	-	-	3,468	$3,042	$10,550,000	1
3	1	Joker (2019)	WB	$8,610,000	+105%	-49%	4,090	$2,105	$226,634,004	15
4	2	The Addams Family (2019)	UAR	$4,100,000	+178%	-58%	4,102	$1,000	$44,859,027	8
5	3	Gemini Man	Par.	$2,300,000	+113%	-69%	3,642	$632	$30,316,543	8
6	4	Downton Abbey	Focus	$870,000	+43%	-40%	2,258	$385	$86,402,460	29
7	6	Abominable	Uni.	$870,000	+129%	-49%	2,647	$329	$51,285,070	22
8	8	Hustlers	STX	$610,000	+91%	-49%	1,575	$387	$100,431,912	36
9	5	Judy	RAtt.	$570,000	+39%	-40%	1,418	$402	$17,532,138	22
10	-	Parasite (2019)	Neon	$430,000	+942%	+261%	33	$13,030	$1,010,642	8
11	10	It: Chapter Two	WB (NL)	$400,000	+124%	-54%	1,528	$262	$208,554,518	43
12	9	Jexi	LGF	$348,000	+56%	-70%	2,332	$149	$4,867,684	8
-	11	Ad Astra	Fox	$235,000	+47%	-58%	796	$295	$48,099,771	29
-	12	Rambo: Last Blood	LGF	$143,000	+30%	-64%	930	$154	$43,665,166	29
-	-	Jojo Rabbit	FoxS	$138,000	-	-	5	$27,600	$138,000	1
-	-	The Lion King (2019)	BV	$80,000	+10%	-50%	325	$246	$542,763,628	92
-	-	Immortal Hero	Free	$6,563	-	-	12	$547	$6,563	1
-	-	Serendipity (2019)	Cohen	$298	-	-	2	$149	$298	1

[Jake Gittes]

45 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

This sort of confirm that the people avoided to see the film during its open week due to security concern and they decided to see this afterward,

But... this might be its least impressive day yet? It's looking at a bigger drop than last weekend.

[sfran43]

 

[Eric Duncan]

4 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

People who are better at extrapolating PTAs: this should lead to at least 60K, right? Maybe even 70K?

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

But... this might be its least impressive day yet? It's looking at a bigger drop than last weekend.

Lost some theatres and competition from R-rated ZL2.

Been 10-years since ZL1 released and those who loved it then might be incels grownups by now giving J a direct fight.

Edited October 19, 2019 by a2k

[Jake Gittes]

Outstanding for Parasite. Looking at comparable platform sensations this is heading for a better second weekend PTA drop than Grand Budapest Hotel, Birdman and Moonlight. 20m is definitely in play. 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Eric Addams said:

People who are better at extrapolating PTAs: this should lead to at least 60K, right? Maybe even 70K?

For an art house film - should be $80k+

[Maxmoser3]

Really good for Zombieland 2! Maleficent good to see go up, but will probably come close to $40 million but not by much.

[cookie]

2 minutes ago, Eric Addams said:

People who are better at extrapolating PTAs: this should lead to at least 60K, right? Maybe even 70K?

80k+ sounds good to go unless Saturday underperforms.

Edited October 19, 2019 by cookie

[CoolioD1]

5 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

But... this might be its least impressive day yet? It's looking at a bigger drop than last weekend.

i think they mean the people who were cautious about seeing it opening weekend, saw it on the second weekend which is why it had a great drop last weekend and this weekend is more standard.

[Old Spice]

1 hour ago, A Star is Orm said:

SO many greats from which to choose, but just off the top of my head...

 

1. Raiders of the Lost Ark

2. Lincoln

3. Bridge of Spies

4. Jaws

5. Jurassic Park

With most directors a top 5 isn't that hard; with Spielberg it's impossible. Can't believe I forgot Schindler, Minority, and ET. Need to check out Tin-Tin.

 

Thinking Joker winds up around $27.5 this weekend, but next weekend should hold better with Gemini losing screens and Zombie probably taking a big hit.

[titanic2187]

6 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

But... this might be its least impressive day yet? It's looking at a bigger drop than last weekend.

they go during mid-week or 2nd weekend

[cdsacken]

I've been saying this for a week. Zombieland doing 25m is near direct competition. Mal 2 not so much.

 

Still think it's gonna easily push past 300 by the end of the month.

[Jake Gittes]

2 minutes ago, Eric Addams said:

People who are better at extrapolating PTAs: this should lead to at least 60K, right? Maybe even 70K?

All comparisons point to 80-90k unless it's somehow frontloaded. 

[Litio]

Poor Angelina, Disney probably kidnapped some of her children and someone needs to pay the price of rescue. That would explain why she's getting into these weird projects.
While Brad Pitt was having fun with DiCaprio and Tarantino, Angelina is saving her children. What an amazing human she is! 

[Eric Duncan]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

For an art house film - should be $80k+

 

5 minutes ago, cookie said:

80k+ sounds good to go unless Saturday underperforms.

 

Just now, Jake Gittes said:

All comparisons point to 80-90k unless it's somehow frontloaded. 

 

Happy to hear. Was nervous Daddy Iger was gonna mess this up